March 8, 2010

Improving the Lakers

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:50 pm

The Lakers have clearly struggled on their recent 0-3 road trip. What are the problems and how can they be solved? Of course, Kobe is below par due to several injuries. Rest would probably help here. But there are other more pressing problems. 

Looking at the last two weeks our Adjusted +/- data reveals the following:

  • Artest and Bynum have been playing much worse on offense.
  • Brown, Farmar, and Gasol have been playing much worse on defense.

Like most teams, the Lakers often play suboptimal lineups. Here are the Lakers best lineups.

  • Note that 6A and 9A rest Kobe well. For example, 6A with Brown and Odom replacing Bynum and Bryant has played an amazing 33 points per game better than average (we do adjust for strength of opponents).
  •     1C , 3C and 8C do a great job of resting  Artest.
  • 2B and 3C, 8C and 9C  do a great job of resting Gasol

     LAL      11.06 (    8.31    4.20   -4.11   22.78    1.42    3.55)  584.36 minutes  165 appearances     1 A      9.28      113 $
Artest        Bryant        Bynum         Fisher        Gasol         29.71 years        109_LAL_2010

LAL       8.91 (   12.79    3.78   -9.01   31.92    2.02    4.31)  380.36 minutes  144 appearances     2 A      5.17       41 $
Artest        Bryant        Bynum         Fisher        Odom          29.84 years        557_LAL_2010

LAL      11.32 (   18.44    9.37   -9.07   56.24    3.12    3.00)  233.64 minutes  146 appearances     3 A      6.78       33 $
Artest        Bryant        Fisher        Gasol         Odom          31.30 years        613_LAL_2010

LAL       9.24 (   12.13    4.08   -8.06   27.04    1.77    4.38)  138.07 minutes   85 appearances     4 A     11.47       33 $
Brown         Bryant        Farmar        Gasol         Odom          27.63 years        598_LAL_2010

LAL      32.56 (    9.20   -0.35   -9.55   27.69    1.51    3.68)   85.04 minutes   38 appearances     6 A     25.97       46 $
Artest        Brown         Fisher        Gasol         Odom          29.85 years        611_LAL_2010

LAL       8.85 (   -0.11   -9.76   -9.64  -18.67   -0.51    4.13)   74.14 minutes   35 appearances     9 A     11.65       18 $
Artest        Brown         Bynum         Farmar        Odom          25.93 years        539_LAL_2010

       LAL      19.55 (   14.77    5.55   -9.22   34.20    2.20    3.69)   59.13 minutes   56 appearances     1 B     19.48       24 $
Artest        Bryant        Farmar        Gasol         Odom          28.84 years        597_LAL_2010

LAL      23.12 (    9.12   -0.04   -9.16    9.89    1.11    4.60)   55.56 minutes   39 appearances     2 B     24.19       28 $
Artest        Bryant        Bynum         Farmar        Odom          27.38 years        541_LAL_2010

   LAL      36.14 (   15.80    7.90   -7.91   49.08    2.69    3.94)   36.05 minutes   22 appearances     1 C     30.63       23 $
Brown         Bryant        Fisher        Gasol         Odom          30.10 years        614_LAL_2010

LAL      37.71 (   10.16    2.31   -7.85   24.76    1.59    4.86)   34.84 minutes   18 appearances     3 C     37.20       27 $
Brown         Bryant        Bynum         Fisher        Odom          28.63 years        558_LAL_2010

LAL      12.31 (    5.53   -5.27  -10.80   32.25    1.30    7.05)   30.45 minutes   15 appearances     4 C     14.19        9 $
Artest        Bryant        Fisher        Mbenga        Odom          31.21 years        677_LAL_2010

LAL      12.53 (   -6.97   -7.23   -0.26  -33.42   -1.46    4.77)   29.87 minutes   16 appearances     5 C     24.11       15 $
Brown         Bryant        Bynum         Farmar        Powell        25.53 years       1054_LAL_2010

LAL      17.74 (   12.95    1.06  -11.89   36.01    2.09    4.23)   24.64 minutes   15 appearances     7 C     15.59        8 $
Artest        Brown         Bryant        Gasol         Odom          29.04 years        583_LAL_2010

LAL      34.75 (  -10.31  -11.96   -1.64  -55.64   -2.44    6.23)   23.97 minutes   12 appearances     8 C     34.05       17 $
Brown         Bynum         Farmar        Odom          Walton        25.85 years       4634_LAL_2010

LAL      19.69 (    7.31   -4.53  -11.83   11.69    0.99    4.94)   23.59 minutes   15 appearances     9 C     16.28        8 $
Artest        Brown         Bryant        Bynum         Odom          27.58 years        527_LAL_2010

Note that the lineups shown below play fairly often and have not done well.  For example, there is a 95% chance that 5A ‘s true ability level is 5 points better than average or worse. Why keep using it when there are better alternatives? For example. 3C with Fisher for Farmar (and other 4 guys same as 5A) has played an amazing 38 points better than average and is used less often than 5A. This certainly does not help the Lakers.

LAL      -9.29 (    6.49   -1.51   -8.00    2.72    0.67    5.02)  126.78 minutes   72 appearances     5 A     -9.46      -25 $
Brown         Bryant        Bynum         Farmar        Odom          26.17 years        542_LAL_2010

LAL       2.57 (   15.55   11.90   -3.65   21.29    1.98    4.04)   75.86 minutes   25 appearances     7 A      6.33       10 $
Bryant        Bynum         Fisher        Gasol         Odom          29.71 years        620_LAL_2010

LAL     -16.49 (   -0.93   -5.52   -4.59   -5.77   -0.19    2.78)   35.52 minutes   12 appearances     2 C    -17.57      -13 $
Artest        Brown         Bynum         Fisher        Gasol         28.26 years        107_LAL_2010

LAL     -30.21 (  -32.60  -25.76    6.84  -69.30   -4.55    4.69)   26.00 minutes   13 appearances     6 C    -12.92       -7 $
Brown         Farmar        Mbenga        Morrison      Powell        25.71 years       1426_LAL_2010

2 Comments »

  1. Recent trouble is worth playing attention to and everybody can at least try to improve even when they are going good but 8 positive lineups vs 2 negative used over 50 minutes in their season data is more in order than almost anybody.

    Comment by Crow — March 8, 2010 @ 8:34 pm

  2. Boston, Cleveland, Phoenix and Denver are pretty close to this split, this standard at least according to basketballvalue. Orlando is close. I don’t think anybody else is as good or better but I didn’t check everyone. By your measure is there much basis to score any team in this pack above the others in terms of the wisdom of lineup choice / usage?

    Comment by Crow — March 8, 2010 @ 8:44 pm

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URL

Leave a comment

Powered by WordPress