February 24, 2010

Can the Kings be Improved?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:25 pm

Recently the Kings have been in turmoil. Players have complained that Coach Paul Westphal plays inconsistent lineups.  The Kings have played more different lineups (470) than any other team.

   I’d like to chime in with some analysis of the Kings. I am writing from Toluca Mexico (teaching operations research here this week). 75 degrees and sunny.

    The Kings play 4 points worse than average for the season. The sad thing is they traded Rodriguez, who had played great. When Sergio was in the Kings were an amazing 9 points better than average(after adjusting for strength of opponents). When Sergio was out Kings played 7 points worse than average. Here are the lineups played most by the Kings. For example lineup 1A has played 100 minutes and plays 2 points worse than average.

Note the 4 lineups that play the most are all worse than average! 2A-4A are poor.     4B-6B are all above average; why not play them more!

     ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
SAC      -1.92 (   -5.67   -3.89    1.78   -5.12   -0.58    2.77)  100.01 minutes   28 appearances     1 A     -2.40       -5 $
Evans         Hawes         Nocioni       Thompson      Udrih         24.60 years      12836_SAC_2010

SAC      -9.24 (   -7.78   -4.29    3.49  -15.91   -1.02    2.25)   83.98 minutes   18 appearances     2 A     -6.29      -11 $
Evans         Greene        Hawes         Nocioni       Thompson      23.47 years       4660_SAC_2010

SAC     -10.54 (   -1.81   -3.92   -2.11    3.50   -0.07    2.19)   83.08 minutes   46 appearances     3 A    -13.87      -24 $
Casspi        Evans         Hawes         Thompson      Udrih         22.88 years      12326_SAC_2010

SAC      -8.89 (   -5.99   -0.55    5.44   10.93   -0.24    1.93)   73.86 minutes   21 appearances     4 A    -12.35      -19 $
Casspi        Evans         Greene        Hawes         Martin        22.45 years        118_SAC_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
SAC       1.94 (   -6.71   -4.95    1.77  -10.03   -0.82    1.84)   56.86 minutes   27 appearances     1 B     -2.53       -3 $
Casspi        Evans         Hawes         Martin        Thompson      22.77 years       4198_SAC_2010

SAC      -5.86 (   -2.48    1.33    3.81   -1.12   -0.24    2.12)   51.26 minutes   19 appearances     2 B     -9.36      -10 $
Casspi        Greene        Hawes         Thompson      Udrih         23.20 years      12338_SAC_2010

SAC      16.82 (  -10.58   -4.92    5.65  -18.65   -1.32    2.09)   49.54 minutes   17 appearances     3 B     10.66       11 $
Evans         Hawes         Martin        Nocioni       Thompson      24.48 years       4708_SAC_2010

SAC       3.35 (   -2.23    1.44    3.67   34.53    0.67    2.35)   44.92 minutes   26 appearances     4 B      6.41        6 $
Casspi        Evans         Nocioni       Thompson      Udrih         24.57 years      12806_SAC_2010

SAC       2.35 (   -1.45   -5.15   -3.70   -6.09   -0.26    2.20)   43.03 minutes   14 appearances     5 B     -4.46       -4 $
Evans         Greene        Hawes         Thompson      Udrih         22.95 years      12340_SAC_2010

SAC       0.94 (    2.00    0.19   -1.81   33.56    0.99    1.11)   40.66 minutes   28 appearances     6 B     -3.54       -3 $
Casspi        Evans         Greene        Thompson      Udrih         22.92 years      12310_SAC_2010

SAC       2.27 (   -3.92   -4.32   -0.40   -7.29   -0.51    1.73)   39.18 minutes   15 appearances     7 B      1.23        1 $
Casspi        Evans         Greene        Hawes         Thompson      21.76 years       4150_SAC_2010

SAC       1.87 (   -6.36   -6.18    0.18  -19.62   -1.01    1.90)   36.49 minutes   15 appearances     8 B      1.32        1 $
Evans         Greene        Hawes         Martin        Thompson      22.84 years       4212_SAC_2010

Some more comments on what works and what does not work: All numbers are per 48 minutes and are adjusted for strength of opponents.

  • So far with Landry in Kings play 19 points worse than average.
  • Brockman and Hawes in is poor: Kings play 20 points worse than average!
  • Thompson, Udrih, Casspi and Greene in with Hawes out is great: 71 minutes 16 points better than average
  • Nocioni, Udrih and Casspi in with Evans Brockman and Udoka out is great: 37 points better than average in  106 minutes.
  • Evans , Udoka and Udrih in with Casspi out is great: 13 points better than average in 130 minutes.
  • Brockman and Evans in with Hawes out is good: In 288 minutes Kings play 9 points better than average.
  • With Rodriguez and Udrih out Kings are 8 points worse than average. But when Evans, Brockman and Casspi are in with these guys out Kings are fine: 5 points better than average,

You can’t blame Westphal for trying to find something that works. Looking at this data should make it easier to find the right combinations.

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