As you all know, with Duke up by 2, Coach K told Zubek to miss the 2nd free throw. Was this a good idea? My earlier post forgot chance of Zubek missing free throw even if he tried to make it (thanks to Michael for this point). Let’s assume Zubek is 50%-50% to make free throw if he tries. The results stay pretty similar.
Pobounds = chance Butler hits a 3 after a made free throw and
PmissFT = chance Butler hits a 3 after a missed Free throw.
Butler’s chance of winning if Duke misses free throw intentionally is PmissFT and Butler’s chance of winning if Zubek tries to make Free Throw is .5(.5Pobounds )+.5*PMissFt
(if you believe Butler has 50% chance of triumphing in OT) Therefore Duke should have missed the FT if .5(.5Pobounds )+.5*PMissFT>PMissFT
My friend and I believe PMissFT = .10 and Pobounds = .20. Therefore decision looks like a wash. So when in doubt I would take the option that does not leave me open to second guessing (not missing FT). Clearly, this is a close call and you can defend either choice.
Of course, I am assuming Butler rebounds the missed free throw. .