November 29, 2009

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not in the NBA

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 12:13 pm

Below we list NBA Adjusted +/- Ratings for players based on their last 5 games. Top 20 and bottom 18 players are listed for players who have averaged 25 minutes or more during their last 5 games. For example, our best estimate (after adjusting for who he played with and against) is that in his last 5 games Marc Gasol has played 33 points better per 48 minutes than an average player.  You can see how the trio of Nash, Richardson, and Frye have sparked the Suns while Stephen Jackson has sparked Charlotte’s recent surge.  

      Note that “stars” like Battier, David Lee, Brandon Roy, J.R. Smith and Chauncey Billups have been struggling lately.

 

                                      POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

    1  MEM Marc Gasol                   32.76    177.15   ( 13.57)     1

    2  CLE LeBron James                 29.45    189.59   (  9.15)     2

    3  DAL Dirk Nowitzki                28.51    187.55   ( 16.69)     3

    4  NOH Marcus Thornton              25.90    125.87   ( 17.81)     4

    5  OKC Kevin Durant                 25.80    172.95   ( 16.58)     5

    6  LAL Kobe Bryant                  24.49    182.28   ( 11.81)     6

    7  CHI Luol Deng                    24.09    189.63   (  9.54)     7

    8  CHA Raja Bell                    21.57    157.45   ( 16.20)     8

    9  WAS Brendan Haywood              20.63    149.80   ( 15.62)     9

   10  GSW Stephen Curry                19.65    185.98   ( 19.03)    10

 

                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA

 

   11  ATL Mike Bibby                   18.88    142.14   ( 12.64)    11

   12  GSW Stephen Jackson              18.64    169.31   ( 21.76)    12

   13  PHO Channing Frye                18.41    135.35   ( 14.48)    13

   14  PHO Steve Nash                   18.36    156.72   ( 17.86)    14

   15  MIA Dwyane Wade                  18.10    192.70   ( 11.67)    15

   16  PHO Jason Richardson             17.22    145.16   ( 15.56)    16

   17  DEN Nene                         16.92    165.14   ( 15.19)    17

   18  DAL Shawn Marion                 16.42    141.57   ( 24.13)    18

   19  CHI John Salmons                 15.61    167.90   ( 15.67)    19

   20  CHA Stephen Jackson              13.80    189.97   ( 10.20)    20

 

                                     POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA
 
  151  HOU Shane Battier               -12.29    155.40   ( 19.92)   151
  152  NOH Peja Stojakovic             -12.44    160.38   ( 16.58)   152
  153  MIN Jonny Flynn                 -13.03    153.44   ( 10.80)   153
  154  ORL Mickael Pietrus             -13.66    138.63   ( 15.30)   154
  155  DEN Chauncey Billups            -14.57    152.80   ( 13.34)   155
  156  GSW Anthony Randolph            -14.77    126.62   ( 18.73)   156
  157  MIL Michael Redd                -14.92    125.51   ( 22.46)   157
  158  DEN J.R. Smith                  -14.97    133.35   ( 12.84)   158
  159  NYK David Lee                   -16.10    164.28   ( 20.35)   159
  160  DET Will Bynum                  -16.11    145.00   ( 12.85)   160
 
                                       POINTS   MINUTES     SIGMA
 
  161  POR Brandon Roy                 -16.50    181.63   ( 11.43)   161
  162  SAC Andres Nocioni              -17.08    139.90   ( 21.03)   162
  163  IND Troy Murphy                 -18.14    141.68   ( 14.02)   163
  164  ATL Marvin Williams             -19.11    167.79   ( 13.39)   164
  165  MIN Al Jefferson                -19.60    178.24   ( 13.37)   165
  166  MIA Jermaine O'Neal             -19.71    168.40   ( 15.23)   166
  167  WAS Gilbert Arenas              -22.60    168.79   ( 15.21)   167
  168  DAL Drew Gooden                 -26.52    125.91   ( 18.60)   168
 

 

6 Comments »

  1. It seems +/- rankings have a distinct trend toward favoring players from good teams and penalizing those from worse teams. There may be some merit to this tendency, but what about the lonely star laboring in obscurity while surrounded by a lackluster supporting cast. Won’t that decrease his +/-. From your list, Shawn Marion comes off looking pretty good while David Lee is the pits – but I don’t think that’s reality. The Matrix hasn’t played particularly well but has benefitted from an overachieving team. Meanwhile Lee is working his rear off for the weak Knicks. Is there a statistical adjustment for W’s and L’s (and strength of schedule, while you’re at it) that gives a more accurate picture of the individual.

    Comment by sandman — November 30, 2009 @ 5:27 pm

  2. I look at and give some weight to 10 game statistical subsets. I find myself having caution about 5 game Adjusted sub-sets but would have to look at them in detail over time before I’d know how much weight to give them. I might feel better about 10 game samples but then there is more going on and more to sort thru and it moves away from being just right now. In general more snapshots is better- for thinking about things. I guess it could give a shift indicator for players who are more in the groove with teammates or have fallen out and then you could ask why and exploit or fix specifics and adjust playing time.

    Comment by Crow — November 30, 2009 @ 5:46 pm

  3. We adjust for who you play with and against, so there is no bias against or in favor of guys on good team.s Of course, teams are good if they have more good players! Pure + – has the flaw you mention, COaches seem to like 5 games morethan 3 or 8 or 10 games. Like we saw (last in league last 5 games) Jermaine O’Neal was playing poorly and I find out his uncle is gravely ill which explains his poor play.

    Comment by wwinston — November 30, 2009 @ 8:17 pm

  4. Is David Lee’s weakness all on the defensive end?

    How does his current defense compare to when he used to play PF and covered players approximately his own size. He’s clearly out of position on a lot of nights.

    Comment by Italian Stallion — December 2, 2009 @ 1:51 pm

  5. His defense is poor: +14 . Means he gives up 14 points more per game than average NBA player

    Comment by wwinston — December 2, 2009 @ 1:54 pm

  6. To follow up on Lee, would his numbers look better if he were playing power forward next to a legitimate defensive center? How much of that -14 is due to the fact he is a 6-8 trying to play the 5 for D-Antoni.

    Lee isn’t great on defense, but he seemed like an average pf defensively in the years he actually played pf.

    Comment by Metsox — December 2, 2009 @ 5:27 pm

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