Below we list NBA Adjusted +/- Ratings for players based on their last 5 games. Top 20 and bottom 18 players are listed for players who have averaged 25 minutes or more during their last 5 games. For example, our best estimate (after adjusting for who he played with and against) is that in his last 5 games Marc Gasol has played 33 points better per 48 minutes than an average player. You can see how the trio of Nash, Richardson, and Frye have sparked the Suns while Stephen Jackson has sparked Charlotte’s recent surge.
Note that “stars” like Battier, David Lee, Brandon Roy, J.R. Smith and Chauncey Billups have been struggling lately.
POINTS MINUTES SIGMA
1 MEM Marc Gasol 32.76 177.15 ( 13.57) 1
2 CLE LeBron James 29.45 189.59 ( 9.15) 2
3 DAL Dirk Nowitzki 28.51 187.55 ( 16.69) 3
4 NOH Marcus Thornton 25.90 125.87 ( 17.81) 4
5 OKC Kevin Durant 25.80 172.95 ( 16.58) 5
6 LAL Kobe Bryant 24.49 182.28 ( 11.81) 6
7 CHI Luol Deng 24.09 189.63 ( 9.54) 7
8 CHA Raja Bell 21.57 157.45 ( 16.20) 8
9 WAS Brendan Haywood 20.63 149.80 ( 15.62) 9
10 GSW Stephen Curry 19.65 185.98 ( 19.03) 10
POINTS MINUTES SIGMA
11 ATL Mike Bibby 18.88 142.14 ( 12.64) 11
12 GSW Stephen Jackson 18.64 169.31 ( 21.76) 12
13 PHO Channing Frye 18.41 135.35 ( 14.48) 13
14 PHO Steve Nash 18.36 156.72 ( 17.86) 14
15 MIA Dwyane Wade 18.10 192.70 ( 11.67) 15
16 PHO Jason Richardson 17.22 145.16 ( 15.56) 16
17 DEN Nene 16.92 165.14 ( 15.19) 17
18 DAL Shawn Marion 16.42 141.57 ( 24.13) 18
19 CHI John Salmons 15.61 167.90 ( 15.67) 19
20 CHA Stephen Jackson 13.80 189.97 ( 10.20) 20
POINTS MINUTES SIGMA
151 HOU Shane Battier -12.29 155.40 ( 19.92) 151
152 NOH Peja Stojakovic -12.44 160.38 ( 16.58) 152
153 MIN Jonny Flynn -13.03 153.44 ( 10.80) 153
154 ORL Mickael Pietrus -13.66 138.63 ( 15.30) 154
155 DEN Chauncey Billups -14.57 152.80 ( 13.34) 155
156 GSW Anthony Randolph -14.77 126.62 ( 18.73) 156
157 MIL Michael Redd -14.92 125.51 ( 22.46) 157
158 DEN J.R. Smith -14.97 133.35 ( 12.84) 158
159 NYK David Lee -16.10 164.28 ( 20.35) 159
160 DET Will Bynum -16.11 145.00 ( 12.85) 160
POINTS MINUTES SIGMA
161 POR Brandon Roy -16.50 181.63 ( 11.43) 161
162 SAC Andres Nocioni -17.08 139.90 ( 21.03) 162
163 IND Troy Murphy -18.14 141.68 ( 14.02) 163
164 ATL Marvin Williams -19.11 167.79 ( 13.39) 164
165 MIN Al Jefferson -19.60 178.24 ( 13.37) 165
166 MIA Jermaine O'Neal -19.71 168.40 ( 15.23) 166
167 WAS Gilbert Arenas -22.60 168.79 ( 15.21) 167
168 DAL Drew Gooden -26.52 125.91 ( 18.60) 168
It seems +/- rankings have a distinct trend toward favoring players from good teams and penalizing those from worse teams. There may be some merit to this tendency, but what about the lonely star laboring in obscurity while surrounded by a lackluster supporting cast. Won’t that decrease his +/-. From your list, Shawn Marion comes off looking pretty good while David Lee is the pits - but I don’t think that’s reality. The Matrix hasn’t played particularly well but has benefitted from an overachieving team. Meanwhile Lee is working his rear off for the weak Knicks. Is there a statistical adjustment for W’s and L’s (and strength of schedule, while you’re at it) that gives a more accurate picture of the individual.
Comment by sandman — November 30, 2009 @ 5:27 pm
I look at and give some weight to 10 game statistical subsets. I find myself having caution about 5 game Adjusted sub-sets but would have to look at them in detail over time before I’d know how much weight to give them. I might feel better about 10 game samples but then there is more going on and more to sort thru and it moves away from being just right now. In general more snapshots is better- for thinking about things. I guess it could give a shift indicator for players who are more in the groove with teammates or have fallen out and then you could ask why and exploit or fix specifics and adjust playing time.
Comment by Crow — November 30, 2009 @ 5:46 pm
We adjust for who you play with and against, so there is no bias against or in favor of guys on good team.s Of course, teams are good if they have more good players! Pure + - has the flaw you mention, COaches seem to like 5 games morethan 3 or 8 or 10 games. Like we saw (last in league last 5 games) Jermaine O’Neal was playing poorly and I find out his uncle is gravely ill which explains his poor play.
Comment by wwinston — November 30, 2009 @ 8:17 pm
Is David Lee’s weakness all on the defensive end?
How does his current defense compare to when he used to play PF and covered players approximately his own size. He’s clearly out of position on a lot of nights.
Comment by Italian Stallion — December 2, 2009 @ 1:51 pm
His defense is poor: +14 . Means he gives up 14 points more per game than average NBA player
Comment by wwinston — December 2, 2009 @ 1:54 pm
To follow up on Lee, would his numbers look better if he were playing power forward next to a legitimate defensive center? How much of that -14 is due to the fact he is a 6-8 trying to play the 5 for D-Antoni.
Lee isn’t great on defense, but he seemed like an average pf defensively in the years he actually played pf.
Comment by Metsox — December 2, 2009 @ 5:27 pm