December 30, 2009

Some Wisdom for the Wizards.

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 2:57 pm

The Washington Wizards have been a big disappointment. Most preseason predictions placed the Wizards in the playoffs, but currently the Wizards are languishing in 12th place.  I believe the Wizards can easily improve their play. Adjusted +/- ratings (see Chapter 40 of my book Mathletics for an explanation of Adjusted +/- ratings) provide the lens through which we can diagnose and solve the Wizards’ problems.

·        Haywood with his +17 Adjusted +/- and -21 defense rating is probably the league’s most underrated player.  Haywood is the league’s #1 defender. We estimate that when Haywood is in the Wizards give up 21 points less than they would if he were replaced by an average defender.

·        Foye (-16 Adjusted +/-) ,McGuire (Adjusted +/- of -13) and Stevenson (Adjusted +/- of -10) have killed the Wizards.

·        The Wizards are horrible when Foye and Arenas play (16 points worse than average) When Arenas plays without Foye the Wizards are very good, 3 points better than average. When Foye plays with Haywood and without Arenas the Wizards play well, 8 points better than average.

·        When Haywood and Arenas are in without Foye the Wizards are great, 7 points better than average.

Reducing the time that Foye and Arenas play together will really help.  Keeping Haywood on the floor with Foye when Arenas is out would also help a lot. Here are the Wizards best lineups. The Wizards can compete with any team when these lineups are on the floor. For example the first listed lineup (1 A)played 14.87 points better than average per game in 140 minutes outsscoring opponents by 35 points (other numbers are not important).

WAS      14.87 (    7.40    5.58   -1.82   28.51    0.80    9.82)  140.28 minutes   53 appearances     1 A     11.98       35 $

Arenas        Butler        Haywood       Jamison       Young         29.20 years      16709_WAS_2009

 

WAS      11.68 (   -1.94    4.75    6.70  -13.02   -0.51   11.18)  109.95 minutes   45 appearances     2 A     11.35       26 $

Arenas        Butler        Haywood       Jamison       Stevenson     30.04 years       8517_WAS_2009v

WAS       7.06 (   20.09   22.94    2.85   52.44    2.01   10.67)   45.78 minutes   18 appearances     6 A      5.24        5 $

Arenas        Butler        Haywood       Jamison       Miller        30.26 years       2373_WAS_2009

 

WAS       2.15 (   19.15   13.51   -5.64   17.75    1.46   10.78)   30.33 minutes   11 appearances     7 A     -6.33       -4 $

Arenas        Blatche       Butler        Haywood       Miller        28.22 years       2119_WAS_2009

 

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      

WAS      52.78 (   -0.02   -4.44   -4.42   -9.53   -0.16   10.64)   27.24 minutes   22 appearances     1 B     52.86       30 $

Arenas        Blatche       Butler        Haywood       Boykins       28.96 years      32839_WAS_2009

 

WAS      27.36 (   22.27   10.70  -11.56   42.74    1.97   10.47)   25.78 minutes   11 appearances     2 B      5.59        3 $

Arenas        Butler        Haywood       Miller        Oberto        30.51 years       6213_WAS_2009

 

WAS       1.29 (  -17.42    4.55   21.98  -29.27   -1.32    5.22)   23.99 minutes   19 appearances     3 B      2.00        1 $

Arenas        Blatche       Butler        Jamison       Boykins       29.66 years     

WAS       8.09 (  -24.16  -18.68    5.47  -92.70   -2.80    8.18)   20.66 minutes   16 appearances     6 B     16.27        7 $

Blatche       Butler        Foye          Oberto        Stevenson     28.59 years      12326_WAS_2009

 

WAS      30.16 (    0.36    7.36    7.01    3.07    0.29   14.15)   20.25 minutes   13 appearances     7 B     23.70       10 $

Arenas        Blatche       Foye          Haywood       Miller        27.51 years      

WAS       7.25 (  -10.94    5.14   16.08  -25.92   -0.92    4.81)   18.93 minutes   14 appearances     9 B     10.14        4 $

Arenas        Blatche       Butler        Jamison       Young         27.86 years      16647_WAS_2009

 

WAS      27.30 (    6.60   -1.76   -8.36    8.89    0.39    9.81)   18.85 minutes    6 appearances    10 B     33.10       13 $

Arenas        Haywood       Jamison       Oberto        Young         30.20 years      20801_WAS_

6 Comments »

  1. Thanks for the informative analysis but data tables looks awful.

    Figuring out a way to improve the view would help! Maybe pasting your screen-captures rather than copy-pasting the values?

    Comment by Serhat — December 30, 2009 @ 4:33 pm

  2. Yeah, WordPress has to have a table function. Or at least, an option to add excel spreadsheets attached to a post. Or something.

    Also, you might want to try shrinking your font size. You don’t really need to do everything in 18-24 point font.

    Comment by KMils — December 30, 2009 @ 7:04 pm

  3. The Wizards are a mess and I won’t take much time to think about them. If they can trade Arenas and Jamison of course they should. Those extensions are millstones. But short of that they max out the playing time of Blatche, giving him as much run at backup center as he can handle in addition to his backup PF role. Of course Miller should play and shoot as much as you can get from him. As bad as they are they are only 2 games out of the 8th seed. Get into the playoffs maybe they get serious and play better.

    Comment by Crow — January 1, 2010 @ 1:17 pm

  4. I appreciate the larger font.

    Comment by Crow — January 1, 2010 @ 1:19 pm

  5. should be…

    they “should” max out Blatche

    Blatche isn’t great but he is better than McGee on offense and by the numbers better at center defense too.

    Comment by Crow — January 1, 2010 @ 1:25 pm

  6. I added explanation of table. Sorry for previously omitting the explanation.

    Comment by wwinston — January 2, 2010 @ 7:33 pm

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