December 10, 2009

Kevin Durant: What a Difference a Year Makes

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:03 pm

In previous posts we have pointed out how Kevin Durant, despite impressive box score numbers, actually hurt the performance of the Thunder during the 2008-2009 season. The good news is that this season KD has been fantastic. His Adjusted +/- of 25.3 points ranks second only to Dirk Nowitzki. By our best estimate KD is 13.8 points better per game than an average offensive player and most amazingly 11.5 points better than an average defensive player.

Below we see how the 2008-2009 Thunder played with Durant In or out paired with various players. For example, with KD and Westbrook in  the Thunder were 6.1 points worse than average. For all minutes with KD  out and Westbrook in the Thunder were only 1.1 points worse than average, a 5 point improvement. Looking at these numbers it is hard to make a case that KD helped his team last year.  I made this assertion earlier this fall and I totally stand by it. His Adjusted +/- of -7.8 points last year was one of the league’s worst.

2008-2009 KD

   
     

With

Durant in

Durant out

Durant

-8.5

dnp

Westbrook

-6.1

-1.1

Green

-8.0

1.1

Krstic

-9.1

5.7

Collison

-8.6

-2.0

watson

-10.7

-6.0

Sefolosha

-11.6

9.3

Rose

-5.2

-5.1

Atkins

-13.1

-16.9

Weaver

-7.1

0.0

Petro

-11.9

-10.7

Livingston

-25.6

-2.8

     

KD: New and Improved

                The table below documents the great strides KD has made in helping his team win.

You can see that in every comparison shown KD improves the Thunder’s performance by at least 10 points per game. This is the sign of a great player. Overall when KD is out the Thunder play a horrible 15.7 points worse than average.

2009-2010 KD

   
 

Durant in

Durant out

Durant

5.3

dnp

Green

4.3

-19.5

Krstic

5.3

-56.1

Sefolosha

3.0

-28.3

Westbrook

6.1

-6.0

Wilks

-22.8

-45.4

Collison

12.7

-17.3

Harden

13.4

-15.3

Livingston

35.8

-40.9

Thomas

0.1

-18.1

Ollie

5.8

-16.5

White

29.9

-3.7

 

   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

5 Comments »

  1. [...] The Handlebar: Much was made over the off season about Kevin Durant’s abysmal adjusted plus/minus numbers.  However, according to Wayne Winston, this season the numbers have been much better. [Mathletics] [...]

    Pingback by The Mid-Afternoon Milk Mustache, featuring Yao’s words of wisdom | Stacheketball, an NBA Blog — December 11, 2009 @ 6:42 pm

  2. [...] third in the NBA in scoring, and one of the premier young players in the league. He quotes Wayne Winston’s findings on Kevin Durant’s effectiveness on his team’s +/- statistics (he uses “adjusted [...]

    Pingback by My Two Cents on the +/- Rating in Basketball « John Cebelak — December 11, 2009 @ 7:07 pm

  3. Font so small had to blow it up about 5 levels to read comfortably.

    Comment by Hardtoread — December 11, 2009 @ 9:15 pm

  4. [...] third in the NBA in scoring, and one of the premier young players in the league. He quotes Wayne Winston’s findings on Kevin Durant’s effectiveness on his team’s +/- statistics (he uses “adjusted [...]

    Pingback by My Two Cents on the +/- Rating in Basketball « Ramblings on Sports — June 30, 2010 @ 1:58 pm

  5. The KINGS BACK! ym salute!

    Comment by Rosalyn Brawn — November 8, 2010 @ 11:02 pm

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