December 24, 2012

NFL Ratings 12-24

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:30 am
Rank Team off def total
1 Seattle
Seahawks
2.67 -8.61 11.28
2 Denver Broncos 6.77 -3.98 10.74
3 New England Patriots 11.39 1.03 10.36
4 San Francisco 49ers 4.40 -5.40 9.80
5 Chicago Bears 1.56 -4.96 6.52
6 Green Bay Packers 3.82 -2.42 6.24
7 Atlanta Falcons 2.30 -3.87 6.17
8 Houston Texans 2.60 -2.72 5.33
9 New York Giants 2.52 -0.91 3.43
10 Washington Redskins 5.40 2.03 3.37
11 New Orleans Saints 6.39 3.18 3.21
12 Baltimore Ravens 1.71 -0.91 2.62
13 Cincinnati Bengals 2.45 0.05 2.40
14 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.28 -2.65 2.37
15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.77 1.37 0.39
16 Minnesota Vikings 0.19 0.02 0.17
17 St. Louis Rams -2.18 -2.14 -0.04
18 San Diego Chargers -0.63 -0.13 -0.51
19 Miami Dolphins -4.33 -3.18 -1.15
20 Detroit Lions 2.46 3.66 -1.20
21 Dallas Cowboys 1.33 2.77 -1.43
22 Arizona Cardinals -4.44 -2.62 -1.82
23 Carolina Panthers -2.54 0.03 -2.58
24 Cleveland Browns -4.61 -0.27 -4.33
25 Indianapolis Colts -1.80 2.81 -4.61
26 Buffalo Bills 0.11 5.09 -4.99
27 Philadelphia Eagles -4.24 2.02 -6.26
28 New York Jets -5.61 0.75 -6.36
29 Tennessee Titans -4.80 6.28 -11.07
30 Jacksonville Jaguars -8.61 3.31 -11.92
31 Oakland Raiders -5.33 6.65 -11.98
32 Kansas City Chiefs -10.44 3.73 -14.17

3 Comments »

  1. Using the model as per the book, if you kept the team ratings constant and made just the Home Field Advantage (HFA) a variable when solving the least squares (and applied it to just one teams home games at a time) would this be a realistic way to solve for individual HFA’s rather than just assuming HFA was an average constant across all teams (e.g. to find out if any teams HFA is substantially above or below the league average – for example Seattle)?

    Thanks,

    Comment by George — December 28, 2012 @ 2:13 pm

  2. Yes, but I would be wary of results unless a team’s superior or inferior home field edge persisted over several years.

    Comment by wwinston — December 29, 2012 @ 4:13 pm

  3. Thanks for the response – this is really helpful to a discussion that started on another site (I thought the idea was sound in principle but where I don’t have a great maths background I wasn’t 100% sure). Basically I have done this over the last 6 years of data (through week 16 of this season) and Seattle’s Home Field Edge is 3.85 points above the league average in that period which I think may be significant (the assumption for the reason at the moment includes, travel and familiarity e.g. Miami will have only played once at the ground before this year). Thanks again.

    Comment by George — December 29, 2012 @ 6:21 pm

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