March 13, 2011

NCAA Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:19 pm

Using the well-respected Sagarin ratings, here are the odds for the tournament. The given numbers are the chances that each team wins each possible number of games (I do not count a play-in win as a win here). So for Ohio State, for example, they have a 24.3 chance of winning the championship, a 12.2% chance of losing in the finals, a 15.96% chance of losing in the national semis, a 15.2% chance of losing in the regional final, a 16.9%  chance of losing in the regional semifinal, a 15.12% chance of losing in the second round, and a .28% chance of losing in the first round.

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Ohio State 0.0028 0.1512 0.169 0.152 0.1596 0.1224 0.243
Kansas 0.013 0.1954 0.19 0.1864 0.1264 0.1184 0.1704
Duke 0.0188 0.1722 0.2762 0.2054 0.1596 0.0746 0.0932
Pitt 0.0244 0.1906 0.2558 0.195 0.1616 0.085 0.0876
SDSU 0.0476 0.2082 0.2444 0.2314 0.1424 0.0622 0.0638
BYU 0.0852 0.2594 0.2164 0.1898 0.1284 0.0676 0.0532
Notre Dame 0.0608 0.2432 0.2986 0.2202 0.0834 0.0562 0.0376
Syracuse 0.0826 0.2766 0.2524 0.2374 0.0804 0.036 0.0346
Purdue 0.0654 0.3198 0.2644 0.1922 0.0752 0.0484 0.0346
Tex 0.1834 0.232 0.2948 0.1376 0.0874 0.0366 0.0282
UNC 0.1186 0.2724 0.278 0.2096 0.0698 0.0286 0.023
Conn 0.1396 0.354 0.2762 0.134 0.0568 0.0212 0.0182
Louisville 0.1018 0.2936 0.386 0.1102 0.0572 0.0332 0.018
Wisconsin 0.312 0.2544 0.2238 0.1004 0.062 0.0298 0.0176
Kentucky 0.1868 0.311 0.3466 0.0792 0.0456 0.0168 0.014
Florida 0.0774 0.299 0.334 0.171 0.0764 0.0298 0.0124
Cinn 0.4014 0.3058 0.1716 0.067 0.0352 0.0132 0.0058
Georgetown 0.236 0.4376 0.1786 0.095 0.0294 0.0176 0.0058
West Va 0.3406 0.3382 0.24 0.043 0.0234 0.0098 0.005
Ut. St. 0.4534 0.3022 0.1586 0.0474 0.0262 0.0084 0.0038
Ariz 0.2772 0.4322 0.1966 0.06 0.0242 0.0064 0.0034
St. John’s 0.4144 0.3714 0.104 0.0678 0.0322 0.007 0.0032
UNLV 0.4356 0.437 0.065 0.0388 0.0158 0.0054 0.0024
Wash 0.3718 0.3742 0.1558 0.0764 0.0154 0.0042 0.0022
Mich. St. 0.438 0.3446 0.1436 0.054 0.014 0.0038 0.002
Kans. St. 0.5466 0.2672 0.1228 0.0392 0.0176 0.0048 0.0018
Marquette 0.4748 0.3404 0.1048 0.0622 0.0116 0.0046 0.0016
Missouri 0.5986 0.229 0.1116 0.0404 0.0156 0.0032 0.0016
Richmond 0.5438 0.2968 0.128 0.0238 0.005 0.0012 0.0014
Temple 0.4376 0.4122 0.0954 0.0378 0.0124 0.0034 0.0012
Vandy 0.4562 0.327 0.1656 0.0338 0.0124 0.0038 0.0012
Mich 0.4274 0.4574 0.0756 0.027 0.0098 0.0018 0.001
Villanova 0.4682 0.447 0.0494 0.0232 0.0088 0.0026 0.0008
Tex. A and M 0.4424 0.3812 0.1154 0.0424 0.0134 0.0044 0.0008
ILL 0.5644 0.3554 0.0476 0.0206 0.0078 0.0036 0.0006
Flo. St. 0.5576 0.3262 0.085 0.0242 0.0054 0.001 0.0006
Old Dominion 0.4506 0.423 0.0802 0.029 0.013 0.0036 0.0006
Clemson 0.7956 0.1276 0.0654 0.0072 0.0032 0.0004 0.0006
George Mason 0.5318 0.399 0.0396 0.0206 0.0066 0.002 0.0004
Xavier 0.5252 0.3146 0.0964 0.0488 0.012 0.0026 0.0004
Tenn 0.5726 0.3536 0.0524 0.016 0.004 0.001 0.0004
Butler 0.5494 0.3644 0.0586 0.0212 0.004 0.002 0.0004
Bellarmine 0.688 0.1762 0.098 0.0242 0.0104 0.0028 0.0004
UCLA 0.562 0.293 0.1064 0.0278 0.0092 0.0012 0.0004
Oak 0.8166 0.114 0.058 0.0082 0.0024 0.0006 0.0002
Penn State 0.5624 0.3424 0.066 0.0222 0.0054 0.0014 0.0002
Gonzaga 0.5856 0.3034 0.066 0.0296 0.0124 0.0028 0.0002
VCU 0.9086 0.0762 0.012 0.0022 0.0002 0.0006 0.0002
Princeton 0.8132 0.1312 0.05 0.0046 0.001 0 0
IND St 0.9174 0.0684 0.0124 0.0016 0.0002 0 0
Ga 0.6282 0.2604 0.0786 0.0276 0.0046 0.0006 0
Long Island 0.8814 0.093 0.0216 0.004 0 0 0
Hampton 0.9812 0.0168 0.002 0 0 0 0
Memp 0.7228 0.2218 0.0444 0.0092 0.0016 0.0002 0
Bucknell 0.8604 0.1112 0.0258 0.0024 0.0002 0 0
No. Col. 0.9524 0.0372 0.009 0.0014 0 0 0
BU 0.987 0.0122 0.0008 0 0 0 0
Morehead 0.8982 0.0826 0.017 0.0022 0 0 0
St. Peter’s 0.9346 0.0558 0.009 0.0006 0 0 0
Akron 0.9392 0.0494 0.011 0.0004 0 0 0
Wofford 0.9148 0.0658 0.0166 0.0026 0 0.0002 0
UCSB 0.9226 0.0634 0.013 0.0008 0.0002 0 0
Tex San An 0.9976 0.0024 0 0 0 0 0
Ala. St. 0.9996 0.0004 0 0 0 0 0
UAB 0.8638 0.092 0.04 0.0026 0.0008 0.0008 0
USC 0.8554 0.1106 0.026 0.007 0.0008 0.0002 0
Asheville 0.9804 0.0174 0.002 0.0002 0 0 0
Ark Little Rock 0.9952 0.0046 0.0002 0 0 0 0

 

If you want the chance of each team winning at least a given number of games, look below; Thus Ohio State has has a 52.5% chance of making the Final 4. I used the raw Sagarin ratings. So for example, the rating for BYU is based on the whole season, not just on their recent games.

Team >=1 >=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Ohio State 0.9972 0.846 0.677 0.525 0.3654 0.243
Kansas 0.987 0.7916 0.6016 0.4152 0.2888 0.1704
Duke 0.9812 0.809 0.5328 0.3274 0.1678 0.0932
Pitt 0.9756 0.785 0.5292 0.3342 0.1726 0.0876
SDSU 0.9524 0.7442 0.4998 0.2684 0.126 0.0638
BYU 0.9148 0.6554 0.439 0.2492 0.1208 0.0532
Notre Dame 0.9392 0.696 0.3974 0.1772 0.0938 0.0376
Syracuse 0.9174 0.6408 0.3884 0.151 0.0706 0.0346
Purdue 0.9346 0.6148 0.3504 0.1582 0.083 0.0346
Tex 0.8166 0.5846 0.2898 0.1522 0.0648 0.0282
UNC 0.8814 0.609 0.331 0.1214 0.0516 0.023
Conn 0.8604 0.5064 0.2302 0.0962 0.0394 0.0182
Louisville 0.8982 0.6046 0.2186 0.1084 0.0512 0.018
Wisconsin 0.688 0.4336 0.2098 0.1094 0.0474 0.0176
Kentucky 0.8132 0.5022 0.1556 0.0764 0.0308 0.014
Florida 0.9226 0.6236 0.2896 0.1186 0.0422 0.0124
Cinn 0.5986 0.2928 0.1212 0.0542 0.019 0.0058
Georgetown 0.764 0.3264 0.1478 0.0528 0.0234 0.0058
West Va 0.6594 0.3212 0.0812 0.0382 0.0148 0.005
Ut. St. 0.5466 0.2444 0.0858 0.0384 0.0122 0.0038
Ariz 0.7228 0.2906 0.094 0.034 0.0098 0.0034
St. John’s 0.5856 0.2142 0.1102 0.0424 0.0102 0.0032
UNLV 0.5644 0.1274 0.0624 0.0236 0.0078 0.0024
Wash 0.6282 0.254 0.0982 0.0218 0.0064 0.0022
Mich. St. 0.562 0.2174 0.0738 0.0198 0.0058 0.002
Kans. St. 0.4534 0.1862 0.0634 0.0242 0.0066 0.0018
Marquette 0.5252 0.1848 0.08 0.0178 0.0062 0.0016
Missouri 0.4014 0.1724 0.0608 0.0204 0.0048 0.0016
Richmond 0.4562 0.1594 0.0314 0.0076 0.0026 0.0014
Temple 0.5624 0.1502 0.0548 0.017 0.0046 0.0012
Vandy 0.5438 0.2168 0.0512 0.0174 0.005 0.0012
Mich 0.5726 0.1152 0.0396 0.0126 0.0028 0.001
Villanova 0.5318 0.0848 0.0354 0.0122 0.0034 0.0008
Tex. A and M 0.5576 0.1764 0.061 0.0186 0.0052 0.0008
ILL 0.4356 0.0802 0.0326 0.012 0.0042 0.0006
Flo. St. 0.4424 0.1162 0.0312 0.007 0.0016 0.0006
Old Dominion 0.5494 0.1264 0.0462 0.0172 0.0042 0.0006
Clemson 0.2044 0.0768 0.0114 0.0042 0.001 0.0006
George Mason 0.4682 0.0692 0.0296 0.009 0.0024 0.0004
Xavier 0.4748 0.1602 0.0638 0.015 0.003 0.0004
Tenn 0.4274 0.0738 0.0214 0.0054 0.0014 0.0004
Butler 0.4506 0.0862 0.0276 0.0064 0.0024 0.0004
Bellarmine 0.312 0.1358 0.0378 0.0136 0.0032 0.0004
UCLA 0.438 0.145 0.0386 0.0108 0.0016 0.0004
Oak 0.1834 0.0694 0.0114 0.0032 0.0008 0.0002
Penn State 0.4376 0.0952 0.0292 0.007 0.0016 0.0002
Gonzaga 0.4144 0.111 0.045 0.0154 0.003 0.0002
VCU 0.0914 0.0152 0.0032 0.001 0.0008 0.0002
Princeton 0.1868 0.0556 0.0056 0.001 0 0
IND St 0.0826 0.0142 0.0018 0.0002 0 0
Ga 0.3718 0.1114 0.0328 0.0052 0.0006 0
Long Island 0.1186 0.0256 0.004 0 0 0
Hampton 0.0188 0.002 0 0 0 0
Memp 0.2772 0.0554 0.011 0.0018 0.0002 0
Bucknell 0.1396 0.0284 0.0026 0.0002 0 0
No. Col. 0.0476 0.0104 0.0014 0 0 0
BU 0.013 0.0008 0 0 0 0
Morehead 0.1018 0.0192 0.0022 0 0 0
St. Peter’s 0.0654 0.0096 0.0006 0 0 0
Akron 0.0608 0.0114 0.0004 0 0 0
Wofford 0.0852 0.0194 0.0028 0.0002 0.0002 0
UCSB 0.0774 0.014 0.001 0.0002 0 0
Tex San An 0.0024 0 0 0 0 0
Ala. St. 0.0004 0 0 0 0 0
UAB 0.1362 0.0442 0.0042 0.0016 0.0008 0
USC 0.1446 0.034 0.008 0.001 0.0002 0
Asheville 0.0196 0.0022 0.0002 0 0 0
Ark Little Rock 0.0048 0.0002 0 0 0 0

3 Comments »

  1. Hey Wayne – I love getting this stuff from you at this time of year!

    That said, I didn’t see the Belmont Bruins in your data.
    Do you have a bias against the Atlantic Sun conference?!?!

    As a Wisconsin undergraduate, I am fearful of this veteran squad.

    Or is Bellarmine actually Belmont?

    Comment by Matt Callahan — March 14, 2011 @ 12:32 am

  2. Belmont is listed as Bellarmine. My son was admitted to Bellarmine so I was thinking about them

    Comment by wwinston — March 14, 2011 @ 7:55 am

  3. [...] a business school professor and author of Mathletics, published the results of his 2011 simulation here. Projected winner: Ohio [...]

    Pingback by Crashing the NCAA Model Party — March 15, 2011 @ 11:16 am

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