March 17, 2013

NCAA odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:44 pm

Here arechances each team  wins 0,1,2,3,4,5 or 6 games.

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Louisville 0.0029 0.1892 0.1603 0.1812 0.1403 0.1097 0.2164
Florida 0.0309 0.1894 0.2388 0.2071 0.1163 0.0908 0.1267
Indiana 0.0236 0.2178 0.2203 0.1366 0.1736 0.1062 0.1219
Kansas 0.0209 0.2714 0.2302 0.2169 0.107 0.0743 0.0793
Gonzaga 0.0074 0.3568 0.2179 0.1588 0.1343 0.0586 0.0662
Ohio State 0.088 0.2576 0.1995 0.1972 0.1376 0.0589 0.0612
Duke 0.0352 0.294 0.2511 0.224 0.0858 0.0533 0.0566
Georgetown 0.0788 0.2687 0.3609 0.1405 0.0707 0.0454 0.035
Syracuse 0.083 0.2665 0.3769 0.1048 0.0937 0.0449 0.0302
Michigan St. 0.1736 0.2593 0.2717 0.1776 0.0562 0.0344 0.0272
Michigan 0.1293 0.2808 0.3224 0.1454 0.0638 0.0326 0.0257
Miami 0.1014 0.2737 0.221 0.2354 0.1015 0.0429 0.0241
Wisconsin 0.3181 0.2346 0.2422 0.0904 0.0683 0.0259 0.0205
Pittsburgh 0.2911 0.4137 0.121 0.0862 0.0516 0.0192 0.0172
Marquette 0.2809 0.2301 0.2326 0.1609 0.065 0.02 0.0105
New Mexico 0.1606 0.3522 0.2817 0.125 0.0542 0.0164 0.0099
St. Louis 0.2033 0.3381 0.3232 0.0775 0.0309 0.0174 0.0096
Kansas St. 0.3055 0.3766 0.201 0.0652 0.0347 0.0103 0.0067
Arizona 0.3535 0.3053 0.2053 0.083 0.0368 0.0102 0.0059
UNC 0.3643 0.425 0.1031 0.0706 0.0204 0.0109 0.0057
Okla. St. 0.3486 0.3035 0.2563 0.0535 0.023 0.0099 0.0052
Missouri 0.3817 0.4831 0.0623 0.041 0.0176 0.0093 0.005
St. Mary’s 0.5795 0.1941 0.1206 0.0596 0.0287 0.0106 0.0044
ND 0.3968 0.3891 0.1032 0.0691 0.0279 0.0096 0.0043
Creighton 0.4184 0.3734 0.1143 0.0648 0.0175 0.0074 0.0042
NC State 0.3332 0.4821 0.0981 0.0416 0.0307 0.0109 0.0034
VCU 0.3178 0.391 0.1934 0.0644 0.0219 0.0083 0.0032
Memphis 0.4146 0.351 0.1452 0.0647 0.0164 0.0053 0.0028
UNLV 0.404 0.3817 0.1556 0.035 0.017 0.0052 0.0015
Illinois 0.4681 0.3365 0.102 0.0703 0.0173 0.0044 0.0014
San Diego St. 0.4439 0.36 0.1447 0.0341 0.0113 0.0048 0.0012
Minn 0.4396 0.4278 0.0787 0.0362 0.0109 0.0056 0.0012
Butler 0.3726 0.3655 0.1617 0.0746 0.0201 0.0043 0.0012
Ole Miss 0.6819 0.1688 0.1066 0.0272 0.011 0.0035 0.001
Cinncinati 0.5816 0.3007 0.0709 0.0359 0.0071 0.0029 0.0009
Wichita St. 0.7089 0.2223 0.0442 0.0152 0.007 0.0016 0.0008
Villanova 0.6357 0.2849 0.0478 0.0234 0.0056 0.0019 0.0007
Oklahoma 0.5561 0.3066 0.1061 0.0232 0.006 0.0013 0.0007
Colorado 0.5319 0.3122 0.0872 0.0523 0.0125 0.0032 0.0007
Middle Tenn 0.7778 0.1343 0.0561 0.0213 0.0071 0.0024 0.0007
Col. State 0.6183 0.3248 0.0334 0.0151 0.006 0.0019 0.0005
UCLA 0.5604 0.3563 0.0535 0.0223 0.0055 0.0016 0.0004
Temple 0.6668 0.2789 0.0355 0.0116 0.0055 0.0014 0.0003
LASALLE 0.8456 0.1109 0.0344 0.0067 0.002 0.0001 0.0003
Belmont 0.6465 0.217 0.0991 0.028 0.0077 0.0015 0.0002
Davidson 0.7191 0.154 0.0886 0.0297 0.0073 0.0011 0.0002
Oregon 0.6514 0.2115 0.1141 0.0167 0.0045 0.0017 0.0001
Bucknell 0.6274 0.2504 0.0885 0.0272 0.0056 0.0008 0.0001
Boise St. 0.8489 0.1091 0.0325 0.0077 0.0016 0.0001 0.0001
Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Louisville 0.0029 0.1892 0.1603 0.1812 0.1403 0.1097 0.2164
Florida 0.0309 0.1894 0.2388 0.2071 0.1163 0.0908 0.1267
Indiana 0.0236 0.2178 0.2203 0.1366 0.1736 0.1062 0.1219
Kansas 0.0209 0.2714 0.2302 0.2169 0.107 0.0743 0.0793
Gonzaga 0.0074 0.3568 0.2179 0.1588 0.1343 0.0586 0.0662
Ohio State 0.088 0.2576 0.1995 0.1972 0.1376 0.0589 0.0612
Duke 0.0352 0.294 0.2511 0.224 0.0858 0.0533 0.0566
Georgetown 0.0788 0.2687 0.3609 0.1405 0.0707 0.0454 0.035
Syracuse 0.083 0.2665 0.3769 0.1048 0.0937 0.0449 0.0302
Michigan St. 0.1736 0.2593 0.2717 0.1776 0.0562 0.0344 0.0272
Michigan 0.1293 0.2808 0.3224 0.1454 0.0638 0.0326 0.0257
Miami 0.1014 0.2737 0.221 0.2354 0.1015 0.0429 0.0241
Wisconsin 0.3181 0.2346 0.2422 0.0904 0.0683 0.0259 0.0205
Pittsburgh 0.2911 0.4137 0.121 0.0862 0.0516 0.0192 0.0172
Marquette 0.2809 0.2301 0.2326 0.1609 0.065 0.02 0.0105
New Mexico 0.1606 0.3522 0.2817 0.125 0.0542 0.0164 0.0099
St. Louis 0.2033 0.3381 0.3232 0.0775 0.0309 0.0174 0.0096
Kansas St. 0.3055 0.3766 0.201 0.0652 0.0347 0.0103 0.0067
Arizona 0.3535 0.3053 0.2053 0.083 0.0368 0.0102 0.0059
UNC 0.3643 0.425 0.1031 0.0706 0.0204 0.0109 0.0057
Okla. St. 0.3486 0.3035 0.2563 0.0535 0.023 0.0099 0.0052
Missouri 0.3817 0.4831 0.0623 0.041 0.0176 0.0093 0.005
St. Mary’s 0.5795 0.1941 0.1206 0.0596 0.0287 0.0106 0.0044
ND 0.3968 0.3891 0.1032 0.0691 0.0279 0.0096 0.0043
Creighton 0.4184 0.3734 0.1143 0.0648 0.0175 0.0074 0.0042
NC State 0.3332 0.4821 0.0981 0.0416 0.0307 0.0109 0.0034
VCU 0.3178 0.391 0.1934 0.0644 0.0219 0.0083 0.0032
Memphis 0.4146 0.351 0.1452 0.0647 0.0164 0.0053 0.0028
UNLV 0.404 0.3817 0.1556 0.035 0.017 0.0052 0.0015
Illinois 0.4681 0.3365 0.102 0.0703 0.0173 0.0044 0.0014
San Diego St. 0.4439 0.36 0.1447 0.0341 0.0113 0.0048 0.0012
Minn 0.4396 0.4278 0.0787 0.0362 0.0109 0.0056 0.0012
Butler 0.3726 0.3655 0.1617 0.0746 0.0201 0.0043 0.0012
Ole Miss 0.6819 0.1688 0.1066 0.0272 0.011 0.0035 0.001
Cinncinati 0.5816 0.3007 0.0709 0.0359 0.0071 0.0029 0.0009
Wichita St. 0.7089 0.2223 0.0442 0.0152 0.007 0.0016 0.0008
Villanova 0.6357 0.2849 0.0478 0.0234 0.0056 0.0019 0.0007
Oklahoma 0.5561 0.3066 0.1061 0.0232 0.006 0.0013 0.0007
Colorado 0.5319 0.3122 0.0872 0.0523 0.0125 0.0032 0.0007
Middle Tenn 0.7778 0.1343 0.0561 0.0213 0.0071 0.0024 0.0007
Col. State 0.6183 0.3248 0.0334 0.0151 0.006 0.0019 0.0005
UCLA 0.5604 0.3563 0.0535 0.0223 0.0055 0.0016 0.0004
Temple 0.6668 0.2789 0.0355 0.0116 0.0055 0.0014 0.0003
LASALLE 0.8456 0.1109 0.0344 0.0067 0.002 0.0001 0.0003
Belmont 0.6465 0.217 0.0991 0.028 0.0077 0.0015 0.0002
Davidson 0.7191 0.154 0.0886 0.0297 0.0073 0.0011 0.0002
Oregon 0.6514 0.2115 0.1141 0.0167 0.0045 0.0017 0.0001
Bucknell 0.6274 0.2504 0.0885 0.0272 0.0056 0.0008 0.0001
Boise St. 0.8489 0.1091 0.0325 0.0077 0.0016 0.0001 0.0001

17 Comments »

  1. Two questions.

    1) Is this based on the Sagarin ratings?

    2) Isn’t it be common for coaches to shorten their bench rotations, now that each game is extremely important? Are there any metrics to adjust for this?

    Comment by Mike — March 18, 2013 @ 12:22 pm

  2. Wayne – thanks for posting! Are there some teams missing from the final 64? I noticed a few missing like Harvard, Valpo, etc that aren’t part of the play-in games.

    Comment by Justin — March 18, 2013 @ 2:34 pm

  3. There are only 50 of the 68 teams here….

    Comment by Mark — March 18, 2013 @ 5:32 pm

  4. I like your NCAA stats and they helped me last year in my pool. But I don’t understand this year’s. How can Louisville’s percentage of winning a certain number of games go up-down-up-down. Shouldn’t there be a steady rise/decline?

    Comment by Jeremy — March 18, 2013 @ 7:15 pm

  5. Thanks very much for this. Are the probabilities for St Mary’s et al (the play in teams) reflect their chance of winning the ’round 1′ game?

    Comment by Todd — March 18, 2013 @ 7:47 pm

  6. Yes on Sagarin. I do not know how to adjust for shortening bench

    Comment by wwinston — March 18, 2013 @ 9:23 pm

  7. They are good in sagarin and do not have horrible bracket

    Comment by wwinston — March 18, 2013 @ 9:24 pm

  8. They just have no chance so I did not post them

    Comment by wwinston — March 18, 2013 @ 9:24 pm

  9. I left out teams that never won in 10,000 sims.

    Comment by wwinston — March 18, 2013 @ 9:25 pm

  10. It is chance they win exactly that number of games

    Comment by wwinston — March 18, 2013 @ 9:25 pm

  11. I simulated play in game but did not count it in number of wins so 1 win for play in team means they win on Thursday or Friday and then go out

    Comment by wwinston — March 18, 2013 @ 9:26 pm

  12. Professor Winston,
    Did you use a two-way data table to come up with these probabilities? How can I re-create your probability table in Excel? Thanks very much!

    Comment by Patrick — March 20, 2013 @ 2:19 pm

  13. @risk addin

    Comment by wwinston — March 20, 2013 @ 3:37 pm

  14. everybody has them around 12%. they are better than most teams seeded above them

    Comment by wwinston — March 20, 2013 @ 3:38 pm

  15. The layout is clear and obvious which is great .. Wondering if you can use a similar format to predict the final four? From there, it’s really about who gets hot and emotions/momentum during the Sweet 16 weekend really matter .. I only see Florida right now as a “cinderella” in 2013 and upsets always happen .. Do you add in a “luck” element or “tempo” like the site below?

    http://kenpom.com/index.php

    I think Georgetown, Syracuse, and Ohio State should be higher and Gonzaga should be way, way lower than 6%.

    The “Help” section outlines kenpom’s model in more detail. Maybe helpful for you

    Comment by Raj Laroia — March 22, 2013 @ 1:29 am

  16. By the way, you were quoted in WSJ the other day .. Your work is getting international interest :)

    Comment by Raj Laroia — March 22, 2013 @ 1:31 am

  17. so how many simulations would it take for FGCU to win 1,2,3 times?

    Comment by xangoir — March 27, 2013 @ 11:37 am

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