Almost surely 3 teams with better than .500 records will not make the playoffs in the Western Conference. Since firing coach Byron Scott after a 3-6 start, the Hornets have played much better. Still it looks like they may be one of teams on the outside looking in on April 17. With better substitution patterns, I believe the Hornets can make the playoffs.
Obviuously the Hornets’ success is keyed by their great point guard Chris Paul. His Adjusted +/- rating is +8 which means that after adjusting for who Paul has played with and against our best estimate is that he makes an average team 8 points better per 48 minutes. What is really surprising is that unsung rookie Marcus Thornton has been great; Adjusted +/- of +7 points. Also I do not think the Hornets have noticed the great improvement in Julian Wright’s play (Adjusted +/- of +7).
Here are some specific recommendations on how the Hornets can improve their performance:
- When Paul is in with Posey the Hornets play 8 points better than average. When Paul is in with Thornton or Wright the Hornets play 11 points better than average, The rest of the time Paul is in the Hornets play as an average NBA team. It seems like upping Thornton’s and Wright’s minutes would improve the Hornet’s performance.
- When Paul is out the Hornets (unsuprisingly) play poorly: 7 points worse than average. However, when Paul is out and Collison, Posey , Wright and Thornton are in the Hornets play 24 points better than average. Certainly this combo should be used more with Paul out. The rest of the time Paul is out the Hornets play 11 points worse than average.
Here is a summary of how well the Hornets main lineups play. For example, lineup 1A has played 496 minutes and is only 4 points better than average. (you may ignore the other numbers). Note linupes 1B, 2B, 3B, 8B 11B 2C , and 4C have played great. All these lineups meet the criteria listed above They should certainly play more minutes. Many of the listed lineups play poorly and deserve fewer minutes.
ACTUAL THEORY OFF DEF IMPACT ZSCORE SIGMA PLAYING TIME SIMPLE �
NOH 3.76 ( 2.51 4.48 1.98 17.52 0.61 5.46) 496.31 minutes 145 appearances 1 A 2.80 29 $
D. Brown Okafor Paul Stojakovic West 28.96 years 10434_NOH_2010
NOH -4.30 ( -11.26 -1.47 9.79 -30.11 -1.39 3.95) 97.48 minutes 30 appearances 2 A -8.86 -18 $
D. Brown Collison Okafor Stojakovic West 28.50 years 10314_NOH_2010
NOH -2.63 ( 4.03 0.31 -3.72 18.43 0.79 6.33) 83.83 minutes 20 appearances 3 A -5.15 -9 $
Okafor Paul Peterson West Wright 27.24 years 25024_NOH_2010
NOH -18.51 ( 4.43 1.74 -2.69 -9.30 0.18 5.25) 53.99 minutes 21 appearances 4 A -27.56 -31 $
D. Brown Okafor Paul Songaila Stojakovic 29.47 years 3266_NOH_2010
ACTUAL THEORY OFF DEF IMPACT ZSCORE SIGMA PLAYING TIME SIMPLE �
NOH 25.08 ( -1.06 -1.47 -0.41 -3.54 0.04 5.61) 42.54 minutes 33 appearances 1 B 20.31 18 $
D. Brown Okafor Paul Posey West 29.04 years 8898_NOH_2010
NOH 32.71 ( 6.01 6.96 0.94 15.82 0.65 6.01) 40.60 minutes 29 appearances 2 B 33.10 28 $
Collison Posey Songaila Thornton Wright 26.48 years 22024_NOH_2010
NOH 8.26 ( 10.36 5.87 -4.49 45.45 1.61 5.55) 39.53 minutes 28 appearances 3 B 10.93 9 $
Paul Posey Songaila Thornton West 28.28 years 13952_NOH_2010
NOH -5.57 ( -14.83 -7.43 7.40 -51.16 -1.96 3.51) 36.55 minutes 16 appearances 4 B -9.19 -7 $
D. Brown Collison Okafor Posey West 28.58 years 8778_NOH_2010
NOH -5.44 ( 4.60 2.04 -2.56 36.69 1.01 6.73) 33.39 minutes 25 appearances 5 B -11.50 -8 $
Okafor Paul Posey Thornton West 27.36 years 12992_NOH_2010
NOH -42.31 ( -20.77 -15.93 4.84 -35.86 -2.39 5.92) 32.43 minutes 19 appearances 6 B -31.08 -21 $
Armstrong B. Brown Posey Songaila Stojakovic 29.55 years 3589_NOH_2010
NOH -24.39 ( -9.17 -3.92 5.25 -10.93 -1.00 5.83) 30.03 minutes 14 appearances 7 B -28.77 -18 $
Collison Okafor Posey Thornton West 26.90 years 12872_NOH_2010
NOH 6.79 ( 8.17 7.99 -0.18 57.75 1.57 6.46) 28.53 minutes 16 appearances 8 B 15.14 9 $
Okafor Paul Stojakovic Thornton West 27.28 years 14528_NOH_2010
NOH -30.66 ( -3.41 -0.09 3.32 -2.17 -0.39 5.23) 27.80 minutes 15 appearances 9 B -31.08 -18 $
Collison Posey Songaila Thornton West 27.82 years 13832_NOH_2010
NOH -42.15 ( -14.88 -17.09 -2.21 -79.49 -2.83 8.04) 27.60 minutes 16 appearances 10 B -27.83 -16 $
Armstrong Collison Posey Songaila Thornton 26.97 years 5641_NOH_2010
ACTUAL THEORY OFF DEF IMPACT ZSCORE SIGMA PLAYING TIME SIMPLE �
NOH 34.17 ( 6.52 -0.70 -7.22 9.87 0.57 6.54) 26.78 minutes 17 appearances 11 B 32.27 18 $
Okafor Paul Posey Songaila Thornton 27.87 years 5824_NOH_2010
ACTUAL THEORY OFF DEF IMPACT ZSCORE SIGMA PLAYING TIME SIMPLE �
NOH -34.58 ( -22.69 -13.19 9.50 -9.04 -1.96 5.69) 25.27 minutes 19 appearances 1 C -30.39 -16 $
Armstrong B. Brown Posey Stojakovic West 29.05 years 10757_NOH_2010
NOH 51.54 ( 13.93 11.83 -2.10 66.51 2.17 5.01) 24.76 minutes 16 appearances 2 C 50.41 26 $
Paul Songaila Stojakovic Thornton West 28.20 years 15488_NOH_2010
NOH 11.08 ( -4.45 3.78 8.23 33.55 0.22 5.72) 21.51 minutes 16 appearances 3 C 13.39 6 $
B. Brown Okafor Paul Stojakovic West 27.82 years 10436_NOH_2010
NOH 40.34 ( 12.07 9.26 -2.81 90.00 2.55 5.39) 21.23 minutes 16 appearances 4 C 36.18 16 $
Paul Posey Stojakovic Thornton West 28.42 years 14976_NOH_2010
Wright had a good 3-game stretch but his last two have been abysmal. Substitution pattern’s fault, or just his temperament?
Comment by MC Welk — January 26, 2010 @ 5:20 pm
He is inconsistent. Cannot say much from a few games but last night was bad. He was better in December. Thornton playing more with trade should help the salary cap and team performance.
Comment by wwinston — January 26, 2010 @ 5:46 pm
Hey Mr. Winston. With the all-star game upon us, any chance you’d bless us with the “plus/minus all star teams” for each conference?
Comment by HoopsFan — January 31, 2010 @ 7:50 pm
I will do this on Huffington Post after SuperBowl.
Comment by wwinston — February 2, 2010 @ 10:16 am