February 1, 2010

The NBA in January: A Review

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:26 am

It is now unbelievably February. Through the lens of Adjusted +/-, let’s review the performance of each team in January. Note that an Adjusted  +/- of +10 means the player played 10 points better than average in January; An Offense rating of +5 means his team scores 5 more points per game than they would if an average offensive player replaced the player; a Defense rating of say -5 means his team gives up 5 fewer points per game than they would if an average defender replaced the player.


  Few Hawks did well. Joe Johnson played poorly (-13 Points rating) primarily due to poor defense (+10 rating). Rookie Jeff Teague showed improvement due to his great defense.


The Celtics played poorly. Main culprits include  KG (-11 points rating). KG’s Offense rating was a very poor -21. This means the Celtics offense ground to a jalt when KG was in. Glen Davis (-14 points rating) also played poorly.


Nazr Mohammed played poorly (-8 points rating). Flip Murray (+11 Points), Gerald Wallace (+15 points) Steven Jackson (+8 points) keyed the Bobcats continued success.


Luol Deng (+16 Points rating) continued his great play. John Salmons (+12 point rating) also was great. Everyone else stepped up their game a little bit, so it looks like the Bulls have gelled.


The King has a +21 rating for January and has continued his season long great play. Shaq has really improved. Through December his Points rating was -4 and in January it jumped to +4.


The Mavs had a poor January due to poor defensive guard play. Barea (+7 defense), Terry (+9) and Kidd (+18) have all  killed the Mavs with their poor defensive play. The bright spot wasrookie Roddie Beaubois who played poorly through December (-15 Points rating) but played at at -3 level in January. James Singleton had a great Janauary (+16 rating, -11 Defense Rating).


    This team is totally keyed by the great play of  Nene and Birdman, both of whom had a +23 Points rating in January. Billups and Melo are not nearly as important as the media believes.


Rodney Stuckey (+7 points rating) keyed their limited success. Ben Wallace (-14 Defense rating) has been a defensive  pillar of strength. Charlie V (-14 Points rating) and the backup centers killed the Pisotns in January.

Golden State

Andris Biedrins (-11 Points rating) has played poorly. Rookie Stephen Curry (+7 points rating) has been great.


David Andersen (+7 Points Rating) played very well. Chuck Hayes (-9 Points Rating , -11 Offense Rating) has killed the Rockets’ offense.


 The Pacers have two stars . Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy both have +10 points ratings for January and the season. Solomon Jones (-25 Points rating) and Troy Murphy (-14 points rating) have really hurt the team in January and all season.

LA Clippers

Marcus Camby, Baron Davis, and Chris Kaman (all +5 Points rating0 have been solid in January. Craig Smith (+22 point rating) has been fantastic.

LA Lakers

Ron Artest (-1 Point rating) has not been the same player since suffering a concussion and dealing with foot issues. Sasha Vujacic (+16 Points rating) has been great, Kobe (+16 Points rating) has played great while battling injuries. Gasol (+6 Points rating) and Odom (+9 Points Rating) have been solid.


The wrong  Gasol got chosen for the all star team: Marc Gasol had a +22 point rating in January with a -18 Defense rating. Zach Randolph continued his great play (+10 Points Rating) while rookie Hasheem Thabeet slipped a bit( Points Rating of +9 through December and -1 in January). Sam Young (-15 Points rating) really hurt the Griz.


Alston, Arroyo, Jones, and Chalmers played poorly in January (-14 Point rating).  DWade continuted his wonderful play (+22 points rating). Dorrell Wright (+11 points rating in January) has been great all year.


Charlie Bell (+10 Points rating) had a great month.


Rookie Jonny Flynn (-13 Points Rating, +12 Defense rating) continued to kill the Wolves on defense. Ryan Hollins (+1 Point Rating) greatly improved his play. Sasha Pavlovic (-25 Points Rating) killed the Wolves on both ends of the court.

New Jersey

Kenyon Dooling (+5 Points Rating) and Brook Lopez (+2 Points Rating) have been the main green shoots here.

New Orleans

Marcus Thornton (+9 Points rating) and Chris Paul (+8 Points rating) were a solid backcourt in January.

New York

Jonathan Bender (-22 Points Rating), Toney Douglas (-28 points rating) and Chris Duhon (-10 Points rating) have killed the Knicks. Gallo (+7 points rating) and Jeffries (+5 Points rating) have been solid.


KD with his +26 points rating was the league’s best player in January.  Jeff Green (-10 Points Rating) has hurt the team all season.


Backup center Gortat (-1 points rating) has greatly improved in January while Brnadon Bass (-25 Points Rating) is struggling to fit in. Rashard Lewis (-14 Points Rating) has struggled all season.


Nothing too interesting to report here.  Despite an excellent PER rating Marreese Speights (Points Rating of -10, Defense Rating of +8) has hurt the 76ers.


The Suns set quickly in January. Teams caught on to Frye and his points rating through December of +13 dropped to +2. Amare, Richardson, Hill, Dragic and Amundson had Points ratings for January between -9 and -11. Robin Lopez was the lone bright spot with a +9 Points Rating.


Amazing they are still afloat after all those injuries. Batum (+16), Bayless (+10), Miller (+13) and Webster (+13) all had great Point Ratings in January. The replacement centers (Howard  -18 and Pendergraph -14) have played poorly.


 The Kings had a dismal January. . Sergio Rodirguez (+18 Points Rating for Janaury) has been great all year.Beno Udrih’s Points rating in January was -4 which is a big drop from his +8 Points Rating through December. Udoka  (-10 Points rating) also played poorly in January.

San Antonio

 Bogans  and Hill (-8 Points Ratings) struggled in January. Duncan (+10 Points Rating) played to his usual All Star Level. Matt Bonner missed most of the month but has played at a +10 Points level all year and his return should really help the Spurs.


The Raptors had a great month. Amir Johnson (+20 Points Rating -23 Defense Rating) and Maro Bellinelli (+14 Points Rating) were amazing, Calderon (+11 Points Rating) and Bosh (+9 Points Rating )  and Antoine Wright (+8 Points Rating) were also solid. Only rookie Demar DeRozan (-7 Points Rating) struggled.


The Jazz had an excellent January sparked by Deron Williams (+17 Points rating). AK47, Boozer and Korver all had Points Ratings around  +10 for January, so they also played very well


Despite the off court turmoil, the Wizards kept soldiering on. Butler and Jamison (+5 Points Rating) were solid. Brendon Haywood (+11 Points Rating, -17 Defense Rating) has been great all season and gets no respect. Foye (-12 Points Rating) and Boykins (-22 Points Rating) killed the Wizards in January.


  1. Hi Wayne:

    Great analysis as always – I was curious about JKidd’s defensive rating – can you attribute how much of a hit it took because he sat out the Knicks game last Sunday? The Mavs were off the charts on both offensive and defensive efficiencies for that game, so I was curious what his rating would be if you removed the Knicks from the sample vs. including it.


    Comment by Dan Jiddish — February 1, 2010 @ 3:12 pm

  2. It might make a 1 point difference or so. This has been a problem all season for Mavs. I saw the game Saturday when Miller dropped 52 points after scoring a total of 5 in the two previous games,

    Comment by wwinston — February 1, 2010 @ 5:14 pm

  3. Thanks for the response – I kept an eye on the change over at basketballvalue.com, and noticed that his 1 year rating went from -7 to -12 after sitting out that one game (I believe). Granted, their methodologies are different.

    Comment by Dan Jiddish — February 1, 2010 @ 5:27 pm

  4. Hi, will you be doing an analysis on Dallas soon? I’m wondering what has been their best lineup so far in this season. Given the talent level of their roster, they don’t seem to be playing together as well as expected.

    Comment by Matrix Fan — February 2, 2010 @ 1:17 am

  5. The poor defensive play of the guards is the problem. They also need improved play by Howard. Gooden and Barea play poorly togerther.

    Comment by wwinston — February 2, 2010 @ 9:08 am

  6. Hi Wayne,

    please allow me a question concerning the Mavs line-up. Would you consider a Nowitzki, Marion, Howard, Terry, Kidd line-up worth a try? In my opinion one of the major reasons for the decline of the Mavericks has been Erick Dampiers return to earth after a terrific start. This line-up without the now below average players Dampier and Gooden has been on the floor just for short stints so far, but would combine arguably the 5 best Mavs.


    Comment by Bjoern — February 2, 2010 @ 1:14 pm

  7. I agree. I thought before the season thiswould be their best lineup.

    Comment by wwinston — February 2, 2010 @ 4:04 pm

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