Note:My earlier results had an error. Thanks to Albert Cross for alerting me to this (I had a column wrong in a vlookup).
Through the games of February 27, 2010 I rated all NBA teams, giving more weight to more recent games (I gave, for example ,game 1 half the weight of the most recent games). Then I used the great Excel simulation add-in @RISK to play out the rest of the season. Here are projected final standings and each team’s playoff chances. Some key points.
- Note the race in the East looks like it will go down to the last day, while the West is not quite so close.
- Also note that the race in the West for 2nd and 3rd is very close.
- I found the home edge this season to be around 2.7 points per game.
- By the way there is an 79% chance that the Nets win at least 10 games, avoiding a date with infamy.
|New York Knickerbockers||28||54||0|
|New Jersey Nets||11||71||0|
|Los Angeles Lakers||59||23||1|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||49||33||0.98|
|San Antonio Spurs||47||35||0.88|
|Portland Trail Blazers||47||35||0.88|
|New Orleans Hornets||41||41||0.08|
|Los Angeles Clippers||32||50||0|
|Golden State Warriors||26||56||0|