July 3, 2011

One More Thought on Rudy Fernandez

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:18 am

As we previously stated on this web page, we have Rudy Fernandez as a well above average player during the 10-11 season. You really have to look behind the numbers to see why. When Rudy was in last year the Blazers played only 1 PPG (adjusted for strength of opponent) better than average. With Rudy out the Blazers were better: 3 PPG better than average. So how can Rudy come out above average in Adjusted +/-?   The key to this seeming paradox is that Rudy played often with bad teammates. When you look at  the  803 minutes Rudy was in and Mills, Cunningham, A. Johnson, Marks  and Oberto were all out the Blazers were an amazing 11 PPG better than average.  Rest of time Rudy was in Blazers were 7 PPG worse than average. More importantly, if you look at time Rudy was out and Cunningham, Mills, A Johnson, Marks and Oberto were all out the Blazers were only 6 points better than average. When you look at these numbers, it seems clear that when he played Rudy helped the Blazers, hence his +6 Adjusted +/- rating.


  1. [...] One More Thought on Rudy Fernandez: At Mathletics, Wayne Winston explains why Fernandez’s Adjusted +/- was above-average despite his raw net +/- being negative. [...]

    Pingback by Basketball: One More Thought on Rudy Fernandez » Stathead » Blog Archive — July 5, 2011 @ 12:58 pm

  2. I agree, Rudy is a basketball god. As a Blazers fan, I was disappointed that they gave him away for nothing. But Rudy will have the last laugh.

    Comment by Chundy — July 7, 2011 @ 11:08 pm

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