January 11, 2010

Latest Super Bowl Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:37 am

Based on the well known Sagarin ratings published in USA Today we replayed the rest of the NFL playoffs 5000 times. Here are the chances for each team to win their conference championship and the Super Bowl. We assume outcome of each game follows a normal random variable with mean margin for home team = home rating-away rating+3 and standard deviation 14 points.

NFC Championship chances

  1. Saints 48%
  2. Vikings 23%
  3. Cowboys 22%
  4. Cardinals 7%

AFC Championship Chances

  1.  Colts 37%
  2. Chargers 31%
  3. Jets 17%
  4. Ravens 15%

Super  Bowl

  1. Saints 26%
  2. Colts 19%
  3. Chargers 15%
  4. Vikings and Cowboys 11%
  5. Jets 9%
  6. Ravens 7%
  7. Cardinals 2%

2 Comments »

  1. Hi There,

    Just wanted to say your book was great and your blog continues that tradition. Thanks.

    Ed

    Comment by Ed — January 11, 2010 @ 7:18 pm

  2. Thanks so much!

    Comment by wwinston — January 11, 2010 @ 9:32 pm

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