January 14, 2010

Is the Magic Gone in Orlando?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:25 am

Despite their recent troubles, I believe the Magic have the best chance to make it out of the East this year. They have many excellent lineups (listed below). For example lineup 4A shown below with Nelson at the point plays 55 points per game better than an average NBA lineup.

   The Magic have a big problem when Dwight Howard is out. They play 11 points better per 48 minutes than average when Howard is in and 8 points worse than average when he is out.

      The Magic need to realize that Jason Williams needs to play the point when Howard is out. When Williams is at the point and Howard is out the Magic play only 1 point worse than average. When Nelson or Johnson is at the point and Howard is out the Magic are 17 points worse than average. Even better Williams, Redick, Pietrus, Gortat or Bass and Anderson or Lewis plays 24 points better than average!!

 

 

Good Magic Lineups

       ACTUAL    THEORY     TIME                             SIMPLE        

ORL       9.54 (   12.62    4.30   -8.31   22.45    1.30    8.64)  273.74 minutes   82 appearances     1 A      3.68       21 $

Carter        Howard        Lewis         Pietrus       Williams      29.88 years      10824_ORL_2010

 

ORL     

 

ORL      16.76 (    2.77   -7.57  -10.35   -5.51    0.05    8.41)   65.83 minutes   30 appearances     3 A     17.50       24 $

Carter        Howard        Lewis         Nelson        Pietrus       28.64 years       3656_ORL_2010

 

ORL      55.39 (   18.47   10.78   -7.69   53.65    2.35    5.74)   63.29 minutes   26 appearances     4 A     55.36       73 $

Anderson      Barnes        Howard        Nelson        Redick        25.79 years       5187_ORL_2010

 

 

ORL      36.62 (   20.63   15.68   -4.95   48.68    2.38    7.69)   41.00 minutes   22 appearances     7 A     25.75       22 $

Barnes        Carter        Howard        Lewis         Williams      30.26 years       8778_ORL_2010

 

ORL      26.50 (   -1.74   -2.62   -0.88  -12.98   -0.41    6.96)   34.93 minutes   21 appearances     2 B     32.98       24 $

Anderson      Gortat        Pietrus       Redick        Williams      27.01 years      14369_ORL_2010

 

ORL      28.01 (   20.30   11.28   -9.02   55.38    2.52    6.56)   34.52 minutes   24 appearances     3 B     25.03       18 $

Anderson      Howard        Pietrus       Redick        Williams      26.65 years      14401_RL_2010

 

ORL      12.12 (   20.72   14.95   -5.76   83.36    3.10    5.19)   31.77 minutes   19 appearances     7 B     16.62       11 $

Anderson      Barnes        Howard        A. Johnson    Redick        27.26 years       4291_ORL_2010

 

ORL      21.74 (   13.04    7.98   -5.06   50.44    1.88    7.67)   28.99 minutes   21 appearances     8 B     18.21       11 $

Barnes        Carter        Howard        A. Johnson    Lewis         30.49 years        714_ORL_2010

 

ORL      14.48 (   14.56    2.67  -11.89   25.89    1.50    6.80)   23.33 minutes   10 appearances     1 C     14.40        7 $

Barnes        Carter        Howard        Nelson        Pietrus       28.52 years       3146_ORL_2010

 

ORL      19.27 (    9.50    5.25   -4.25   53.24    1.71    7.73)   23.15 minutes   16 appearances     2 C     18.66        9 $

Carter        Howard        A. Johnson    Lewis         Redick        29.63 years       4808_ORL_2010

 

ORL      20.79 (   14.70   12.30   -2.40   41.65    1.84    7.81)   22.05 minutes   20 appearances     4 C     17.41        8 $

Barnes        Howard        Lewis         Redick        Williams      28.78 years      12866_ORL_2010

 

4 Comments »

  1. Hi Wayne

    Love your posts, any chance you can align the headers and put borders on your tables? Also perhaps a link to a page explaining each column? The html tables come out quite badly.

    Whilst calculating your data, how do you compensate for the possibility that some line-ups are more prone to play against the 2nd unit of the opposition and thus have a higher chance of having a positive impact?

    Comment by John — January 17, 2010 @ 4:07 am

  2. Thx. I will work on lineups looking better. We do adjust for strength of opponent, so it is harder to get a good rating against bad opponents.

    Comment by wwinston — January 17, 2010 @ 9:21 am

  3. Just looking at the old primitive stats for Orlando it’s hard not to notice that their worst shooter percentage-wise is also taking most of their shots. What’s your adjusted plus/minus for Carter? Maybe it’s as simple as he is not a good person for their offense to be running through, and the Jason Williams line-ups are the best non-Howard line-ups because those line-ups are the least likely to result in Carter taking shots?

    Comment by Will — January 18, 2010 @ 12:39 pm

  4. Carter has +5.7 adjusted+/, so he has been ok.

    Comment by wwinston — January 18, 2010 @ 2:02 pm

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