Bill Belichick is one of my least favorite people in sports. I love the Colts and do not like the Patriots. The announcers were unanimous in saying the Patriots were crazy to go for it on 4th down in the Colts-Patriots game. I hate to say it, but I think Belichick’s move might have made sense. Looking back at the last two years passing plays on 4th down and 2 or less yards to go have gained at least 2 yards around 45% of the time. With Brady this chance is probably higher than 45%. Let SHORT= chance Colts score TD from the Pats 30 and LONG = chance Colts score TD after a punt. Assume that if Patriots get a first down Colts cannot win. Then Patriots should go for it if .45 + .55*(1-SHORT)> (1-LONG). The following table computes Pats chance of winning if they go for it minus Pats chance of winning if they punt based on different values of SHORT and LONG. A positive number means Patriots should have gone for it. Note that if Colts have a t least a 50% chance of scoring a TD after the punt, then Bill made the right move. With Peyton Manning at the helm I would say the Colts had at least a 50% chance of scoring a TD from say 70 yards.
|
long drive |
|||||||
|
-0.03 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
|
|
0.4 |
-0.02 |
0.08 |
0.18 |
0.28 |
0.38 |
0.48 |
|
|
from 30 |
0.5 |
-0.075 |
0.025 |
0.125 |
0.225 |
0.325 |
0.425 |
|
0.6 |
-0.13 |
-0.03 |
0.07 |
0.17 |
0.27 |
0.37 |
|
|
0.7 |
-0.185 |
-0.085 |
0.015 |
0.115 |
0.215 |
0.315 |
|
|
0.8 |
-0.24 |
-0.14 |
-0.04 |
0.06 |
0.16 |
0.26 |
|
|
0.9 |
-0.295 |
-0.195 |
-0.095 |
0.005 |
0.105 |
0.205 |
|
Hmm… This makes me rethink my initial overwhelming reaction that Belichick’s move completely idiotic…
Comment by Jay Hutchinson — November 16, 2009 @ 1:46 am
“50% chance of scoring a TD after the punt.”
Seems way way too high.
They’ve scored 31 TDs out of 86 drives (not sure if # of drives is 100% accurate. Backed into it with TD, punt, interception/fumble information, so I’m leaving out turnover on downs.)
That’s 36% of drives ending with a TD this year. That would need to be regressed heavily to league mean (which I’m guessing is lower than 36%). Also, the 36% includes TDs that were scored on short fields, so a 70 yard drive would likely be even lower than 36%.
I think this changes your analysis considerably.
Comment by Boomer — November 16, 2009 @ 10:57 am
@Boomer-
You have to factor in how many of those drives were only able to use three downs at a time. Peyton’s final drive from 70 yards out would have been entirely in four-down territory.
Also factored into Belichick’s thinking was probably Peyton’s last drive (79 yards in six plays), as well as the stamina of his defense after said drive.
50% seems low, honestly.
Comment by Matt — November 16, 2009 @ 12:24 pm
[...] it’s been handled quite convincingly. Bill Barnwell shows here, (as well as Brian Burke here, and Wayne Winston here) that Belichick likely gave his team a better chance to win the game by going for it on 4th and 2. [...]
Pingback by Belichick’s Decision: Flip a Coin, or Trust your Team? « Harvard Sports Analysis Collective — November 17, 2009 @ 12:26 am
Let’s examine this debate. On one side, we have Belichick , one of the best coaches in football. On the other side, we have a bunch of sportswriters, announcers, and bloggers. Hmmm, who’s opinion do I trust here?
Comment by jt — November 17, 2009 @ 5:04 am
[...] it’s been handled quite convincingly. Bill Barnwell shows here (as well as Brian Burke here, and Wayne Winston here) that Belichick likely gave his team a better chance to win the game by going for it on 4th and 2. [...]
Pingback by David Roher: Belichick’s Decision: Flip a Coin, or Trust the Team? | News from: The Huffington Post - Breaking News and Opinion — November 17, 2009 @ 1:45 pm
Would one go for it at 4th and 2 from one owns two yard line? The answer is probably not. Having said that
1. I wonder if your statistics take into account the position on the field when the team is in a 4th and 2 situation.
2. With regards to going on it on 4th and 2, does that take into account if the game was tied/team was losing etc.
Would appreciate your feedback.
Comment by Pradeep — November 23, 2009 @ 3:10 pm
Romer says to go for it in own territory. I do not. see Mathletics book. The Belichick analysis is clean and easy because we are near end of game.
Comment by wwinston — November 23, 2009 @ 7:42 pm