November 11, 2009

NFL Forecasts Nov 11

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:01 am

Based on results through NFL week 9 here are the offense, defense and overall point ratings that best fit the scores of the games. For example, the Colts are 10.98 points better than average (3rd in league). They are 3.2 points better than average on offense and 7.78 points better than average on defense (- is good on defense). Using these ratings and the Excel simulation add-in @RISK I simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times and came up with each team’s most likely final record (see below)

Team

offense

defense

total

rank off

rank def

 overall

Cardinals

2.803898

-1.48435

4.28825

14

12

13

Falcons

3.82713

-4.09256

7.91969

8

7

6

Ravens

5.225194

-2.96683

8.19202

6

8

5

Bills

-6.1474

-2.9539

-3.1935

26

9

22

Panthers

-2.49445

1.048206

-3.5427

23

20

23

Bears

0.870441

3.206275

-2.3358

16

27

20

Bengals

1.610784

-5.48032

7.09111

15

4

8

Browns

-10.2463

3.177599

-13.424

29

26

30

Cowboys

5.379931

-2.08651

7.46645

5

10

7

Broncos

-1.67975

-6.68441

5.00466

21

3

11

Lions

-6.67358

7.704749

-14.378

28

32

31

Packers

0.722068

1.894151

-1.1721

18

21

19

Texans

3.667699

0.320498

3.3472

9

17

15

Colts

3.20576

-7.78372

10.9895

11

2

3

Jaguars

-4.25999

3.7082

-7.9682

24

28

25

Chiefs

-6.40864

3.090656

-9.4993

27

25

26

Dolphins

6.533296

0.032953

6.50034

4

15

9

Vikings

6.977749

2.764014

4.21374

3

24

14

Patriots

7.733759

-4.33249

12.0662

2

5

2

Saints

16.90733

-0.31946

17.2268

1

14

1

Giants

3.040208

0.735617

2.30459

12

19

16

Jets

0.036636

-8.4639

8.50053

19

1

4

Raiders

-11.1264

2.087535

-13.214

31

22

29

Eagles

4.137723

-1.50771

5.64543

7

11

10

Steelers

0.762061

-4.10476

4.86682

17

6

12

Rams

-13.1632

7.371257

-20.534

32

31

32

Chargers

3.369355

2.376662

0.99269

10

23

17

49ers

-0.69861

-1.08818

0.38957

20

13

18

Seahawks

-2.22322

0.654922

-2.8781

22

18

21

Buccaneers

-4.27382

5.948807

-10.223

25

29

27

Titans

2.842522

7.071809

-4.2293

13

30

24

Redskins

-10.2583

0.155206

-10.413

30

16

28

 

 

 

Projected Final Regular Season Record

1.       Saints 15-1

2.       Colts 14-2

3.       Vikings 12-4

4.       Bengals 12-4

5.       Cowboys 12-4

6.       Broncos 11-5

7.       Patriots 11-5

8.       Cardinals 11-5

9.       Steelers 11-5

10.   Falcons 10-6

11.   Ravens 10-6

12.   Eagles 10-6

13.   Chargers 9-07

14.   Jets 9-7

15.   Texans 9-7

16.   Giants 9-7

17.   Dolphins 9-7

18.   49ers 8-8

19.   Bears 8-8

20.   Packers 8-8

21.   Seahawks 7-9

22.   Jaguars 6-10

23.   Bills 6-10

24.   Panthers 5-11

25.   Titans 5-11

26.   Raiders 4-12

27.   Redskins 3-13

28.   Chiefs 3-13

29.   Browns 3-13

30.   Lions 2-14

31.   Rams 2-14

32.   Buccaneers 2-14

Packers have played easiest schedule so far and Dolphins the hardest.

3 Comments »

  1. A little bit of a breakdown for the biggest risers and fallers from the previous NFL Forecast on 10/27.

    Biggest Risers(Up 2 Wins (+.125 win %):

    -Cowboys (12-4 from 10-6)
    A couple of big wins in the last 3 weeks. Specifically against Atlanta and Philadelphia

    -Philadelphia (10-6 from 8-8)
    One Blowout win against the Giants and A close loss to the Cowboys

    -Carolina (5-11 from 3-13)
    Big win over Cardinals and 10pt loss to the Saints

    -Titans (5-11 from 3-13)
    2 wins in a row for an 0-6 team will raise statistical forecast significantly

    Biggest Fallers:
    (Down 3 wins (-.1875 win %))
    -Broncos (11-5 from 14-2)
    2 losses in a row for a 6-0 team will obviously drop expectations

    (Down 2 wins (-.1250 win %))
    -Packers (8-8 from 10-6)
    2 losses: one to a good team (the Vikes), one to a really bad team (Bucs)

    Also Wayne, you were missing the Texans and the Chiefs in you previous NFL Forecast post.

    Comment by Nick Wills — November 11, 2009 @ 1:08 pm

  2. According to the @risk simulation, who will win the Colts-Patriots game on Sunday night? Or does it not go game by game like that?

    Comment by Joe Gudema — November 11, 2009 @ 3:57 pm

  3. basically 50-50. each wins half the time. home edge is 3 points.

    Comment by wwinston — November 11, 2009 @ 4:00 pm

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