October 16, 2009

Some Tidbits from the Adjusted +/- World

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 2:10 pm
  • Here is Carmelo Anthony’s Adjusted +/-  listed in chronological order: -6, 3 1, -2, -2, 7. So Carmelo finally got it last year, Most of this improvement was at the defensive end.
  • Here is Troy Murphy’s: -2, -3, -8, -7, -8, -4, -10, -1, +1. So in Troy’s two years with the Pacers he iproved a great deal.
  • Here is the Adjusted +/- sequence for the most underrated player of the decade: Brad Miller (as an IU professor it kills me to say this) +9 , +8, +4, +6, +8, +4. Amazing consistency and quality play!
  • Another underrated player: Darius Songaila. Here is his sequence +8, +8, +2,+1, +5,+2. Of course, he plays limited minutes, but he always seems to help his team.
  • Another player who eventually  ”got it”: Danny Granger. -6, – 3 ,-3 +6!
  • Another underrated player Pachulia: +2, 0, +1, 0 and -1.


  1. I’m sure Nene breaking out and playing 77 games (16 the previous year) and Chauncey Billups coming over for AI had alot to do with Carmelo’s “improvement” in +/-

    Comment by Ray — October 16, 2009 @ 3:12 pm

  2. No, because adjusted +/- adjusts forwho you play with and against

    Comment by wayne winston — October 16, 2009 @ 8:39 pm

  3. No because adjusted +/- accounts for who you play with and against.

    Comment by wayne winston — October 16, 2009 @ 8:39 pm

  4. What do Anthony and Granger have in common with respect to their team environments and changes in those environments? You could say interiors of strong rebounder/defenders and perimeters with an increasing focus on the 3 pointer (including from the PF spot) and pretty take charge PGs.

    You could say the Mavericks were and are trending this way too.

    The Thunder and Durant? Krstic and Green are light on rebounding and nothing special on D.
    Harden has arrived but I doubt that raises the 3 point attack up to even average.

    Maybe in an environment more similar to Denver, Indiana and Dallas Durant could do better, on Adjusted +/- and in the win column.

    Comment by Crow — October 17, 2009 @ 1:51 am

  5. Westbrook’s leadership, 3 point shot, inside finishing (with the 2 step rule) and rebounding strength compensating for the big’s weakness on that will be a really major set of factors affecting the environment and determining the rate of improvement in that environment for Durant.

    Comment by Crow — October 17, 2009 @ 1:55 am

  6. As A Wiz fan, it’s nice to see Songaila getting some due. I always got excited when he checked in because he grabbed boards, got off quality shots, and made some smart passes. He and his black socks will be missed.

    Comment by Clay — October 19, 2009 @ 2:42 pm

  7. One thing it doesn’t account for is fit. Murphy is absolutely perfect for Jim O’Brien’s offense in Indiana. He’s not nearly of the same value to most other teams.

    Comment by Lu Galasso — October 19, 2009 @ 3:43 pm

  8. How exactly is adjusted +/- calculated? I find it remarkable that you can come to such conclusions about offense and defense with one stat.

    Comment by Anish — October 21, 2009 @ 12:16 am

  9. See my book Mathletics for a full explanation.

    Comment by wwinston — October 21, 2009 @ 7:25 am

  10. Wayne, (if your book explains this – direct me there) do you have some exemplars from previous periods, such as MJ or Magic, Bird, Kareem (or maybe role players from their teams, D Johnson, Byron Scott, AC Green, Pippen, etc. – players who had multiple championships, being analyzed to see what some common +/- values are in relation to winning a division or championship? For example, on the 95-96 Bulls, what were the adjusted +/- values for the key players – and does this account for the lull of the Bulls (and Pippen’s productivity) during Jordan’s baseball days?

    BTW – I was just directed to your site today from Beger’s article (http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/12405218) and I like much of what I have read for the past hour. Thank you for your insights and sharing this with the world!

    Comment by Steve Price — October 24, 2009 @ 1:13 pm

  11. What were Granger’s stats when Troy Murphy was healthy vs. not? I truly have no idea. But in reality your +/- stat is one for years I had wondered about. I just figured the NBA adopted what hockey had been tracking.

    There is one layer that statistics cannot account for. That’s the emotional layer. If this is not true, then why have coaches? It is impossible to account for how well a player can perform in a different environment (take new NYJ WR Braylon Edwards as a prime example.)

    Comment by Chief Dunksalot — October 24, 2009 @ 8:41 pm

  12. If Carlisle “gets the most out of players” and yet the team’s offensive and defensive efficiency both fell in 08-09 regular season compared to the previous season, the later considerably, then I guess either the front office had a bad season staffing the 08-09 team or the league got better or Carlisle had an off year. Or some combination.

    This year the front office looks to have done a better job filling the roster. Will check the results and who gets more of the credit. Or should.

    Comment by Crow — October 26, 2009 @ 5:46 am

  13. The book explains how to do Adjusted +/-. With regards to Carlisle last year many minutes were played by subpar guys: Wright and George-this killed efficiency. Take their minutes out and Mavs were really pretty good last year.

    Comment by wayne winston — October 26, 2009 @ 4:04 pm

  14. I understand your coaching study was multi-year.
    I was mainly pointing out that this past regular season ran somewhat counter and somewhat under the radar as such and that the story is layered.

    Comment by Crow — October 27, 2009 @ 12:49 am

  15. The second season of running his systems with his staff and a better player cast such give ripe conditions for strong performance.

    Comment by Crow — October 27, 2009 @ 12:53 am

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