February 28, 2010

Projected Final NBA Standings and Playoff Chances

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:08 pm

Note:My earlier results had an error. Thanks to Albert Cross for alerting me to this (I had a column wrong in a vlookup).

Through the games of February 27, 2010 I rated all NBA teams, giving more weight to more recent games (I gave, for example ,game 1 half the weight of the most recent games). Then I used the great Excel simulation add-in @RISK to play out the rest of the season. Here are projected final standings and each team’s playoff chances.  Some key points.

  • Note the race in the East looks like it will go down to the last day, while the West is not quite so close.  
  • Also note that the race in the West for 2nd and 3rd  is very close.
  •    I found the home edge this season to be around 2.7 points per game.
  • By the way there is an 79% chance that the Nets win at least 10 games, avoiding a date with infamy.

 

Team wins losses Playoff Chance
Cleveland Cavaliers 62 20 1
Orlando Magic 55 27 1
Atlanta Hawks 52 30 1
Boston Celtics 51 31 1
Miami Heat 43 39 0.84
Toronto Raptors 43 39 0.85
Milwaukee Bucks 43 39 0.83
Charlotte Bobcats 42 40 0.76
Chicago Bulls 42 40 0.72
Philadelphia 76ers 32 50 0
Washington Wizards 29 53 0
Detroit Pistons 29 53 0
Indiana Pacers 28 54 0
New York Knickerbockers 28 54 0
New Jersey Nets 11 71 0
Los Angeles Lakers 59 23 1
Utah Jazz 54 28 1
Denver Nuggets 54 28 1
Dallas Mavericks 52 30 1
Phoenix Suns 50 32 1
Oklahoma City Thunder 49 33 0.98
San Antonio Spurs 47 35 0.88
Portland Trail Blazers 47 35 0.88
Houston Rockets 42 40 0.11
New Orleans Hornets 41 41 0.08
Memphis Grizzlies 41 41 0.07
Los Angeles Clippers 32 50 0
Sacramento Kings 28 54 0
Golden State Warriors 26 56 0
Minnesota Timberwolves 19 63 0

1 Comment »

  1. If the Los Suns were wearing their uniforms to celebrate Cinco De Mayo, I would be all for it. .-

    Comment by Joseph Wright — May 6, 2010 @ 6:51 am

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