March 14, 2010

Fixing the Raptors

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:29 am

The Toronto Raptors have gone 1-8 in their last 9 games and have lost 4 in a row. If the Bulls start winning, the Raptors may be out of the playoffs.  As we will see, the Raptors could be so much better!

    For the season the Raptors have played 2 points worse than average. The players who have hurt the Raptors are Nesterovich (-10 Adjusted +/-), De Rozan (-7 Adjusted +/-), Banks (-9) and Weems (-3). DeRozan’s -7Adjusted +/- means, for example, that if DeRozan played a whole game instead of an average NBA player, we estimate the Raptors would play 7 points worse. Also DeRozan (-26 points 4th quarter Adjusted +/-) and Weems (-18 points 4th quarter Adjusted +/-) have killed the Raptors in the 4th quarter.

In the 940 minutes when DeRozan, Weems, Banks, and Rasho are out the Raptors have been excellent: 5 points better than average. So reducing the minutes for the aforementioned players should help the team.  There are many other ways, however to improve the Raptors choices of lineups. All numbers below are per 48 minutes and adjusted for strength of opponent’s players on the court:

  • When the core (Bargnani, Bosh and Hedo) is in, the Raptors play much better with Calderon at the point (9 points better than average) than with Jack (4 points worse than average).
  • When Chris Bosh is out and  Amir Johnson is out the Raptors get killed (16 points worse than average). But when Amir replaces Bosh the Raptors are only 1  point worse than average. Breaking it down further we find that with Johnson, Bargnani and Jack in and the other two players chosen from Wright, DeRozan, Calderon , Bellinelli and Weems the Raptors are 19 points better than average in 143 minutes!
  • Bargnani, Bosh and Belinelli in is great (218 minutes, Raptors play 15 points better than average). With Wright also in the Raptors are awesome (60 min, 33 points better than average per 48 minutes!).

Here is a summary of how well the most used lineups have performed for the Raptors. The key numbers for each lineup are the first number and minutes played. For example, lineup 1A has played 354 minutes and played 11 points worse than average per 48 minutes. Note 2A simply replaces Jack by Calderon and plays 15 points better than 1A. So why does lineup 1A play more often? Below we have boldfaced many of the Raptors excellent lineups that have been underutilized. For example, 8C has played 50 points better than average.       

TOR     -10.80 (   -3.33    2.09    5.42    0.44   -0.32    4.09)  354.39 minutes   99 appearances     1 A    -12.60      -93 $
Bargnani      Bosh          DeRozan       Jack          Turkoglu      25.46 years       4394_TOR_2010

TOR       5.48 (    0.37    5.16    4.79   14.05    0.25    4.28)  264.22 minutes   75 appearances     2 A      0.91        5 $
Bargnani      Bosh          Calderon      DeRozan       Turkoglu      25.88 years       4154_TOR_2010

TOR      -0.57 (    5.83   11.10    5.26   39.50    1.24    2.37)  120.57 minutes   71 appearances     3 A     -2.79       -7 $
Bargnani      Bosh          Calderon      Jack          Turkoglu      27.03 years       4378_TOR_2010

TOR       4.77 (    0.40    9.15    8.75   -3.63   -0.16    2.86)   85.13 minutes   37 appearances     4 A      2.82        5 $
Bargnani      Bosh          Jack          Turkoglu      Weems         26.08 years      12554_TOR_2010

TOR      -5.59 (  -16.76    3.47   20.23  -37.78   -2.45    4.72)   72.80 minutes   18 appearances     5 A    -12.53      -19 $
Bargnani      DeRozan       Jack          Nesterovic    Turkoglu      27.03 years       5410_TOR_2010

TOR       2.95 (   -5.00    5.41   10.41   -4.80   -0.61    4.23)   70.70 minutes   31 appearances     6 A      5.43        8 $
Bargnani      Bosh          DeRozan       Jack          Weems         24.00 years       8490_TOR_2010

 TOR      15.31 (    5.36    7.85    2.49   -1.03    0.23    2.50)   54.60 minutes   36 appearances     1 B     12.31       14 $
Bargnani      Bosh          Calderon      Turkoglu      Wright        26.98 years      20506_TOR_2010
TOR      -4.99 (   -3.75    1.03    4.78  -15.82   -0.79    4.11)   54.50 minutes   25 appearances     2 B     -4.40       -5 $
Bargnani      Bosh          DeRozan       Jack          Wright        24.49 years      16682_TOR_2010

 

TOR      15.94 (   -0.01    8.10    8.11  -19.88   -0.63    2.91)   54.06 minutes   23 appearances     3 B     22.20       25 $
Bargnani      Bosh          Jack          Weems         Wright        25.10 years
      24842_TOR_2010

TOR      23.37 (    6.37   15.36    8.99   33.20    1.19    2.24)   53.77 minutes   34 appearances     4 B     18.75       21 $
Bargnani      Belinelli     Bosh          Calderon      Turkoglu      26.55 years       4126_TOR_2010

TOR      10.90 (    3.08    5.25    2.16   10.56    0.47    2.53)   46.77 minutes   35 appearances     5 B     12.31       12 $
Bargnani      Belinelli     Jack          Johnson       Turkoglu      25.52 years       4870_TOR_2010

TOR       7.81 (    4.74    4.20   -0.53   14.84    0.70    2.87)   43.56 minutes   35 appearances     6 B     13.22       12 $
Belinelli     Bosh          Jack          Johnson       Turkoglu      25.83 years       4876_TOR_2010

TOR      24.45 (    2.67   12.28    9.61   19.58    0.62    2.38)   41.89 minutes   31 appearances     7 B     25.21       22 $
Bargnani      Belinelli     Bosh          Jack          Turkoglu      26.14 years       4366_TOR_2010

TOR       1.53 (    2.67    4.19    1.53   -5.70    0.00    2.61)   40.49 minutes   31 appearances     8 B      8.30        7 $
Bargnani      Belinelli     Jack          Johnson       Wright        24.54 years      17158_TOR_2010

TOR     -10.83 (   -2.92   -4.95   -2.03   -8.59   -0.48    4.21)   40.12 minutes   25 appearances     9 B    -16.75      -14 $
Bargnani      DeRozan       Jack          Johnson       Turkoglu      24.84 years       4898_TOR_2010

        TOR       8.38 (    8.03    6.23   -1.80   12.21    0.80    2.74)   37.95 minutes   29 appearances     1 C      8.85        7 $
Belinelli     Bosh          Calderon      Johnson       Wright        25.27 years      16924_TOR_2010

TOR       5.14 (    8.44    7.28   -1.16   28.46    1.27    2.62)   37.46 minutes   27 appearances     2 C      3.84        3 $
Belinelli     Bosh          Calderon      Johnson       Turkoglu      26.25 years       4636_TOR_2010

TOR      22.23 (    5.76    3.10   -2.67  -11.00    0.01    3.35)   36.73 minutes   26 appearances     3 C     31.36       24 $
Bosh          Calderon      Johnson       Weems         Wright        25.22 years      25112_TOR_2010

TOR       4.22 (    1.66    4.77    3.12  -14.65   -0.34    2.55)   35.55 minutes   33 appearances     4 C      5.40        4 $
Bargnani      Bosh          Jack          Turkoglu      Wright        26.56 years      20746_TOR_2010

TOR      24.35 (    2.25   11.23    8.98    3.32    0.15    2.47)   29.58 minutes   29 appearances     5 C     19.47       12 $
Bargnani      Belinelli     Bosh          Jack          Wright        25.16 years      16654_TOR_2010

TOR     -53.21 (    6.37    7.27    0.90    7.92    0.56    2.49)   29.55 minutes   24 appearances     6 C    -53.61      -33 $
Bargnani      Belinelli     Calderon      Johnson       Wright        24.96 years      16918_TOR_2010

TOR      -8.67 (    1.00   15.61   14.61   14.34    0.33    2.79)   29.02 minutes   14 appearances     7 C     -9.92       -6 $
Bargnani      Belinelli     Bosh          Jack          Weems         24.68 years       8462_TOR_2010

TOR      49.87 (    5.96   14.31    8.35   16.94    0.72    2.36)   25.09 minutes   16 appearances     8 C     47.82       25 $
Bargnani      Belinelli     Bosh          Calderon      Wright        25.58 years      16414_

2 Comments »

  1. Hey, Wayne … your numbers are only “history”… and as we know, historians are people who think backwards. Somehow I think that Triano does not coach by the numbers, only by hit or miss.

    Comment by FAQ — March 14, 2010 @ 5:32 pm

  2. So, your bolded parts tell us that we should start Andrea, Chris, Antoine, Marco & Jose, while subbing Amir, Hedo & Jack, with Sonny as the 9th-man, period. My problems with it are that I want DeRozan to develop, and I hate watching Antoine & Marco play, for different reasons. One plays crazy, out-of-his-head, while the other doesn’t belong in the rotation of an NBA team. I’d rather play Sonny & DeMar, and give them the opportunity to improve ASAP. It isn’t as if we’re going to win a series this year anyways.

    Comment by Boko — March 15, 2010 @ 9:27 am

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