January 14, 2010

Making the Wolves Howl Again

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:57 pm

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a terrible 8-32 record. Several disappointed Wolves fans and readers of this blog have asked me to analyze the Wolves. I believe the Wolves can be much better. Let’s look at the Adjusted +/- ratings of several key Wolves.

·        Gomes +9 and Love +13 have been great. Again an Adjusted +/- of +13 for Love means our best estimate is that Love makes the Wolves 13 points better per 48 minutes than an average NBA player. This estimated adjusts for who Love plays with and against.

·        Sessions with a -1 rating is much better than Flynn (-9 rating). Flynn has a poor +9 defense rating, which means we believe Flynn on the court causes the Wolves to yield 9 more points per game than the Wolves would yield if he were replaced by an average defender.

·        Hollins (-13 rating) and Pavlovic (-14 rating) have killed the Wolves. With Hollins in the Wolves are 19 points worse per game than an average team and with Pavlovic in the Wolves are 15 points worse than an average team.

Let’s look at the Wolves lineups that play most often:

We see for example, that lineup 2A (with Hollins and Flynn) is poor. This lineup plays 22.79 points per game worse than average in 112 minutes. The other poor lineups (1B 4B and 5B) also have Hollins or Pavlovic in or Flynn at point guard. On the other hand, lineups 6A, 2B, 3B , 6B, 1C and 2C are great but do not play much. The Wolves should certainly play these lineups more. Note Sessions plays in all but one of these good lineups. My personal favorite lineup is 3B,; Gomes Sessions and Love on the court together. In the 68 minutes with these 3 in (with Flynn and Hollins) out the Wolves play 30 points better than average!!

How to read numbers: First lineup played 2.05 points worse than average per game (1st number) in 241.61 minutes. In Raw +/- this lineup lost by 17 points (last number). Other numbers are not very important.

       ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      

MIN      -2.05 (   -5.82    1.63    7.45   -7.83   -0.70    7.94)  241.61 minutes   81 appearances     1 A     -3.38      -17 $

Brewer        Flynn         Jefferson     Love          Wilkins       24.20 years      17938_MIN_2010

 

MIN     -22.79 (  -16.70   -8.69    8.01  -30.64   -1.94    8.49)  111.63 minutes   37 appearances     2 A    -27.95      -65 $

Brewer        Flynn         Gomes         Hollins       Jefferson     24.45 years        690_MIN_2010

 

MIN      -4.86 (   -8.56   -1.35    7.20  -28.42   -1.30    6.86)  108.28 minutes   34 appearances     3 A    -10.64      -24 $

Brewer        Flynn         Gomes         Jefferson     Wilkins       25.40 years      16946_MIN_2010

 

MIN       4.03 (    3.99    1.13   -2.86   18.58    0.46    7.77)   82.93 minutes   31 appearances     4 A     -4.63       -8 $

Brewer        Flynn         Gomes         Jefferson     Pecherov      24.22 years       4658_MIN_2010

 

MIN       5.73 (    7.68    6.66   -1.02   15.04    0.54    8.73)   51.13 minutes   30 appearances     5 A      2.82        3 $

Brewer        Flynn         Gomes         Jefferson     Love          23.67 years       1586_MIN_2010

 

MIN      14.02 (    2.58    1.21   -1.37    5.35    0.10    6.36)   43.24 minutes   31 appearances     6 A     19.98       18 $

Brewer        Jefferson     Love          Sessions      Wilkins       24.76 years      26114_MIN_2010

 

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      

MIN     -16.76 (   -3.00    0.24    3.25   10.44   -0.16    6.72)   38.73 minutes   17 appearances     1 B    -17.35      -14 $

Brewer        Ellington     Flynn         Gomes         Jefferson     23.83 years        570_MIN_2010

 

MIN      25.77 (  -12.31   -8.03    4.28  -34.25   -1.65    8.98)   37.98 minutes   17 appearances     2 B     17.69       14 $

Brewer        Flynn         Gomes         Hollins       Jawai         24.10 years        434_MIN_2010

 

MIN      44.47 (   18.75    6.66  -12.09   40.04    1.76    6.10)   31.78 minutes   22 appearances     3 B     42.29       28 $

Ellington     Gomes         Jefferson     Love          Sessions      23.89 years       9768_MIN_2010

 

MIN     -52.19 (  -30.20  -13.72   16.48  -53.52   -3.18    5.09)   26.30 minutes   21 appearances     4 B    -54.75      -30 $

Brewer        Flynn         Hollins       Jefferson     Wilkins       24.98 years      17042_MIN_2010

 

MIN     -40.96 (   -4.20    2.35    6.55    2.86   -0.46    9.14)   26.18 minutes   18 appearances     5 B    -42.16      -23 $

Ellington     Jefferson     Love          Pavlovic      Sessions      23.65 years      11784_MIN_2010

 

MIN      30.20 (   10.35    7.08   -3.27   26.86    0.97    8.56)   25.50 minutes   22 appearances     6 B     30.12       16 $

Ellington     Flynn         Gomes         Jefferson     Love          23.32 years       1592_MIN_2010

 

MIN       2.97 (   -9.05   -4.11    4.94  -36.08   -1.39    8.33)   25.24 minutes   19 appearances     7 B      1.90        1 $

Jawai         Pavlovic      Pecherov      Sessions      Wilkins       25.42 years      30976_MIN_2010

 

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      

MIN      48.99 (   -6.94   -0.64    6.30  -17.73   -1.07    8.24)   22.58 minutes   13 appearances     1 C     51.01       24 $

Ellington     Gomes         Jefferson     Pavlovic      Sessions      24.85 years      10792_MIN_2010

 

MIN      45.41 (   12.39    0.71  -11.68   31.76    1.26    5.43)   20.17 minutes   10 appearances     2 C     38.08       16 $

Brewer        Gomes         Jefferson     Pecherov      Sessions      24.79 years      12834

6 Comments »

  1. Looks great, but is there anywhere where you explain what the columns actually mean? I get actual, that’s fine. Offense and Defense and Theory are fine. ZSCORE and SIGMA are stats terms. But IMPACT? SIMPLE? �? I’m a bit lost.

    Comment by KMils — January 15, 2010 @ 12:03 am

  2. Uh, hate to break it to you Wayne, but wolves don’t roar – they howl.

    Comment by Ben — January 15, 2010 @ 12:50 am

  3. I added a little explanation. Most numbers are not really very important.

    Comment by wwinston — January 15, 2010 @ 7:54 am

  4. Thanks!

    Comment by wwinston — January 15, 2010 @ 8:36 am

  5. This is another way the data could be laid out:

    Flynn-Brewer-Wilkins-Love-Jefferson

    PLAYING TIME 241.61 minutes
    81 appearances

    Salary $17M
    Avg Age 24.20 years

    SIMPLE -3.38

    ACTUAL -2.05
    THEORY 5.82

    OFF 1.63
    DEF 7.45

    IMPACT -7.83

    ZSCORE -0.70
    SIGMA 7.94

    Comment by Crow — January 15, 2010 @ 6:48 pm

  6. With as many numbers as you provide, I think it is very helpful to have the label right beside each datapoint to eliminate the need to search and try to match them up.

    Comment by Crow — January 15, 2010 @ 6:54 pm

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