April 3, 2011

Thoughts on Derrick Rose and the Bulls

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:51 pm

It looks like Derrick Rose will win MVP. I love his game , his desire, and his team first ethic , he should not be MVP. Let’s look at how the Bulls play (per 48 minutes , adjusted for strength of opponent) with various players on the court.

  • Rose in 8 points better than average.
  • Rose out 1 point better than average.


So the Bulls are a decent team without Rose in so he must have good teammates. Our Adjusted +/- numbers show Rose’s best teammates are Deng, Asik and Korver. To see why look at the following numbers.

  • Rose in with Deng out the Bulls play 2 points worse than average.
  • Deng in without Rose Bulls are 3 points better than average.

If this does not convince you that Deng is a good player, I do not know what will.

Here are some more numbers

  • Rose and Deng in with Korver and Asik both out Bulls are 4 points better than average
  • Rose and Deng in with at least one of Korver and  Asik in Bulls are 17 points better than average.

This ought to convince you that Asik and Korver are also pretty good.

So Rose has some pretty good teammates and I am afraid he is not the MVP.

I will try and analyze other candidates later this week but I have 4 sections of spreadsheet modeling to teach!


  1. wayne,

    you spelled derrick’s name wrong

    Comment by mutalu — April 3, 2011 @ 11:27 pm

  2. Not arguing against your assessment but how come Deng (and the Bulls) weren’t this good without Derrick Rose in the past? The past Bulls teams with Deng (like the Hinrich/Gordon/Ben Wallace squads) didn’t even get near the Win total they’ll get this year…

    Comment by Ray — April 4, 2011 @ 3:17 am

  3. Thanks. Dumb of me

    Comment by wwinston — April 4, 2011 @ 6:05 am

  4. Cause Rose is muvch better. His Adjusted +/- used to be 0. Now it is +8.

    Comment by wwinston — April 4, 2011 @ 7:35 am

  5. Wayne,
    Any chance on getting updated team rankings for this week?


    Comment by john — April 4, 2011 @ 11:03 am

  6. wayne, who in your opinion should it be?

    I agree it shouldn’t be rose (even before the chaos train that was hollingers espn article), and have thought it was Howard. Howard’s supporting cast is MUCH worse, and he does so much more on the defensive end that people tend to ignore. Derrick Rose is winning with his team (and his REALLY good bench, that people don’t take into account because they aren’t household names yet), while Dwight Howard wins despite his team.

    Comment by garron — April 6, 2011 @ 5:54 am

  7. Using this logic, Michael Jordan would never have been the MVP either. To be the MVP you have to be the best player on the worst team?

    Comment by Kent — April 8, 2011 @ 10:03 am

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