December 24, 2009

What’s Wrong with the Bulls?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:08 am

The Bulls have disappointed their fans with their poor play (7 points worse per game than average). This culminated in Monday”s blowing of a 35 point lead against the Kings. In that game the lineup of  Deng, Miller, Rose, Salmons and Noah was up 17 points but was not seen at crunch time. Here’s when the Bulls have trouble. All numbers are per 48 minutes and are adjusted for strength of opponent.h

  • With Deng out the Bulls play 30 points worse than average.
  • With Salmons out the Bulls play 15 points worse than average.

This is where the loss of Ben Gordon has an impact: there is not enough scoring when Deng or Salmons is out. With Salmon out, Deng, Hinrich, Miller Pargo or Rose and Gibson has played well. With Deng out not much works. Deng is having a a great year (+20 point Adjusted +/-) but has received little credit in the media.

 Given Deng and Salmons are in, a key decision is what combo of Miller and Noah should be played. Here is some relevant data.

  • With Noah in and Miller out things are bad 474 min. Bulls play at -6.
  • With Miller in and Noah out 138 min Bulls play at +8.
  • With Miller and Noah in 207 min Mulls play at  +5.

It seems foolish to play Noah without Miller so often when this combo performs poorly.

Here are the Bulls’ best lineups. For example, Deng Gibson Hinrich Miller and Salmons has played 8 points better than average in 41 minutes.

 

CHI       8.10 (    7.70   -6.15  -13.85   20.97    0.81   12.78)   41.40 minutes   34 appearances     5 A     12.75       11 $

Deng          Gibson        Hinrich       Miller        Salmons       28.40 years       4374_CHI_2009

 

CHI       9.65 (   -1.44   -4.09   -2.65    9.73    0.14   14.96)   35.70 minutes   25 appearances     7 A     13.45       10 $

Deng          Hinrich       Miller        Noah          Salmons       28.46 years       4882_CHI_2009

 

CHI      16.61 (   -1.34  -12.75  -11.42   18.32    0.32   14.95)   34.66 minutes   24 appearances     8 A     13.85       10 $

Deng          Gibson        Hinrich       Noah          Salmons       26.62 years       4630_CHI_2009

 

 

CHI      16.06 (    2.63   -4.87   -7.50  -18.87   -0.25   12.94)   24.63 minutes   20 appearances     2 B     15.59        8 $

Deng          Gibson        Hinrich       Miller        Rose          26.64 years       2326_CHI_2009

 

 

CHI      36.54 (   11.70    0.46  -11.25   29.91    1.30   14.70)   19.43 minutes   11 appearances     5 B     32.12       13 $

Deng          Hunter        Noah          Rose          Salmons       27.99 years       6690_CHI_2009

1 Comment »

  1. Interesting numbers. I personally love the Noah + Miller together combo, it seems that they compliment each other perfectly since Miller can pass, hit the open shot, and play the high post while Noah bangs bodies down low and rebounds like a maniac.

    I’m wondering what the numbers show on Tyrus Thomas in his limited time so far this year. Gibson has been playing well and I think there are a lot of Bulls fans quietly hoping he will remain the starter, but Thomas appeared to have shown improvement at the start of the season and it seems like his ceiling is higher.

    Comment by HoopsFan — December 24, 2009 @ 7:05 pm

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