Note:My earlier results had an error. Thanks to Albert Cross for alerting me to this (I had a column wrong in a vlookup).
Through the games of February 27, 2010 I rated all NBA teams, giving more weight to more recent games (I gave, for example ,game 1 half the weight of the most recent games). Then I used the great Excel simulation add-in @RISK to play out the rest of the season. Here are projected final standings and each team’s playoff chances. Some key points.
- Note the race in the East looks like it will go down to the last day, while the West is not quite so close.
- Also note that the race in the West for 2nd and 3rd is very close.
- I found the home edge this season to be around 2.7 points per game.
- By the way there is an 79% chance that the Nets win at least 10 games, avoiding a date with infamy.
| Team | wins | losses | Playoff Chance |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 62 | 20 | 1 |
| Orlando Magic | 55 | 27 | 1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 52 | 30 | 1 |
| Boston Celtics | 51 | 31 | 1 |
| Miami Heat | 43 | 39 | 0.84 |
| Toronto Raptors | 43 | 39 | 0.85 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 43 | 39 | 0.83 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 42 | 40 | 0.76 |
| Chicago Bulls | 42 | 40 | 0.72 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 32 | 50 | 0 |
| Washington Wizards | 29 | 53 | 0 |
| Detroit Pistons | 29 | 53 | 0 |
| Indiana Pacers | 28 | 54 | 0 |
| New York Knickerbockers | 28 | 54 | 0 |
| New Jersey Nets | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 59 | 23 | 1 |
| Utah Jazz | 54 | 28 | 1 |
| Denver Nuggets | 54 | 28 | 1 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 52 | 30 | 1 |
| Phoenix Suns | 50 | 32 | 1 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 49 | 33 | 0.98 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 47 | 35 | 0.88 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 47 | 35 | 0.88 |
| Houston Rockets | 42 | 40 | 0.11 |
| New Orleans Hornets | 41 | 41 | 0.08 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 41 | 41 | 0.07 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 32 | 50 | 0 |
| Sacramento Kings | 28 | 54 | 0 |
| Golden State Warriors | 26 | 56 | 0 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 19 | 63 | 0 |
If the Los Suns were wearing their uniforms to celebrate Cinco De Mayo, I would be all for it. .-
Comment by Joseph Wright — May 6, 2010 @ 6:51 am