December 24, 2009

Why the Knicks are having a Merry Christmas

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 12:23 pm

A month ago the Knicks were the laughing stock of the league. In December they have been one of the league’s best teams, playing 5 points better than average.  A playoff berth is a definite possibility. Why the turnaround? Many fans think the benching of Nate Robinson was the catalyst.  I do not think so. Since his benching Nate’s Adjusted +/- rating has stayed constant at around +3 points better than average per game. Usually when a player is not playing his rating moves as we learn more about other players. In this case I still think Nate is an a slightly better than average NBA player. If he was the problem. his rating would have dropped a lot.

   I believe the key to the Knick’s improvement has been primarily the improved play of Jarred Jeffries and to a lesser degree the improvment of Duhon and Lee. In 109  December minutes where Jeffries was in and Chandler was out the Knicks have played 24 points better than average. When Chandler is in and Jeffries is out the Knicks have stumbled around and played 5 points worse than average. Jeffries adjusted +/- rating for December is 15 points better than average.

  Amazingly in December Lee Jeffries and Duhon in together  have played 16 points better than average. When Lee and Duhon are in without Jeffries the Knicks have played at an average level.

For the season here are the Knicks best lineups. Note that 1B with Duhon Jeffries Lee Gallinari and Hughes playes an amazing 51 points better than average per 48 minutes.

By the way for the whole season Gallo, Hughes and Harrington in has played 17 points better than average.

 

NYK      15.64 (   -0.04    5.50    5.54    4.80    0.10    6.82)   51.70 minutes   37 appearances     6 A     17.64       19 $

Duhon         Gallinari     Harrington    Hughes        Lee           27.24 years       1208_NYK_2009

 

NYK       6.36 (  -10.15    0.10   10.25  -25.84   -1.08    4.74)   33.55 minutes   19 appearances     8 A      7.15        5 $

Chandler      Duhon         Harrington    Lee           Robinson      26.42 years       9257_NYK_2009

 

NYK      35.22 (    4.17    2.12   -2.05   22.70    0.70    7.77)   31.00 minutes   18 appearances     9 A     51.09       33 $

Duhon         Harrington    Hughes        Jeffries      Lee           28.58 years       1448_NYK_2009

 

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      

NYK      51.37 (    7.95    0.97   -6.98   16.44    0.79    7.99)   23.27 minutes   13 appearances     1 B     47.43       23 $

Duhon         Gallinari     Hughes        Jeffries      Lee           26.89 years       1432_NYK_2009

 

NYK      11.25 (  -26.94   -3.92   23.03  -55.22   -2.47    8.33)   21.12 minutes   10 appearances     2 B      4.55        2 $

Chandler      Douglas       Duhon         Gallinari     Lee           24.37 years       1053_NYK_2009

 

NYK      12.00 (    0.28    0.01   -0.26   11.26    0.41   10.57)   20.06 minutes   11 appearances     3 B     11.96        5 $

Chandler      Douglas       Harrington    Hughes        Jeffries      27.07 years        421_NYK_2009

 

NYK      54.83 (    5.75    1.93   -3.82   27.00    1.02   10.78)   17.59 minutes    9 appearances     4 B     57.32       21 $

Douglas       Gallinari     Harrington    Hughes        Jeffries      26.82 years        436_NYK_2009

 

 

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      

NYK      40.23 (    5.92    5.38   -0.54   11.36    0.58    5.85)   16.93 minutes   12 appearances     1 C     36.86       13 $

Chandler      Duhon         Gallinari     Harrington    Hughes        26.44 years        185_NYK_2009

 

NYK      49.32 (   34.41   12.74  -21.68  -11.36   -0.28   29.47)   16.00 minutes   10 appearances     2 C     45.00       15 $

Chandler      Douglas       Gallinari     Hill          Landry        22.89 years        597_NYK

 

Let’s not forget the amazing comeback of Jonathan Bender. He has played great in his first two games, and let’s hope he gets to fulfill the amazing promise he showed when he played for the Pacers. Stay healthy Jonathan!

4 Comments »

  1. The one thing that doesn’t make sense to me is that Chandler was shooting terribly in October and November, but his TS% is “above average” in December while everything else has more or less remained stable. It’s hard for me to believe that such a dramatic shift in his play isn’t also having some positive impact on the team’s results. I’m not saying he’s playing really well, but the shift was so large it had to account for something.

    The strange thing is that I recall looking at the Adjusted +/- provided by Basketball Value during the first few weeks when he was playing pathetically and he was one of the few Knicks with a positive Adj +/- during that period. Now he’s playing better and his +/- is barely positive.

    http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2009-2010&team=NYK

    I like these team combos and Adj +/- but I think sample sizes are are sometimes an issue. Boxscore stats and visual perception also have flaws, but they can’t be that wrong.

    It seems to me that Chandler, Duhon, and Jeffries are all playing much better in December than they were in the first few weeks.

    Comment by Italian Stallion — December 24, 2009 @ 11:56 pm

  2. Hey there, first of all, I would like to say it’s a wonderful site you have here. My question is, I haven’t understood the way to include your web site rss in my feed subscriber, where is the link for the rss feed? Many thanks

    Comment by Jackie Caci — July 22, 2010 @ 11:18 pm

  3. I need to work on RSS feed.

    Comment by wwinston — July 23, 2010 @ 11:03 pm

  4. [...] Why the Knicks are having a Merry Christmas « mathleticsA month ago the Knicks were the laughing stock of the league. … Many fans think the benching of Nate Robinson was the catalyst.  I do not think so. …    I believe the key to the Knick’s improvement has been primarily the improved play of Jarred Jeffries and to a lesser degree the improvment of Duhon and Lee. [...]

    Pingback by Jared winston | Youkraft — May 29, 2011 @ 1:30 pm

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