I am sure Vegas favors the Heat in the NBA finals, but the Mavs have been the better team in the playoffs. Here is how well the final four teams played during each series.
|Team||ROUND 1||ROUND 2||Round 3||Average|
What does this 15.07 mean? We looked at the ability of Dallas’ opposing players to adjust the actual scoring margin. So if Dallas played opponents who average 10 points better than average for a game and won by 5 on road they played at a level of 10+5+3 (for home edge)=18. Thus Dallas played 15.7 points better than average per game during playoffs. The key thing to note is Heat played at almost exactly the same level during each series and the Mavs worst effort was better than the Heat’s best. Running these ratings through a Monte Carlo simulation gives the Mavs a 65% chance to win the series.
Here is the chance of each possible outcome:
For example, Mavs have a 14% chance to win in 7 games.