March 21, 2010

Updated NCAA Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:02 pm

What a first round! Most brackets are not worth the paper they are printed on (though our son is in 98.5% ile). Here are updated winning chances based on simulation with Sagarin point ratings from USA Today. For example, Kentucky has a 17.4% chance to go all the way. It looks like a 3 or lower seed has a 27% chance to win, and my best guess is 2 teams that are 3 seeds or below will make it to Indianapolis.

 

  Win exactly
Team 2 games 3 games 4 games 5 games 6 games
Kentucky 0.237 0.2834 0.1988 0.107 0.1738
Duke 0.3658 0.2026 0.1814 0.0956 0.1546
Syracuse 0.3224 0.2692 0.1346 0.1296 0.1442
Kan St 0.3874 0.3076 0.1176 0.0916 0.0958
West Va. 0.296 0.3552 0.1716 0.0834 0.0938
Ohio St 0.4094 0.221 0.1922 0.1006 0.0768
Baylor 0.4012 0.3532 0.141 0.054 0.0506
Purdue 0.6342 0.1622 0.1134 0.0464 0.0438
Tennesee 0.5906 0.1978 0.1294 0.0512 0.031
Mich St 0.4764 0.291 0.1516 0.0518 0.0292
Xavier 0.6126 0.232 0.082 0.0462 0.0272
N Iowa 0.5236 0.2902 0.1224 0.0428 0.021
Butler 0.6776 0.1912 0.0702 0.0406 0.0204
Saint Mary’s 0.5988 0.282 0.0774 0.0244 0.0174
Cornell 0.763 0.1544 0.0552 0.0172 0.0102
Washington 0.704 0.207 0.0612 0.0176 0.0102

The following table gives the chance each team will make it to a given round. For example, Kentucky has a 48% chance of winning at least 4 games (making Final 4). Thus no team has more than a 50% chance of making the final 4. Next week should be amazing

Win at least
2 games 3 games 4 games 5 games 6 games
Kentucky 1 0.763 0.4796 0.2808 0.1738
Duke 1 0.6342 0.4316 0.2502 0.1546
Syracuse 1 0.6776 0.4084 0.2738 0.1442
Kan St 1 0.6126 0.305 0.1874 0.0958
West Va. 1 0.704 0.3488 0.1772 0.0938
Ohio St 1 0.5906 0.3696 0.1774 0.0768
Baylor 1 0.5988 0.2456 0.1046 0.0506
Purdue 1 0.3658 0.2036 0.0902 0.0438
Tennesee 1 0.4094 0.2116 0.0822 0.031
Mich St 1 0.5236 0.2326 0.081 0.0292
Xavier 1 0.3874 0.1554 0.0734 0.0272
N Iowa 1 0.4764 0.1862 0.0638 0.021
Butler 1 0.3224 0.1312 0.061 0.0204
Saint Mary’s 1 0.4012 0.1192 0.0418 0.0174
Cornell 1 0.237 0.0826 0.0274 0.0102
Washington 1 0.296 0.089 0.0278 0.0102

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