December 22, 2009

Updated NFL Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:08 am

Here are our latest projected NFL final regular season won lost records.

Team

W

L

Cardinals

10

6

Falcons

8

8

Ravens

10

6

Bills

6

10

Panthers

7

9

Bears

6

10

Bengals

10

6

Browns

4

12

Cowboys

10

6

Broncos

9

7

Lions

2

14

Packers

10

6

Texans

8

8

Colts

15

1

Jaguars

8

8

Chiefs

3

13

Dolphins

8

8

Vikings

13

3

Patriots

11

5

Saints

15

1

Giants

9

7

Jets

8

8

Raiders

6

10

Eagles

11

5

Steelers

7

9

Rams

1

15

Chargers

12

4

49ers

8

8

Seahawks

5

11

Buccaneers

2

14

Titans

8

8

Redskins

5

11

 

So it looks like the following teams should make the playoffs

NFC: Saints, Vikings, Eagles, and Cardinals win their divisions with Packers and Cowboys in as wild cards.

AFC: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, and Bengals win their divisions with the Ravens and fading Broncos as the wild cards.

            These simulations are based on the following team ratings. We use minimizing absolute errors instead of squared errors this week. This emphasizes a team’s typical performance more than “outliers.” We find, for example, the Colts are 14.29 points better than an average team. The Colts are 9.07 points per game better than average on offense and 5.21 points better than average on defense.  We measure offense and defense simply by points scored and points given up.  Note the Jets are a much better team than their record indicates.

 

offense

defense

total

rank off

rank def

 overall

Cardinals

1.08

-0.73

1.81

15

15

16

Falcons

1.58

2.79

-1.21

13

23

21

Ravens

6.03

-1.10

7.13

5

14

7

Bills

-3.35

-3.63

0.28

23

7

17

Panthers

-2.92

-2.71

-0.21

22

9

19

Bears

-8.92

-3.21

-5.71

29

8

25

Bengals

-4.75

-1.21

-3.53

24

11

22

Browns

-10.49

5.45

-15.94

31

30

32

Cowboys

1.08

-3.98

5.06

16

4

10

Broncos

-1.16

-3.71

2.55

20

6

14

Lions

-5.92

8.43

-14.34

25

32

30

Packers

4.58

0.65

3.93

9

19

11

Texans

4.58

1.78

2.80

8

21

13

Colts

9.07

-5.21

14.29

2

3

1

Jaguars

-2.92

-1.72

-1.20

21

10

20

Chiefs

-5.92

4.29

-10.21

28

28

28

Dolphins

4.23

-1.16

5.39

11

13

8

Vikings

8.23

-1.21

9.44

3

12

5

Patriots

5.46

-7.28

12.74

7

2

2

Saints

13.08

2.79

10.29

1

25

3

Giants

2.61

2.79

-0.18

12

24

18

Jets

1.15

-8.60

9.75

14

1

4

Raiders

-9.42

1.74

-11.16

30

20

29

Eagles

7.08

-0.21

7.29

4

16

6

Steelers

-0.42

3.29

-3.70

18

26

23

Rams

-11.42

4.36

-15.78

32

29

31

Chargers

4.43

2.23

2.20

10

22

15

49ers

-0.91

-3.96

3.05

19

5

12

Seahawks

0.63

5.79

-5.16

17

31

24

Buccaneers

-5.92

3.29

-9.21

26

27

27

Titans

5.46

0.21

5.25

6

18

9

Redskins

-5.92

-0.21

-5.71

27

17

26

 

Here are team schedule strengths (in points per game better or worse than average)

strength

rank

Cardinals

-0.70

18

Falcons

3.05

4

Ravens

-1.98

25

Bills

2.67

6

Panthers

2.54

7

Bears

-1.65

24

Bengals

-2.52

28

Browns

-0.86

19

Cowboys

-1.21

20

Broncos

-1.28

21

Lions

-0.68

17

Packers

-3.87

31

Texans

1.14

11

Colts

1.82

10

Jaguars

2.42

8

Chiefs

-1.60

23

Dolphins

4.70

1

Vikings

-4.21

32

Patriots

4.27

2

Saints

-0.52

16

Giants

-0.12

15

Jets

2.30

9

Raiders

0.06

14

Eagles

-2.06

26

Steelers

-3.56

30

Rams

0.97

12

Chargers

-2.58

29

49ers

0.89

13

Seahawks

-1.48

22

Buccaneers

3.00

5

Titans

3.24

3

Redskins

-2.14

27

 

Note the Dolphins have played the toughest schedule (4.7 points per game tougher than average.)

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