Recently the Kings have been in turmoil. Players have complained that Coach Paul Westphal plays inconsistent lineups. The Kings have played more different lineups (470) than any other team.
I’d like to chime in with some analysis of the Kings. I am writing from Toluca Mexico (teaching operations research here this week). 75 degrees and sunny.
The Kings play 4 points worse than average for the season. The sad thing is they traded Rodriguez, who had played great. When Sergio was in the Kings were an amazing 9 points better than average(after adjusting for strength of opponents). When Sergio was out Kings played 7 points worse than average. Here are the lineups played most by the Kings. For example lineup 1A has played 100 minutes and plays 2 points worse than average.
Note the 4 lineups that play the most are all worse than average! 2A-4A are poor. 4B-6B are all above average; why not play them more!
ACTUAL THEORY OFF DEF IMPACT ZSCORE SIGMA PLAYING TIME SIMPLE �
SAC -1.92 ( -5.67 -3.89 1.78 -5.12 -0.58 2.77) 100.01 minutes 28 appearances 1 A -2.40 -5 $
Evans Hawes Nocioni Thompson Udrih 24.60 years 12836_SAC_2010
SAC -9.24 ( -7.78 -4.29 3.49 -15.91 -1.02 2.25) 83.98 minutes 18 appearances 2 A -6.29 -11 $
Evans Greene Hawes Nocioni Thompson 23.47 years 4660_SAC_2010
SAC -10.54 ( -1.81 -3.92 -2.11 3.50 -0.07 2.19) 83.08 minutes 46 appearances 3 A -13.87 -24 $
Casspi Evans Hawes Thompson Udrih 22.88 years 12326_SAC_2010
SAC -8.89 ( -5.99 -0.55 5.44 10.93 -0.24 1.93) 73.86 minutes 21 appearances 4 A -12.35 -19 $
Casspi Evans Greene Hawes Martin 22.45 years 118_SAC_2010
ACTUAL THEORY OFF DEF IMPACT ZSCORE SIGMA PLAYING TIME SIMPLE �
SAC 1.94 ( -6.71 -4.95 1.77 -10.03 -0.82 1.84) 56.86 minutes 27 appearances 1 B -2.53 -3 $
Casspi Evans Hawes Martin Thompson 22.77 years 4198_SAC_2010
SAC -5.86 ( -2.48 1.33 3.81 -1.12 -0.24 2.12) 51.26 minutes 19 appearances 2 B -9.36 -10 $
Casspi Greene Hawes Thompson Udrih 23.20 years 12338_SAC_2010
SAC 16.82 ( -10.58 -4.92 5.65 -18.65 -1.32 2.09) 49.54 minutes 17 appearances 3 B 10.66 11 $
Evans Hawes Martin Nocioni Thompson 24.48 years 4708_SAC_2010
SAC 3.35 ( -2.23 1.44 3.67 34.53 0.67 2.35) 44.92 minutes 26 appearances 4 B 6.41 6 $
Casspi Evans Nocioni Thompson Udrih 24.57 years 12806_SAC_2010
SAC 2.35 ( -1.45 -5.15 -3.70 -6.09 -0.26 2.20) 43.03 minutes 14 appearances 5 B -4.46 -4 $
Evans Greene Hawes Thompson Udrih 22.95 years 12340_SAC_2010
SAC 0.94 ( 2.00 0.19 -1.81 33.56 0.99 1.11) 40.66 minutes 28 appearances 6 B -3.54 -3 $
Casspi Evans Greene Thompson Udrih 22.92 years 12310_SAC_2010
SAC 2.27 ( -3.92 -4.32 -0.40 -7.29 -0.51 1.73) 39.18 minutes 15 appearances 7 B 1.23 1 $
Casspi Evans Greene Hawes Thompson 21.76 years 4150_SAC_2010
SAC 1.87 ( -6.36 -6.18 0.18 -19.62 -1.01 1.90) 36.49 minutes 15 appearances 8 B 1.32 1 $
Evans Greene Hawes Martin Thompson 22.84 years 4212_SAC_2010
Some more comments on what works and what does not work: All numbers are per 48 minutes and are adjusted for strength of opponents.
- So far with Landry in Kings play 19 points worse than average.
- Brockman and Hawes in is poor: Kings play 20 points worse than average!
- Thompson, Udrih, Casspi and Greene in with Hawes out is great: 71 minutes 16 points better than average
- Nocioni, Udrih and Casspi in with Evans Brockman and Udoka out is great: 37 points better than average in 106 minutes.
- Evans , Udoka and Udrih in with Casspi out is great: 13 points better than average in 130 minutes.
- Brockman and Evans in with Hawes out is good: In 288 minutes Kings play 9 points better than average.
- With Rodriguez and Udrih out Kings are 8 points worse than average. But when Evans, Brockman and Casspi are in with these guys out Kings are fine: 5 points better than average,
You can’t blame Westphal for trying to find something that works. Looking at this data should make it easier to find the right combinations.