February 26, 2010

Will the Bucks Make the Playoffs?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:43 am

The Bucks, Bobcats, Raptors, Heat and Bulls are engaged in a game of musical chairs for the last 4 Eastern Conference Playoff spots. Starting next week I will  be posting playoff odds, but because of the John Salmons trade I think the Bucks have a great shot. The Bulls gained cap room in this trade, but they may have sacrificed a playoff spot.

   Salmons has been great for the Bucks. With the Bucks his adjusted +/- Rating so far is 13 points better per 48 minutes than an average player. Even when Bogut or Jennings are out (the Bucks two other key players), the Bucks are better than average when Salmons is in. Here are some other key observations about the Bucks:

  • Bogut with a +6.5 point Adjusted +/- Rating ranks 36th in the NBA. His solid play is due to great defense (-6 Defense Rating). This means when Bogut is in the game Bucks give up 6 less points per game than they would if Bogut were replaced by an average NBA defender.
  • Jennings has an average points rating but ranks 36th in league in Impact, which measures how you change the chance of a team winning a game. Thus Jennings plays very well with the game on the line.
  • The Bucks are horrible when both Bogut and Ilyasova are out: 10 points worse than average.
  • When resting and Bogut, Ilyasova and Gadzuric in is good: Bucks play 10 points better than average.
  • With Jennings out, Ridnour, Bogut, Ilyasova and Ridnour in is great: 17 points better than average.

Using this information to create lineups should really help the Bucks.

Let’s close by looking at the Bucks best lineups (among those that play often).

Note 1B is great for resting Bogut. Also note that the new lineup 7A with Salmons is great. Also unbelievably the only difference between 1A and 2A is Ilyasova in for Moute. Yet 2A appears to be 20 points per game better and plays less. Why? Playing 2A 189 minutes and 1A 108 minutes would surely have won the Bucks a few games and those games might be the difference between a playoff birth and sitting at home in May.

MIL       5.24 (    6.67   -4.71  -11.38   17.56    0.99    3.57)  189.08 minutes   57 appearances     1 A      4.82       19 $
Bell          Bogut         Delfino       Jennings      Mbah a Moute  25.36 years        398_MIL_2010

MIL      25.98 (   10.20    3.19   -7.01   27.19    1.55    2.54)  117.93 minutes   48 appearances     2 A     25.24       62 $
Bell          Bogut         Delfino       Ilyasova      Jennings      25.23 years        206_MIL_2010

MIL       6.65 (    5.61    0.46   -5.15   22.11    1.02    3.95)  101.89 minutes   60 appearances     3 A      5.18       11 $
Bell          Bogut         Delfino       Jennings      Warrick       26.20 years      16526_MIL_2010

MIL       8.03 (    3.67   -3.69   -7.35   20.37    0.80    3.49)   97.93 minutes   27 appearances     4 A      7.35       15 $
Bogut         Delfino       Ilyasova      Jennings      Mbah a Moute  23.73 years        460_MIL_2010

MIL      27.81 (   15.98   -1.79  -17.77   40.81    2.25    6.11)   63.09 minutes   23 appearances     7 A     23.58       31 $
Bogut         Delfino       Jennings      Mbah a Moute  Salmons       25.21 years     262540_MIL_2010

MIL      10.28 (    8.32    2.18   -6.15   19.42    1.19    1.86)   47.93 minutes   15 appearances     1 B      5.01        5 $
Bell          Delfino       Gadzuric      Ilyasova      Jennings      26.59 years        234_MIL_2010

2 Comments »

  1. It’s not big deal but the Hornets are a Western Conference team.

    Comment by serhat — February 26, 2010 @ 10:21 am

  2. Thanks. I met Bobcats.

    Comment by wwinston — February 26, 2010 @ 1:46 pm

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