January 4, 2010

NFL Playoff Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:35 pm

Based on the well known Sagarin ratings (see them on USA Today at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm) I simulated the NFL playoffs 5000 times. I reduced the Patriots rating by 3 points due to Welker’s injury.  The simulation “knows” how to compute home team in each 2nd and 3rd round game and matchups  based on results of previous games. Here are odds for each conference champion as well as Super Bowl.

AFC Champion

  • Colts 44%
  • Chargers 28%
  • Patriots 9%
  • Bengals 5%
  • Jets 9%
  • Ravens 5%

NFC

  • Saints 47%
  • Vikings 24%
  • Cowboys 13%
  • Cardinals 4%
  • Packers 8%
  • Eagles 4%

Super Bowl

  • Saints 27%
  • Colts 24%
  • Chargers 13%
  • Vikings 11%
  • Cowboys 6%
  • Patriots 4%
  • Jets 4%
  • Packers 3%
  • Ravens 3%
  • Eagles 2%
  • Bengals 2%
  • Cardinals 1%.

5 Comments »

  1. thanks…i will share …

    Comment by mike m — January 4, 2010 @ 5:53 pm

  2. Why 3 points for welker?

    Guestimate or data based?

    Comment by Deez — January 6, 2010 @ 5:16 pm

  3. Guess!

    Comment by wwinston — January 7, 2010 @ 12:31 am

  4. Very cool analysis. I am wondering how you apply the Sagarin rating for each team to generate a probability distribution for simulating the outcome of each game. Thanks!

    Comment by Boole — January 10, 2010 @ 2:12 am

  5. Thx. Simply assume outcome of game is a normal random variable with mean =rediciton from sagarin and sigma = 14 and play out the games.

    Comment by wwinston — January 10, 2010 @ 9:11 am

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