October 4, 2009

Who will win the World Series?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:17 pm

Although we do not know who will be the final playoff team (Minnesota or Detroit) these two teams are pretty equal so I went ahead and played out the baseball playoffs and World Series 10,000 times. I began by using logistic regression (se chapter 40 of  Matheletics) to obtain chess-like ratings for each playoff team. I then adjusted these ratings based on the relative strength of each team’s playoff rotaiton vis a vis their regular season pitching rotation. After factoring in home edge here is the fraction of the time each team won the World Series.

  • Yankees 26%
  • Angels 19%
  • Red Sox 17%
  • Dodgers 12%
  • Phillies 10%
  • Rockies 7%
  • Cardinals 5%
  • Tigers or Twins 4%

The reason for the Cardinal’s low chance is that they played the easiest schedule in baseball. Toronto, by the way played baseball’s toughest schedule.

1 Comment »

  1. thanks

    Comment by wwinston — October 14, 2009 @ 5:17 am

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