June 13, 2011

Why the Heat went down in Flames

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:48 pm

Earlier today we posted about the great lineup decisions made by Rick Carlisle and his staff. Could Coach Spo done anything different? I believe the Heat made many questionable lineup decisions.

Lebron at #4 was great all season. Why forsake it in the finals?

For the entire season Bosh, Wade, James with Jones or House and no other big guy was fantastic:

  • 105 min Big 3 +Jones plays 40 ppg better than average +76 points
  • 41 min Big 3 +House plays +43 ppg and is +34 points.

Yet we only saw these combos for 3 minutes in the series!!

Chalmers owned Barea; Chalmers should have started Game 5

The Heat realized in Game 6 Chalmers needed to start. But in Games 1-3 Chalmers and Barea in resulted in Heat being +18 points in 42 minutes, so it was clear Chalmers had an edge on on Barea. In Games 4-6 Chalmers continued to own Barea: Heat was +20 points in 50 minutess with Chalmers and Barea in but with Bibby in vs. Barea Mavs were +12 points in 25 minutes.

Heat needed to counter Mavs best lineup and failed.

Kidd Terry Dirk and Chandler in killed  Bosh Wade and James : Mavs were +49 points in 63 minutes. Spo needed to find an answer here. Careful examination shows that with Haslem in for 44 minutes Mavs were +47 points but with Anthony in Heat stayed even in 15 minutes. Anthony should have played more against the Mavs best. His defense  (like Collison’s) really bothered Dirk.

The Heat had a good combination but they hardly used it!

The Heat had a lineup that really hurt the Mavs but they hardly used it: Wade Bosh Haslem Chalmers and Miller or House was +19 points in 24 minutes. I realize this lineup has James sitting, but this lineup let Wade do his thing and gave the Mavs fits. This lineup is also consistent with our prior view that in most situations going small was the way to go.

The Heat rarely put lineups on the floor involving their best players

In this series the 7 Heat players with the Best Adjusted +/- were James, Bosh, Wade, Chalmers, Miller, House and Howard. Yet the Heat played lineups involving these 7 players for only 7 minutes?

Look at how top Heat lineups performed: The two lineups that played by far the most were both outscored big time!

For example Heat lineup 1 played 5.24 points better than average in 66 minutes and was outscored by 5 points.

 1  Anthony     Bosh        James       Wade        Bibby          5.24    65.95  DAL  MIA*     -3.64    -5       82181_MIA_2011
    2  Bosh        Chalmers    Haslem      James       Wade           1.44    59.12  DAL  MIA*    -13.81   -17       16668_MIA_2011
    3  Anthony     Bosh        Chalmers    James       Wade          11.57    26.16  DAL  MIA*     -1.84    -1       16653_MIA_2011
    4  Bosh        Chalmers    Haslem      James       Miller        25.19    20.75  DAL  MIA*     13.89     6        2332_MIA_2011
    5  Bosh        Chalmers    Haslem      Miller      Wade          20.91    15.62  DAL  MIA*      9.22     3       18460_MIA_2011
    6  Bosh        Haslem      James       Miller      Wade          14.41    13.82  DAL  MIA*     -3.47    -1       18708_MIA_2011
    7  Chalmers    Haslem      Howard      James       Miller        39.23    13.05  DAL  MIA*     29.45     8      


Now look at the lineups the Mavs played the most: Three of the 5 lineups that played the most were great.  Inserting Barea in the starting lineups killed off lineups 3 and 4!  Putting Cardinal in killed off lineup 9. Lineups 7 and 8 rested Kidd and Chandler so Mavs took a hit here. I leave it for you to judge which coach did a better job managing their rotations.
    1  Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Terry         46.56    66.43  MIA  DAL*     31.79    44       21792_DAL_2011
    2  Barea       Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki      19.44    47.51  MIA  DAL*     11.12    11        5410_DAL_2011
    3  Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Nowitzki    Stevenson     -2.09    28.00  MIA  DAL*    -12.00    -7       13600_DAL_2011
    4  Barea       Chandler    Nowitzki    Stevenson   Terry        -11.56    17.15  MIA  DAL*    -22.36    -8       28706_DAL_2011
    5  Chandler    Kidd        Nowitzki    Stevenson   Terry         57.74    15.78  MIA  DAL*     42.61    14       28960_DAL_2011
    6  Cardinal    Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Terry         27.51    14.86  MIA  DAL*     16.15     5       17712_DAL_2011
    7  Barea       Mahinmi     Nowitzki    Stevenson   Terry         -6.55    14.82  MIA  DAL*    -16.20    -5       29186_DAL_2011
    8  Barea       Haywood     Nowitzki    Stevenson   Terry        -29.10    10.94  MIA  DAL*    -39.47    -9       28738_DAL_2011
    9  Chandler    Kidd        Marion      Terry       Stojakovic   -56.89     9.66  MIA  DAL*    -59.70   -12   




  1. hi Wayne, apologies but I couldn’t find the column headers in your previous posts for the +/- lines above. Can you please provide the column headers for the line-up statistics?

    Comment by WLJ — June 14, 2011 @ 7:50 am

  2. i addedan explanation of lineup stuff to post

    Comment by wwinston — June 14, 2011 @ 8:11 am

  3. I have to guess someone (whether a player or Riley or someone) told Spo to change his lineups. Very very odd units he went with from game to game.

    Heat also stopped running the high P/R with LBJ or Wade, it was fairly effective early and then completely dropped

    Comment by Ray — June 14, 2011 @ 4:28 pm

  4. [...] Why the Heat went down in Flames: Mathletics’ Wayne Winston breaks down the Miami Heat’s demise. [...]

    Pingback by Why the Heat went down in Flames » Stathead » Blog Archive — June 14, 2011 @ 5:43 pm

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