April 22, 2011

Thoughts on Pacers, Heat and Mavs

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:08 am

We told the Pacers to play Mike Dunleavy more and they did not listen. The result was another heartbreaking loss. Here are some Adjusted +/- and Impact numbers for the series. Again Impact measures how you change the chance of the team winning the game

  • McRoberts +8 points +35 impact 15 minutes per game
  • Dunleavy +25 points +114 Impact 14 minutes per game
  • Foster +14 points +42 Impact 190 minutes per game
  • Hansbrough -3 points, -45 Impact 35 minutes per game.

For the Heat the Big 3 have been great but give James Jones some love, +12 points and +63 Impact.

For the Mavs Dirk and Terry have been the whole show. Dirk with +20 points rating, +55 Impact and JET with +15 points and +72 Impact.

Barea has a -10 Offense rating, Marion a -13 and Stevenson a -26. This means Mavs score poorly when any of these guys are in. Time maybe for a Corey Brewer siting?


  1. Always interesting to compare what the numbers say vs what you see in the games. McRoberts is a slick interior passer and I thought they could’ve used more of him in this series. I’m guessing Vogel wanted to stick with his starter Hansbrough, but Vogel may have been blinded by Psycho T’s game 1 fluke performance. He should’ve listened to the numbers.

    Foster’s overall game time may have been low, but he has been closing out games over Hibbert. I also think that Foster, being an older player, may lose effectiveness if given more time, so I wouldn’t second guess Vogels decision in that case.

    With Dunleavy, it’s hard to see why the plus/minus numbers love him so much. He played awful in game 1, and did ok in limited minutes in games 2 and 3, but thats a mighty small sample size. If you look at what Paul George has been doing defensively, I can see why you wouldn’t give Dunleavy more burn, particularly given the lackluster season he was having and the fact that he may not be recovered from the broken thumb that kept him out.

    Re: the Mavs, JJ has been shooting the ball poorly, but he played well in yesterday’s ill-fated comeback. Marion is too important to the Mavs defense and rebounding to sit over subpar offense, but I could definitely see giving Stevenson’s minutes to Brewer as a possible tonic to the Mavs struggles.

    Mavs fortunes turn less on these complementary players, though, than they do on Jason Kidd. They need the aggressive Kidd from games 1 and 2 to guide the offense, not the passive Kidd of game 3, to reach their potential in this playoff season.

    Comment by ST — April 22, 2011 @ 5:57 pm

  2. Great comments. You should be on TV!

    Comment by wwinston — April 22, 2011 @ 6:10 pm

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