A month ago the Knicks were the laughing stock of the league. In December they have been one of the league’s best teams, playing 5 points better than average. A playoff berth is a definite possibility. Why the turnaround? Many fans think the benching of Nate Robinson was the catalyst. I do not think so. Since his benching Nate’s Adjusted +/- rating has stayed constant at around +3 points better than average per game. Usually when a player is not playing his rating moves as we learn more about other players. In this case I still think Nate is an a slightly better than average NBA player. If he was the problem. his rating would have dropped a lot.
I believe the key to the Knick’s improvement has been primarily the improved play of Jarred Jeffries and to a lesser degree the improvment of Duhon and Lee. In 109 December minutes where Jeffries was in and Chandler was out the Knicks have played 24 points better than average. When Chandler is in and Jeffries is out the Knicks have stumbled around and played 5 points worse than average. Jeffries adjusted +/- rating for December is 15 points better than average.
Amazingly in December Lee Jeffries and Duhon in together have played 16 points better than average. When Lee and Duhon are in without Jeffries the Knicks have played at an average level.
For the season here are the Knicks best lineups. Note that 1B with Duhon Jeffries Lee Gallinari and Hughes playes an amazing 51 points better than average per 48 minutes.
By the way for the whole season Gallo, Hughes and Harrington in has played 17 points better than average.
NYK 15.64 ( -0.04 5.50 5.54 4.80 0.10 6.82) 51.70 minutes 37 appearances 6 A 17.64 19 $
Duhon Gallinari Harrington Hughes Lee 27.24 years 1208_NYK_2009
NYK 6.36 ( -10.15 0.10 10.25 -25.84 -1.08 4.74) 33.55 minutes 19 appearances 8 A 7.15 5 $
Chandler Duhon Harrington Lee Robinson 26.42 years 9257_NYK_2009
NYK 35.22 ( 4.17 2.12 -2.05 22.70 0.70 7.77) 31.00 minutes 18 appearances 9 A 51.09 33 $
Duhon Harrington Hughes Jeffries Lee 28.58 years 1448_NYK_2009
ACTUAL THEORY OFF DEF IMPACT ZSCORE SIGMA PLAYING TIME SIMPLE �
NYK 51.37 ( 7.95 0.97 -6.98 16.44 0.79 7.99) 23.27 minutes 13 appearances 1 B 47.43 23 $
Duhon Gallinari Hughes Jeffries Lee 26.89 years 1432_NYK_2009
NYK 11.25 ( -26.94 -3.92 23.03 -55.22 -2.47 8.33) 21.12 minutes 10 appearances 2 B 4.55 2 $
Chandler Douglas Duhon Gallinari Lee 24.37 years 1053_NYK_2009
NYK 12.00 ( 0.28 0.01 -0.26 11.26 0.41 10.57) 20.06 minutes 11 appearances 3 B 11.96 5 $
Chandler Douglas Harrington Hughes Jeffries 27.07 years 421_NYK_2009
NYK 54.83 ( 5.75 1.93 -3.82 27.00 1.02 10.78) 17.59 minutes 9 appearances 4 B 57.32 21 $
Douglas Gallinari Harrington Hughes Jeffries 26.82 years 436_NYK_2009
ACTUAL THEORY OFF DEF IMPACT ZSCORE SIGMA PLAYING TIME SIMPLE �
NYK 40.23 ( 5.92 5.38 -0.54 11.36 0.58 5.85) 16.93 minutes 12 appearances 1 C 36.86 13 $
Chandler Duhon Gallinari Harrington Hughes 26.44 years 185_NYK_2009
NYK 49.32 ( 34.41 12.74 -21.68 -11.36 -0.28 29.47) 16.00 minutes 10 appearances 2 C 45.00 15 $
Chandler Douglas Gallinari Hill Landry 22.89 years 597_NYK
Let’s not forget the amazing comeback of Jonathan Bender. He has played great in his first two games, and let’s hope he gets to fulfill the amazing promise he showed when he played for the Pacers. Stay healthy Jonathan!
The one thing that doesn’t make sense to me is that Chandler was shooting terribly in October and November, but his TS% is “above average” in December while everything else has more or less remained stable. It’s hard for me to believe that such a dramatic shift in his play isn’t also having some positive impact on the team’s results. I’m not saying he’s playing really well, but the shift was so large it had to account for something.
The strange thing is that I recall looking at the Adjusted +/- provided by Basketball Value during the first few weeks when he was playing pathetically and he was one of the few Knicks with a positive Adj +/- during that period. Now he’s playing better and his +/- is barely positive.
http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2009-2010&team=NYK
I like these team combos and Adj +/- but I think sample sizes are are sometimes an issue. Boxscore stats and visual perception also have flaws, but they can’t be that wrong.
It seems to me that Chandler, Duhon, and Jeffries are all playing much better in December than they were in the first few weeks.
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Comment by wwinston — July 23, 2010 @ 11:03 pm
[...] Why the Knicks are having a Merry Christmas « mathleticsA month ago the Knicks were the laughing stock of the league. … Many fans think the benching of Nate Robinson was the catalyst. I do not think so. … I believe the key to the Knick’s improvement has been primarily the improved play of Jarred Jeffries and to a lesser degree the improvment of Duhon and Lee. [...]
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