Who would have thought this series would be must see TV? I think the Pacers were robbed last night. Hibbert did not deserve offensive foul and Foster was pushed out of bounds. But what are the keys to the series? Kyle Korver, Jeff Foster, and Mike Dunleavy.
The Bulls starting lineup of Bogans, Rose, Noah, Deng and Boozer is -3 points in 29 minutes and after adjusting for strength of opponent is playing 11 points worse per 48 minutes than an average lineup. Insert Korver for Bogans and Bulls are +15 points in 16 minutes and play 39 points better than average. Korver has a +131 Impact rating which is off the charts while Brewer (-131) and Bogans (-46) have poor Impact ratings.
The Pacers need to play Foster and Dunleavy much more. They average arounf 15 minutes per game and Dunleavy has a +128 Impact rating and Foster a +71 Impact rating.
Note: Impact rating is like Adjusted +/- but based on how your team’s chance of winning changes while you are in game. Even for two games anything over +50 or below -50 indicates a significant effect on the the game.