July 20, 2015

Thoughts on Ty Lawson

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:55 am

Hopefully Ty Lawson’s rehab will be successful. The last 2 seasons Ty has been amazing. His Adjusted + – Offense rating is +12 ppg, meaning that when he is  in Lawson causes Denver to score 12 ppg more than an average NBA team. This number marks Lawson as a Top 10 NBA offensive player. Paired with James Harden (another Top 10 offensive player) this trade should enable the Rockets to compete with the Spurs and  Warriors for the NBA West title. Ty is a weak defender (+5 defense rating.) This means that when Ty is in the game Denver (all other things being equal) gives up 5 more ppg than they would if an average defender replaced Ty. Of course, during the last 2 years Ty did not have a good rim protector. Now he has DH12, so his defensive liabilities might be mitigated. You can see below how Lawson impacted the Nuggets during the 2014-2015 season. For example, when Lawson was in with Chandler, Nuggets were an average NBA team while when Chandler was in and Lawson was out Nuggets played 13 ppg worse than average. The Mavs should have gone for Lawson instead of D Williams.

 

1 2 4 5 7 11 12 13
Chandler Gallinari Lawson Nurkic Hickson Foye Faried Afflalo
Lawson and  other in 0 1940m 2 928m 0 2665m 7 689m -7 776m 4 585m 3 1657m 2 1516m
Lawson out and other in -13 532m -10 497m dnp -14 414m -15 635m -20 501m -11 429m -18 234m
Lawson in and other out 0 726m 0 1737m dnp -2 1976m 3 1889m -1 2080m -3 1008m -1 1150m
Lawson out and other out -15 779m -17 813m -14 1311m -15 897m -14 676m -11 810m -16 882m -14 1076m

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