January 25, 2010

Can the Hornets make the Playoffs?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:23 am

Almost surely 3 teams with better than .500 records will not make the playoffs in the Western Conference. Since firing coach Byron Scott after a 3-6 start, the Hornets have played much better. Still it looks like they may be one of teams on the outside looking in on April 17.  With better substitution patterns, I believe the Hornets can make the playoffs.

   Obviuously the Hornets’ success is keyed by their great point guard Chris Paul. His Adjusted +/- rating is +8 which means that after adjusting for who Paul has played with and against our best estimate is that he makes an average team 8 points better per 48 minutes. What is really surprising is that unsung rookie Marcus Thornton has been great; Adjusted +/- of  +7 points. Also I do not think the Hornets have noticed the great improvement in Julian Wright’s play (Adjusted +/- of +7).

  Here are some specific recommendations on how the Hornets can improve their performance:

  • When Paul is in with Posey the Hornets play 8 points better than average. When Paul is in with Thornton or Wright the Hornets play 11 points better than average, The rest of the time Paul is in the Hornets play as an average NBA team. It seems like upping Thornton’s and Wright’s minutes would improve the Hornet’s performance.
  • When Paul is out the Hornets (unsuprisingly) play poorly: 7 points worse than average. However, when Paul is out and Collison, Posey , Wright and Thornton are in the Hornets play 24 points better than average. Certainly this combo should be used more with Paul out. The rest of the time Paul is out the Hornets play 11 points worse than average.

Here is a summary of how well the Hornets main lineups play. For example, lineup 1A has played 496 minutes and is only 4 points better than average. (you may ignore the other numbers). Note linupes 1B, 2B, 3B, 8B 11B  2C , and 4C have played great.  All these lineups meet the criteria listed above They should certainly play more minutes. Many of the listed lineups play poorly and deserve fewer minutes.

       ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
NOH       3.76 (    2.51    4.48    1.98   17.52    0.61    5.46)  496.31 minutes  145 appearances     1 A      2.80       29 $
D. Brown      Okafor        Paul          Stojakovic    West          28.96 years      10434_NOH_2010

NOH      -4.30 (  -11.26   -1.47    9.79  -30.11   -1.39    3.95)   97.48 minutes   30 appearances     2 A     -8.86      -18 $
D. Brown      Collison      Okafor        Stojakovic    West          28.50 years      10314_NOH_2010

NOH      -2.63 (    4.03    0.31   -3.72   18.43    0.79    6.33)   83.83 minutes   20 appearances     3 A     -5.15       -9 $
Okafor        Paul          Peterson      West          Wright        27.24 years      25024_NOH_2010

NOH     -18.51 (    4.43    1.74   -2.69   -9.30    0.18    5.25)   53.99 minutes   21 appearances     4 A    -27.56      -31 $
D. Brown      Okafor        Paul          Songaila      Stojakovic    29.47 years       3266_NOH_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
NOH      25.08 (   -1.06   -1.47   -0.41   -3.54    0.04    5.61)   42.54 minutes   33 appearances     1 B     20.31       18 $
D. Brown      Okafor        Paul          Posey         West          29.04 years       8898_NOH_2010

NOH      32.71 (    6.01    6.96    0.94   15.82    0.65    6.01)   40.60 minutes   29 appearances     2 B     33.10       28 $
Collison      Posey         Songaila      Thornton      Wright        26.48 years      22024_NOH_2010

NOH       8.26 (   10.36    5.87   -4.49   45.45    1.61    5.55)   39.53 minutes   28 appearances     3 B     10.93        9 $
Paul          Posey         Songaila      Thornton      West          28.28 years      13952_NOH_2010

NOH      -5.57 (  -14.83   -7.43    7.40  -51.16   -1.96    3.51)   36.55 minutes   16 appearances     4 B     -9.19       -7 $
D. Brown      Collison      Okafor        Posey         West          28.58 years       8778_NOH_2010

NOH      -5.44 (    4.60    2.04   -2.56   36.69    1.01    6.73)   33.39 minutes   25 appearances     5 B    -11.50       -8 $
Okafor        Paul          Posey         Thornton      West          27.36 years      12992_NOH_2010

NOH     -42.31 (  -20.77  -15.93    4.84  -35.86   -2.39    5.92)   32.43 minutes   19 appearances     6 B    -31.08      -21 $
Armstrong     B. Brown      Posey         Songaila      Stojakovic    29.55 years       3589_NOH_2010

NOH     -24.39 (   -9.17   -3.92    5.25  -10.93   -1.00    5.83)   30.03 minutes   14 appearances     7 B    -28.77      -18 $
Collison      Okafor        Posey         Thornton      West          26.90 years      12872_NOH_2010

NOH       6.79 (    8.17    7.99   -0.18   57.75    1.57    6.46)   28.53 minutes   16 appearances     8 B     15.14        9 $
Okafor        Paul          Stojakovic    Thornton      West          27.28 years      14528_NOH_2010

NOH     -30.66 (   -3.41   -0.09    3.32   -2.17   -0.39    5.23)   27.80 minutes   15 appearances     9 B    -31.08      -18 $
Collison      Posey         Songaila      Thornton      West          27.82 years      13832_NOH_2010

NOH     -42.15 (  -14.88  -17.09   -2.21  -79.49   -2.83    8.04)   27.60 minutes   16 appearances    10 B    -27.83      -16 $
Armstrong     Collison      Posey         Songaila      Thornton      26.97 years       5641_NOH_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
NOH      34.17 (    6.52   -0.70   -7.22    9.87    0.57    6.54)   26.78 minutes   17 appearances    11 B     32.27       18 $
Okafor        Paul          Posey         Songaila      Thornton      27.87 years       5824_NOH_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
NOH     -34.58 (  -22.69  -13.19    9.50   -9.04   -1.96    5.69)   25.27 minutes   19 appearances     1 C    -30.39      -16 $
Armstrong     B. Brown      Posey         Stojakovic    West          29.05 years      10757_NOH_2010

NOH      51.54 (   13.93   11.83   -2.10   66.51    2.17    5.01)   24.76 minutes   16 appearances     2 C     50.41       26 $
Paul          Songaila      Stojakovic    Thornton      West          28.20 years      15488_NOH_2010

NOH      11.08 (   -4.45    3.78    8.23   33.55    0.22    5.72)   21.51 minutes   16 appearances     3 C     13.39        6 $
B. Brown      Okafor        Paul          Stojakovic    West          27.82 years      10436_NOH_2010

NOH      40.34 (   12.07    9.26   -2.81   90.00    2.55    5.39)   21.23 minutes   16 appearances     4 C     36.18       16 $
Paul          Posey         Stojakovic    Thornton      West          28.42 years      14976_NOH_2010

4 Comments »

  1. Wright had a good 3-game stretch but his last two have been abysmal. Substitution pattern’s fault, or just his temperament?

    Comment by MC Welk — January 26, 2010 @ 5:20 pm

  2. He is inconsistent. Cannot say much from a few games but last night was bad. He was better in December. Thornton playing more with trade should help the salary cap and team performance.

    Comment by wwinston — January 26, 2010 @ 5:46 pm

  3. Hey Mr. Winston. With the all-star game upon us, any chance you’d bless us with the “plus/minus all star teams” for each conference?

    Comment by HoopsFan — January 31, 2010 @ 7:50 pm

  4. I will do this on Huffington Post after SuperBowl.

    Comment by wwinston — February 2, 2010 @ 10:16 am

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URL

Leave a comment

Powered by WordPress