March 11, 2012

e NCAA Tourney Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:13 pm

The table below gives the chance of each team winning 0-6 games (not counting playin as a game!)  For example, Kentucky has a 22.58 chance of winning tourney, a 12.94% chance of winning 5 games (losing in championship), a 15.4% chance of  winning 4 gamesand losing in national semifinal, etc. Picks are based on great Sagarin ratings an 5000 simulations of tournament with Palisade’s great @RISK package.

    Games won
Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Kentucky 0.0062 0.1356 0.2174 0.1316 0.154 0.1294 0.2258
Ohio St. 0.0322 0.1564 0.1462 0.2278 0.1632 0.1116 0.1626
UNC 0.0524 0.2276 0.1592 0.2202 0.1574 0.089 0.0942
Kansas 0.053 0.2086 0.1812 0.2122 0.1594 0.0922 0.0934
Mich St 0.0298 0.2842 0.1768 0.1826 0.1558 0.0814 0.0894
Missouri 0.0252 0.3038 0.1854 0.2126 0.1376 0.0678 0.0676
Syracuse 0.056 0.2236 0.2498 0.2344 0.1032 0.067 0.066
Wisconsin 0.116 0.2552 0.3184 0.1622 0.0704 0.0432 0.0346
Duke 0.1586 0.2218 0.2548 0.2378 0.0672 0.0374 0.0224
IU 0.1882 0.34 0.3126 0.0664 0.049 0.026 0.0178
Wichita St 0.2364 0.352 0.2774 0.0538 0.0398 0.024 0.0166
Baylor 0.265 0.2436 0.1996 0.195 0.057 0.0232 0.0166
Georgetown 0.365 0.1876 0.2614 0.0996 0.053 0.0194 0.014
Marquette 0.3008 0.1974 0.287 0.1204 0.0618 0.0188 0.0138
New Mex 0.342 0.273 0.2446 0.0784 0.0398 0.0144 0.0078
Louisville 0.2608 0.3388 0.263 0.0794 0.0392 0.012 0.0068
Florida 0.4218 0.3744 0.087 0.0724 0.0304 0.0084 0.0056
Memphis 0.452 0.3684 0.077 0.052 0.0326 0.013 0.005
Michigan 0.2924 0.3052 0.272 0.0822 0.0334 0.0104 0.0044
FSU 0.2896 0.318 0.284 0.0716 0.0234 0.0098 0.0036
UNLV 0.277 0.4012 0.168 0.1134 0.027 0.01 0.0034
Vandy 0.3794 0.39 0.1468 0.0534 0.0192 0.0078 0.0034
Kans St. 0.3138 0.476 0.1232 0.056 0.0214 0.0066 0.003
St. Louis 0.548 0.3204 0.0652 0.0382 0.021 0.0052 0.002
Cal 0.5512 0.2184 0.1614 0.0438 0.0194 0.0038 0.002
Creighton 0.4816 0.3772 0.0648 0.0492 0.0204 0.005 0.0018
Temple 0.476 0.2658 0.1844 0.0528 0.0162 0.0032 0.0016
Iowa St 0.4634 0.4486 0.0562 0.0192 0.007 0.0042 0.0014
Murray St 0.3718 0.3868 0.1798 0.0456 0.011 0.0036 0.0014
Texas 0.4558 0.2562 0.2184 0.0434 0.0186 0.0062 0.0014
Belmont 0.635 0.1538 0.151 0.0424 0.0126 0.0038 0.0014
Alabama 0.5184 0.3528 0.061 0.0454 0.0174 0.0038 0.0012
Purdue 0.453 0.399 0.0772 0.0448 0.021 0.004 0.001
Cinn 0.5442 0.2328 0.173 0.0354 0.0108 0.003 0.0008
Gonzaga 0.4508 0.4488 0.0474 0.0366 0.0118 0.0038 0.0008
West Vir 0.5492 0.3688 0.0446 0.0288 0.006 0.0018 0.0008
SD St. 0.5072 0.3274 0.1256 0.0288 0.0074 0.0028 0.0008
St. Mary’s 0.547 0.3494 0.06 0.0312 0.009 0.0026 0.0008
ND 0.4526 0.3648 0.1108 0.06 0.0082 0.003 0.0006
UVA 0.5782 0.2984 0.0594 0.0422 0.018 0.0032 0.0006
NC St. 0.4928 0.3312 0.1354 0.0286 0.0104 0.0012 0.0004
BYU 0.8184 0.0846 0.0724 0.0168 0.0058 0.0016 0.0004
Uconn 0.5366 0.41 0.036 0.0112 0.0052 0.0008 0.0002
Xavier 0.5474 0.3132 0.0904 0.0414 0.0056 0.0018 0.0002
Harvard 0.6206 0.2706 0.0802 0.0214 0.0056 0.0014 0.0002
St. Bon. 0.7104 0.193 0.0812 0.0124 0.0022 0.0006 0.0002
Ohio 0.7076 0.1882 0.0846 0.015 0.0038 0.0006 0.0002
VCU 0.7636 0.1692 0.0568 0.0074 0.002 0.001 0
New Mex St 0.8118 0.1388 0.0432 0.0052 0.0008 0.0002 0
Colorado 0.723 0.2092 0.0522 0.014 0.0016 0 0
SD State 0.735 0.146 0.0778 0.0334 0.0068 0.001 0
Lehigh 0.8414 0.1002 0.0464 0.0102 0.0018 0 0
LIU 0.9702 0.027 0.0028 0 0 0 0
Long Beach 0.658 0.1984 0.111 0.0238 0.0068 0.002 0
Davidson 0.7392 0.1898 0.0596 0.0096 0.0014 0.0004 0
Col St 0.6282 0.2694 0.0826 0.0164 0.0028 0.0006 0
Norfolk 0.9748 0.0234 0.0018 0 0 0 0
UNC Asheville 0.944 0.0438 0.0108 0.0012 0.0002 0 0
So. Miss. 0.6862 0.2566 0.0446 0.0096 0.0026 0.0004 0
Montana 0.884 0.0842 0.0262 0.0048 0.0006 0.0002 0
Loyola Md 0.9678 0.026 0.0052 0.001 0 0 0
Detroit 0.947 0.043 0.0082 0.0018 0 0 0
Wst Ky 0.995 0.0046 0.0004 0 0 0 0
Miss St. 0.9988 0.0012 0 0 0 0 0
Iona 0.8808 0.0618 0.0446 0.0096 0.003 0.0002 0
Lamar 0.9656 0.0264 0.0066 0.0012 0 0.0002 0
Vermont 0.982 0.016 0.0014 0.0006 0 0 0
USF 0.9728 0.0224 0.0046 0.0002 0 0 0

 

See below for the chance wins >= a given number of games.  So UK has 50.9% chance of making Final Four, etc.

Team >=0 >=1 >=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Kentucky 1 0.9938 0.8582 0.6408 0.5092 0.3552 0.2258
Ohio St. 1 0.9678 0.8114 0.6652 0.4374 0.2742 0.1626
UNC 1 0.9476 0.72 0.5608 0.3406 0.1832 0.0942
Kansas 1 0.947 0.7384 0.5572 0.345 0.1856 0.0934
Mich St 1 0.9702 0.686 0.5092 0.3266 0.1708 0.0894
Missouri 1 0.9748 0.671 0.4856 0.273 0.1354 0.0676
Syracuse 1 0.944 0.7204 0.4706 0.2362 0.133 0.066
Wisconsin 1 0.884 0.6288 0.3104 0.1482 0.0778 0.0346
Duke 1 0.8414 0.6196 0.3648 0.127 0.0598 0.0224
IU 1 0.8118 0.4718 0.1592 0.0928 0.0438 0.0178
Wichita St 1 0.7636 0.4116 0.1342 0.0804 0.0406 0.0166
Baylor 1 0.735 0.4914 0.2918 0.0968 0.0398 0.0166
Georgetown 1 0.635 0.4474 0.186 0.0864 0.0334 0.014
Marquette 1 0.6992 0.5018 0.2148 0.0944 0.0326 0.0138
New Mex 1 0.658 0.385 0.1404 0.062 0.0222 0.0078
Louisville 1 0.7392 0.4004 0.1374 0.058 0.0188 0.0068
Florida 1 0.5782 0.2038 0.1168 0.0444 0.014 0.0056
Memphis 1 0.548 0.1796 0.1026 0.0506 0.018 0.005
Michigan 1 0.7076 0.4024 0.1304 0.0482 0.0148 0.0044
FSU 1 0.7104 0.3924 0.1084 0.0368 0.0134 0.0036
UNLV 1 0.723 0.3218 0.1538 0.0404 0.0134 0.0034
Vandy 1 0.6206 0.2306 0.0838 0.0304 0.0112 0.0034
Kans St. 1 0.6862 0.2102 0.087 0.031 0.0096 0.003
St. Louis 1 0.452 0.1316 0.0664 0.0282 0.0072 0.002
Cal 1 0.4488 0.2304 0.069 0.0252 0.0058 0.002
Creighton 1 0.5184 0.1412 0.0764 0.0272 0.0068 0.0018
Temple 1 0.524 0.2582 0.0738 0.021 0.0048 0.0016
Iowa St 1 0.5366 0.088 0.0318 0.0126 0.0056 0.0014
Murray St 1 0.6282 0.2414 0.0616 0.016 0.005 0.0014
Texas 1 0.5442 0.288 0.0696 0.0262 0.0076 0.0014
Belmont 1 0.365 0.2112 0.0602 0.0178 0.0052 0.0014
Alabama 1 0.4816 0.1288 0.0678 0.0224 0.005 0.0012
Purdue 1 0.547 0.148 0.0708 0.026 0.005 0.001
Cinn 1 0.4558 0.223 0.05 0.0146 0.0038 0.0008
Gonzaga 1 0.5492 0.1004 0.053 0.0164 0.0046 0.0008
West Vir 1 0.4508 0.082 0.0374 0.0086 0.0026 0.0008
SD St. 1 0.4928 0.1654 0.0398 0.011 0.0036 0.0008
St. Mary’s 1 0.453 0.1036 0.0436 0.0124 0.0034 0.0008
ND 1 0.5474 0.1826 0.0718 0.0118 0.0036 0.0006
UVA 1 0.4218 0.1234 0.064 0.0218 0.0038 0.0006
NC St. 1 0.5072 0.176 0.0406 0.012 0.0016 0.0004
BYU 1 0.1816 0.097 0.0246 0.0078 0.002 0.0004
Uconn 1 0.4634 0.0534 0.0174 0.0062 0.001 0.0002
Xavier 1 0.4526 0.1394 0.049 0.0076 0.002 0.0002
Harvard 1 0.3794 0.1088 0.0286 0.0072 0.0016 0.0002
St. Bon. 1 0.2896 0.0966 0.0154 0.003 0.0008 0.0002
Ohio 1 0.2924 0.1042 0.0196 0.0046 0.0008 0.0002
VCU 1 0.2364 0.0672 0.0104 0.003 0.001 0
New Mex St 1 0.1882 0.0494 0.0062 0.001 0.0002 0
Colorado 1 0.277 0.0678 0.0156 0.0016 0 0
SD State 1 0.265 0.119 0.0412 0.0078 0.001 0
Lehigh 1 0.1586 0.0584 0.012 0.0018 0 0
LIU 1 0.0298 0.0028 0 0 0 0
Long Beach 1 0.342 0.1436 0.0326 0.0088 0.002 0
Davidson 1 0.2608 0.071 0.0114 0.0018 0.0004 0
Col St 1 0.3718 0.1024 0.0198 0.0034 0.0006 0
Norfolk 1 0.0252 0.0018 0 0 0 0
UNC Asheville 1 0.056 0.0122 0.0014 0.0002 0 0
So. Miss. 1 0.3138 0.0572 0.0126 0.003 0.0004 0
Montana 1 0.116 0.0318 0.0056 0.0008 0.0002 0
Loyola Md 1 0.0322 0.0062 0.001 0 0 0
Detroit 1 0.053 0.01 0.0018 0 0 0
Wst Ky 1 0.005 0.0004 0 0 0 0
Miss St. 1 0.0012 0 0 0 0 0
Iona 1 0.1192 0.0574 0.0128 0.0032 0.0002 0
Lamar 1 0.0344 0.008 0.0014 0.0002 0.0002 0
Vermont 1 0.018 0.002 0.0006 0 0 0
USF 1 0.0272 0.0048 0.0002 0 0 0

11 Comments »

  1. Very cool. So does the @Risk package effectively save you from having to create data tables for every match and then totaling everything up at the end (as I reworked the sheet from the book to have data tables for the winner of each region plus the outright winner – but to do data tables for every match in one sheet would probably stretch my laptop).

    Comment by Geirge — March 12, 2012 @ 4:20 pm

  2. Wayne,

    As a Hoosier, I can’t be disappointed with the great season. Do you have a suggested point adjustment for the loss of Verdell Jones?

    Comment by Mike — March 12, 2012 @ 6:48 pm

  3. [...] top college basketball analysts: Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. Both sets of ratings can be used to calculate a team’s expected chance to reach a certain round of the tournament. This year, I’ve also added Nate Silver’s ratings [...]

    Pingback by Your Annual Geek’s Guide to March Madness | Streaming Media Hosting — March 12, 2012 @ 9:05 pm

  4. [...] top college basketball analysts: Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin. Both sets of ratings can be used to calculate a team’s expected chance to reach a certain round of the tournament. This year, I’ve also added Nate Silver’s ratings [...]

    Pingback by Your Annual Geek’s Guide to March Madness | Porzellan — March 12, 2012 @ 11:25 pm

  5. [...] Winston at mathletics shows Kentucky and Ohio State as the top two [...]

    Pingback by Abnormal Brackets: 2012 edition | Abnormal Returns — March 13, 2012 @ 9:36 am

  6. My one regret from being at IU and in Kelley was not taking a class one of your classes.

    Comment by John — March 13, 2012 @ 10:53 am

  7. Hi Wayne,
    Sagarin ratings give you a number of points for each team. What stochastic component do you add to do the simulations?
    Thnak you!

    Comment by Michael — March 13, 2012 @ 10:59 am

  8. I think he costs us a point or 2 becuase Abell needs to play more

    Comment by wwinston — March 13, 2012 @ 11:44 am

  9. 10 point std dev about prediction

    Comment by wwinston — March 13, 2012 @ 11:46 am

  10. Thanks. Best of luck in future

    Comment by wwinston — March 13, 2012 @ 11:46 am

  11. Hey Wayne, I have an interesting question… You say there were 5,000 simulations done. Of the 5,000 simulations taking 2011 as the example (last year), were any of the simulations 100% correct or predicted the final four? If so, how many were correct and if not, what was the closest simulation percentage wise? I’d be curious to know the same thing when this years tourney is all said and done.

    Comment by Drew — March 15, 2012 @ 5:21 pm

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