November 25, 2009

NFL Predictions November 26

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:18 am

Including games of November23, here are NFL rankings. These rankings are simply based on minimizing the sum of squares errors of predicting all games, with each game given equal weight. We see the Patriots and Saints (who play next week) are virtually tied for #1 ranking. Ratings are points are above average (minus is good for defense).

Team

offense

defense

total

Cardinals

2.73

-0.86

3.58

Falcons

4.56

-0.62

5.18

Ravens

3.01

-4.94

7.95

Bills

-6.93

-0.09

-6.84

Panthers

-2.09

0.78

-2.87

Bears

-1.54

0.96

-2.51

Bengals

1.03

-3.66

4.69

Browns

-9.06

4.34

-13.39

Cowboys

0.75

-3.34

4.10

Broncos

-2.97

-3.08

0.11

Lions

-4.16

8.56

-12.71

Packers

2.93

0.28

2.65

Texans

1.94

0.25

1.69

Colts

5.08

-6.41

11.48

Jaguars

-2.50

3.10

-5.61

Chiefs

-3.96

3.61

-7.57

Dolphins

4.11

0.32

3.79

Vikings

7.08

-0.11

7.19

Patriots

8.60

-5.41

14.01

Saints

13.78

-0.18

13.96

Giants

4.72

1.42

3.30

Jets

-0.21

-4.95

4.74

Raiders

-10.72

0.59

-11.31

Eagles

4.19

-0.64

4.83

Steelers

0.21

-2.69

2.90

Rams

-10.56

4.09

-14.65

Chargers

6.03

0.35

5.68

49ers

-1.30

-1.73

0.43

Seahawks

-2.40

1.81

-4.21

Buccaneers

-4.46

5.73

-10.20

Titans

0.83

4.97

-4.14

Redskins

-8.71

-2.46

-6.25

 

 

Here is each team’s projected final record. We used the Palisades Excel-add in @RISK to play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Based on our simulation  we predict the following teams to make the playoffs

NFC: Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, Saints, Cardinals, with Giants, Packers or Falcons sneaking in for last wild card spot.

AFC: Colts, Patriots, Bengals, Chargers, Ravens, with Steelers, Broncos or Dolphins sneaking in for last wild card spot.

Team

W

L

Cardinals

11

5

Falcons

9

7

Ravens

10

6

Bills

4

12

Panthers

6

10

Bears

7

9

Bengals

11

5

Browns

3

13

Cowboys

10

6

Broncos

9

7

Lions

3

13

Packers

9

7

Texans

8

8

Colts

15

1

Jaguars

8

8

Chiefs

5

11

Dolphins

9

7

Vikings

13

3

Patriots

12

4

Saints

15

1

Giants

9

7

Jets

8

8

Raiders

4

12

Eagles

10

6

Steelers

9

7

Rams

2

14

Chargers

11

5

49ers

8

8

Seahawks

6

10

Buccaneers

2

14

Titans

6

10

Redskins

5

11

 

 

 

 

4 Comments »

  1. I have made this spreadsheet model as well – any tips/tricks for getting the scores from the games in easily? I have very similar numbers as you but not exactly the same – probably a data entry issue.

    Comment by Craig — November 26, 2009 @ 4:47 pm

  2. Pro football reference.com has scores. difference may be how you do home edge. pats buc game was neutral site. You can use web query to take data in from that site and right click to refresh.

    Comment by wwinston — November 26, 2009 @ 8:37 pm

  3. yes, I see they have the score there, but where I’m looking they have all the winners on the left side instead of the home team. I guess I would have to keep track of which team was home in a different way if I import those scores.

    Comment by Craig — November 27, 2009 @ 3:46 pm

  4. Use an IF and you can reverse the columns when home team loses.

    Comment by wwinston — November 27, 2009 @ 5:50 pm

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