April 14, 2011

Final NBA regular season ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:42 am

Here are final regular season ratings. Basically we find the set of ratings that best fit the scores for the relevant time frame. Strength of schedule is included in these ratings. Note Celticsc have been mediocre last 45 days. My pick in the East (I hate to say it) is the Heat. Even with all their struggles they have been the league’s best team (based on scores, not wins and losses. I do not have a Western Conference pick yet. At end of post I summarize the overal ratings trends  by team.

Last 15 days

Team Off Def Overall
Miami Heat 2.75 -6.98 9.73
Oklahoma City Thunder 9.81 1.30 8.51
Denver Nuggets 4.07 -3.67 7.74
Chicago Bulls -1.56 -8.43 6.87
Milwaukee Bucks -3.88 -8.59 4.71
Los Angeles Lakers -2.08 -6.36 4.28
Golden State Warriors 5.18 1.09 4.10
Orlando Magic -5.95 -9.94 3.99
Dallas Mavericks 2.37 -1.32 3.69
Boston Celtics -5.76 -9.37 3.62
New York Knickerbockers 11.22 8.23 2.99
San Antonio Spurs 6.39 3.68 2.71
Memphis Grizzlies -3.17 -5.02 1.85
Portland Trail Blazers -4.29 -4.99 0.69
Cleveland Cavaliers -0.57 -0.64 0.07
Indiana Pacers 2.78 3.16 -0.38
Detroit Pistons 5.46 5.95 -0.49
Utah Jazz -4.56 -3.24 -1.32
Los Angeles Clippers -3.22 -1.79 -1.44
Washington Wizards 4.77 6.40 -1.63
Houston Rockets 1.51 3.64 -2.13
Philadelphia 76ers -5.39 -2.93 -2.46
Sacramento Kings 1.80 4.58 -2.78
Toronto Raptors 0.68 4.70 -4.03
Charlotte Bobcats -3.38 1.97 -5.35
Phoenix Suns 1.00 6.46 -5.46
Atlanta Hawks -7.60 -0.55 -7.05
New Orleans Hornets -6.62 1.03 -7.65
New Jersey Nets -3.13 6.23 -9.36
Minnesota Timberwolves 1.38 15.41 -14.03

Last 30 days

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 5.18 -3.49 8.67
2 Chicago Bulls 0.05 -7.18 7.23
3 Dallas Mavericks -0.36 -7.50 7.14
4 Portland Trail Blazers -1.72 -8.61 6.89
5 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.05 -1.59 6.64
6 Miami Heat 2.96 -3.19 6.15
7 San Antonio Spurs 6.94 1.63 5.31
8 Memphis Grizzlies -1.40 -6.23 4.84
9 Los Angeles Lakers 1.08 -3.33 4.41
10 Houston Rockets 6.17 1.79 4.38
11 Orlando Magic -5.44 -9.26 3.82
12 Golden State Warriors 6.49 3.80 2.68
13 Philadelphia 76ers -0.20 -1.37 1.17
14 Boston Celtics -10.10 -10.85 0.74
15 New York Knickerbockers 9.20 9.78 -0.58
16 Milwaukee Bucks -6.12 -4.98 -1.14
17 Sacramento Kings 2.46 4.04 -1.58
18 Phoenix Suns 4.82 6.71 -1.88
19 Indiana Pacers 1.78 3.77 -1.99
20 Los Angeles Clippers -0.54 1.64 -2.18
21 Detroit Pistons 0.87 3.28 -2.41
22 Utah Jazz -2.99 -0.29 -2.70
23 New Orleans Hornets -2.96 -0.03 -2.94
24 Atlanta Hawks -5.50 -0.23 -5.27
25 Cleveland Cavaliers -4.91 0.91 -5.83
26 Washington Wizards 2.17 8.41 -6.24
27 Charlotte Bobcats -6.26 0.47 -6.72
28 Toronto Raptors -1.64 5.97 -7.61
29 New Jersey Nets -6.10 4.07 -10.17
30 Minnesota Timberwolves 1.01 11.85 -10.84

Last 45 days

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 6.61 -3.23 9.84
2 Chicago Bulls -1.19 -9.51 8.32
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.42 -1.80 7.21
4 Los Angeles Lakers -0.89 -7.50 6.61
5 Dallas Mavericks 1.73 -4.70 6.43
6 Miami Heat 2.19 -3.64 5.84
7 Houston Rockets 5.40 0.24 5.16
8 Portland Trail Blazers -3.24 -7.52 4.28
9 Orlando Magic -2.55 -6.77 4.22
10 San Antonio Spurs 5.34 1.35 3.99
11 Memphis Grizzlies -0.72 -4.64 3.92
12 Boston Celtics -7.56 -8.96 1.39
13 Golden State Warriors 6.21 5.57 0.64
14 New York Knickerbockers 8.77 8.30 0.47
15 Philadelphia 76ers 0.27 0.26 0.00
16 Los Angeles Clippers 0.04 0.99 -0.95
17 Phoenix Suns 5.94 7.06 -1.13
18 Milwaukee Bucks -7.83 -6.60 -1.23
19 New Orleans Hornets -4.43 -2.93 -1.50
20 Sacramento Kings 3.94 6.30 -2.36
21 Indiana Pacers -0.19 3.44 -3.63
22 Atlanta Hawks -6.26 -2.50 -3.76
23 Utah Jazz -0.12 3.69 -3.81
24 Detroit Pistons 1.20 5.01 -3.82
25 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.61 7.06 -6.45
26 Charlotte Bobcats -7.44 -0.20 -7.24
27 Cleveland Cavaliers -6.22 1.30 -7.53
28 New Jersey Nets -3.36 4.32 -7.68
29 Toronto Raptors -0.55 7.29 -7.84
30 Washington Wizards -1.09 8.30 -9.39

Whole season

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Miami Heat 2.48 -4.28 6.76
2 Chicago Bulls -1.08 -7.61 6.53
3 Los Angeles Lakers 1.51 -4.50 6.01
4 San Antonio Spurs 3.89 -1.97 5.86
5 Orlando Magic -0.33 -5.26 4.92
6 Boston Celtics -3.33 -8.15 4.83
7 Denver Nuggets 7.70 2.90 4.81
8 Dallas Mavericks 0.36 -4.05 4.41
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.03 1.22 3.81
10 Memphis Grizzlies 0.14 -2.41 2.55
11 Houston Rockets 6.27 3.90 2.37
12 Portland Trail Blazers -3.68 -5.53 1.85
13 New Orleans Hornets -4.96 -6.24 1.28
14 Philadelphia 76ers -0.51 -1.52 1.01
15 New York Knickerbockers 7.52 7.04 0.48
16 Phoenix Suns 5.64 6.10 -0.46
17 Milwaukee Bucks -7.80 -6.78 -1.01
18 Atlanta Hawks -4.52 -3.42 -1.10
19 Indiana Pacers 0.56 1.93 -1.37
20 Utah Jazz -0.19 1.25 -1.44
21 Golden State Warriors 3.81 5.81 -2.00
22 Los Angeles Clippers -1.23 1.48 -2.71
23 Detroit Pistons -2.19 1.59 -3.78
24 Charlotte Bobcats -6.06 -1.98 -4.08
25 Sacramento Kings -0.22 4.58 -4.80
26 Minnesota Timberwolves 1.65 7.62 -5.97
27 Toronto Raptors 0.06 6.34 -6.28
28 New Jersey Nets -5.12 1.16 -6.28
29 Washington Wizards -1.71 5.58 -7.30
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.69 5.19 -8.88

Team 15 30 45 whole season
Atlanta Hawks -7.05384 -5.27097 -3.76411 -1.096562531
Boston Celtics 3.615803 0.742613 1.392797 4.825169656
Charlotte Bobcats -5.35401 -6.72392 -7.23904 -4.077861962
Chicago Bulls 6.867127 7.233879 8.318272 6.532005287
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.066262 -5.82712 -7.52503 -8.877621216
Dallas Mavericks 3.689128 7.139653 6.429809 4.407579902
Denver Nuggets 7.742269 8.673687 9.843389 4.805480395
Detroit Pistons -0.49115 -2.41299 -3.81827 -3.781584926
Golden State Warriors 4.09511 2.683985 0.641084 -2.003972344
Houston Rockets -2.12677 4.380636 5.160378 2.373791679
Indiana Pacers -0.37607 -1.99409 -3.63363 -1.374699687
Los Angeles Clippers -1.43606 -2.17702 -0.94891 -2.714489024
Los Angeles Lakers 4.280377 4.407166 6.605525 6.008155149
Memphis Grizzlies 1.85022 4.835622 3.919905 2.54548234
Miami Heat 9.734905 6.148593 5.83661 6.756025086
Milwaukee Bucks 4.714192 -1.14085 -1.23335 -1.014764878
Minnesota Timberwolves -14.0272 -10.8415 -6.45288 -5.968896372
New Jersey Nets -9.36306 -10.1691 -7.6822 -6.281048644
New Orleans Hornets -7.65119 -2.93672 -1.50377 1.278859412
New York Knickerbockers 2.994693 -0.58358 0.466013 0.48283656
Oklahoma City Thunder 8.507566 6.643336 7.214468 3.811915499
Orlando Magic 3.994252 3.824944 4.217785 4.924495264
Philadelphia 76ers -2.46251 1.172033 0.004973 1.005481412
Phoenix Suns -5.46118 -1.88475 -1.12661 -0.458243273
Portland Trail Blazers 0.692959 6.888179 4.280275 1.845327344
Sacramento Kings -2.779 -1.57931 -2.35674 -4.802874153
San Antonio Spurs 2.712156 5.314046 3.987955 5.863334834
Toronto Raptors -4.02695 -7.60758 -7.83668 -6.275295633
Utah Jazz -1.31704 -2.70291 -3.80821 -1.441445493
Washington Wizards -1.63101 -6.23596 -9.38981 -7.296573364

 

3 Comments »

  1. Wayne – in the spirit of weighting, I wonder if these ratings would look different if we only looked at performance vs. top-x teams (x=16? x=10?) And if such an exercise is a better predictor for the postseason…

    Comment by ElGee — April 14, 2011 @ 1:40 pm

  2. Wayne,

    Here’s another idea.

    How about calculating the numbers from the trade deadline forward because that’s when a lot of teams made major changes to their personnel? That would be a less arbitrary date than 15 days, 45 days etc… while remaining current.

    Comment by Italian Stallion — April 14, 2011 @ 2:39 pm

  3. Great idea . I will do it.

    Comment by wwinston — April 15, 2011 @ 8:59 am

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