March 6, 2010

A Tip for the Bobcats and Thoughts on Rookie of the Year

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:12 am

The Bobcats are in a desperate struggle for the Eastern Conference’s last playoff spot.  They should note that when they play Gerald Wallace at the 5 they play 8 points (per 48 minutes and after adjusting for opponent’s strength) better than average. During other times Wallace is in, the Bobcats play 3 points worse than average. So going small more often makes sense for the Bobcats. So far when Wallace is in, the Bobcats go small only around 1/3 of the time!

Another tip for the Bobcats: When Henderson is in with Jackson and or Felton (around 100 minutes) the Bobcats are great: they play 17 points betterthan average. In Henderson’s other minutes the Bobcats play 16 points worse than average.

Rookie of the Year?

So who should be Rookie of the Year? In the media the buzz seems to be for Curry, Evans and Jennings and we agree. For players averaging over 23 minutes per game here are our rankings:

Rank Player Team Points Impact
57 JENNINGS MIL 1 19
58 CURRY GS 5 5
64 EVANS SAC 2 13
66 THORNTON NOH 4 1
89 HARDEN OKC 1 3
97 CASSPI SAC -1 10
134 GIBSON CHI -1 -6
146 LAWSON DEN -3 -3
154 DEROZAN TOR -6 0
176 COLLISON NOH -4 -17
179 JEREBKO DET -4 -20
186 FLYNN MIN -8 -17

For example, after adjusting for who he played with Jennings has played 1 point better than an NBA player (per 48 minutes) and Curry has played 5 points better.

        Impact rating gives more weight to how the team does when the game is on the line. Jenning’s impact of +19, for example means that if Jennings were on the court with 9 average NBA players, we estimate his team would win 69% of the games. This high impact means that in close games Jennings is really helping the Bucks win. Our overall ranking here gives equal weight to Impact and Points Rating. So as you can see,  Curry, Evans and Jennings are neck and neck. The Hornets’ Marcus Thorton has played well, but he plays many fewer minutes than Curry, Evans and  Jennings. My guess is Evans will win the award, because the media believes Jennings has tailed off after his early 55 point game. In terms of impact, Jennings has been pretty solid all season and the Bucks are playing great, so I believe he deserves more consideration than he is getting.

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