March 16, 2014

NCAA Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:47 pm

Based on my friend and colleague’s Sagarin ratings, here are my odds on teams winning each region, semis and championship. I only listed teams with at least a 1% chance. I also believe the regions are of relatively equal strength, despite what some commentators said.

South  Region

Team Chance
Florida 27.60%
Kansas 22.50%
UCLA 11.80%
Ohio state 9.90%
Syracuse 8.40%
Pitt 6.60%
VCU 6.30%
New Mexico 2.70%
Stanford 2.10%

 

 

 

East Region

Team Chance
Vill 25.20%
Virginia 23.10%
Mich St. 18.70%
Iowa St 14.60%
UCONN 5.00%
Cinn 3.90%
UNC 2.70%
Providence 2.40%
Harvard 1.50%
Memphis 1.30%

Midwest Region

Team Chance
Louisville 36.30%
Duke 17.10%
Michigan 15.20%
Wichita 12.80%
UK 4.90%
Iowa 3.00%
Tenn 2.70%
ASU 2.20%
St. Louis 1.30%
Kans. St 1.20%
Texas 1.20%

 

West Region

Team Chance
Arizona 42.10%
Creighton 15.20%
Wisc 15.10%
San Diego St 6.20%
Ok St. 5.20%
Oklahoma 4.30%
Baylor 3.90%
Oregon 3.70%
Gonzaga 2.60%

 

Semifinal 1

Team Chance
Vill 14.50%
Florida 14.10%
Virginia 13.00%
Kansas 12.20%
Mich St. 9.40%
Iowa St 7.20%
UCLA 5.40%
Ohio state 5.00%
Syracuse 4.80%
Pitt 3.20%
VCU 2.70%
UCONN 1.70%
UNC 1.30%
Cinn 1.10%

 

Semifinal 2

Team Chance
Arizona 23.60%
Louisville 20.60%
Duke 8.50%
Wisc 8.10%
Michigan 7.10%
Creighton 6.80%
Wichita 5.60%
UK 3.20%
San Diego St 3.10%
Ok St. 2.40%
Baylor 1.90%
Oklahoma 1.70%
Gonzaga 1.50%
Iowa 1.30%

 

 

Championship

Team Chance
Arizona 18.10%
Louisville 10.90%
Florida 7.70%
Virginia 7.30%
Kansas 6.80%
Vill 6.50%
Mich St. 5.10%
Duke 3.90%
Iowa St 3.70%
Michigan 3.60%
Wisc 3.20%
Wichita 2.90%
Creighton 2.50%
Ohio state 2.30%
UK 1.50%
Syracuse 1.40%
Ok St. 1.40%
UCLA 1.30%
San Diego St 1.20%

 

 

4 Comments »

  1. Love your stuff!
    Does points per possession for both O & D (say per 80 possessions instead of 100 in the NBA) and point differential have any modeling impact on the NCAA Tournament?

    Comment by David — March 17, 2014 @ 12:08 am

  2. Hi Wayne –

    Will you be posting your odds to advance each round like you have in the past? I love that data.

    Thanks in advance!!!

    Matt Callahan

    Comment by matt callahan — March 17, 2014 @ 1:19 am

  3. Hi Wayne,

    As Matt said, the odds to advance each round is what I use every year – do you plan to add that this year too?

    Thanks!

    Comment by Johnny — March 17, 2014 @ 11:35 am

  4. I will work on it and certainly have it after play in games at latest.

    Comment by wwinston — March 17, 2014 @ 2:15 pm

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