February 26, 2011

Thoughts on the Melo Drama and some other deals

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:53 pm

I think the Melo trade may  turn out well for both teams. Although I do not think Melo is a Top 10 player (more on this later), many other people in the league do. The trade gives the Knicks a great chance (if they can afford him) to get Chris Paul who is a Top 10 player.  Also the Knicks kept Landry Fields who is better than any of the guys they gave up. (+6 Points and +29 Impact!)

  Here are our Adjusted +/- and Impact ratings for the principals in the trade (for this season)

Player Points Impact
Melo 4 2
Billups 1 -8
Gallinari 1 -5
Mozgov -8 -18
Felton -7 -20
Chandler 4 3

Of course, Melo was distracted and can probably play better. But for last 3 years here are his numbers.

Season Points Offense defense Impact
07-08 -2 2 4 -6
08-09 7 8 1 21
09-10 3 3 0 2
10-11 4 5 1 3

Note he has never been a better than average defender. George Karl said as much this week. Felton has not played well this year but averaged a +2 Adjusted +/- the last 3 years. So the Nuggets got 3 solid players and a high potential guy (Mozgov) when they might have ended up with nothing. If Chris Paul does not come, I suspect the Knicks will be very disapointed. This is a true test for Adjusted +/- which deems Wade and James as superstars, but indicates that Amare and Melo are overrated by the public.

On the Celtics-OKC trade, I think OKC realized that Bynum-Gasol duo killed them last year and Perkins (if healthy0 can change that equation. Also Nate Robinson is an above average NBA guard (not just backup guard) and that is one oftheir weaknesses. Green killed OKC in playoffs last year and with Green and Kristic out and Westbrook and KD in OKC is 10 points better than average this year. When Kristic and or Green is in with their two stars OKC is only 3 points better than average.

The Celtics did not really need Perkins if Shaq or O’Neal are healthy. but I think they will find Green is not as good as the box score stats indicate. Also without Daniels and Robinson who backs up Rondo and Allen in the playoffs?

 For Houston, Thabeet and Dragic have both played poorly this year with Adjusted +/- worse than -10, which is really bad. It looks like Houston is clearing cap room for the future, but you have to wonder for how long the Rockets get a free pass for going under .500.

Portland got a steal in Gerald Wallace. He was playing at near All-Star level till recently. Charlotte got nothing to help them. If Roy stays healthy, watch out for Blazers in the playoffs.


  1. On the Rockets-Suns trade, what are the numbers on Aaron Brooks?

    Comment by Mike — February 26, 2011 @ 9:52 pm

  2. Brooks -6, Dragic -11, Thabeet -16, Battier +2, still a solid player

    Comment by wwinston — February 27, 2011 @ 12:23 am

  3. wayne,
    do you think green’s adjusted plus minus will be better with boston? i feel like his number was low in okc because he was playing a little out of position at power forward.

    Comment by mutalu — February 28, 2011 @ 1:50 am

  4. I become more convinced with each passing game that Melo is another one of those players that is very overrated because of things he can do on the court due to his natural talent, athletic ability, and skill vs. an objective analysis of how productive he’s actually being and how much he’s adding to team wins.

    Most fans, the media, and even many former players love spin moves, shots out of double teams, and fade away long 2s even if they were taken early in the shot clock or when someone else was wide open with a much higher percentage look. It boggles the rational somewhat informed mind.

    Comment by Italian Stallion — March 4, 2011 @ 1:39 pm

  5. Speaking of trades, what are your thoughts on the Suns’ trade with Orlando from mid season?

    They’ve played 33 games since the trade. In the first 16, there was no improvement to their net efficiency (offensive minus defensive efficiency). Since then, they’ve improved dramatically. Their net efficiency is around 6 pts per 100 possessions over that period. Gortat is likely a big part of the reason.

    Here are the raw +/- numbers for their two best lineups:

    Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Player 5 +/- Min +/- /Min
    G. Hill S. Nash V. Carter C. Frye M. Gortat +57 120:36 .472
    G. Hill S. Nash V. Carter C. Frye R. Lopez +42 317:04 .132

    The obvious question, after looking at these is, why are the Suns playing the more efficient lineup (with Gortat instead of Lopez) so much less?



    Comment by Daniel — March 5, 2011 @ 12:22 am

  6. I agree with all you say.

    Comment by wwinston — March 7, 2011 @ 11:00 am

  7. Suns have played well last 30 days (3 points better than average). You are right about lineups: 1st 1 has Adjusted +/- of +9 and 2nd one Adjusted +/- of 23 points per 48 minutes.

    Comment by wwinston — March 7, 2011 @ 11:05 am

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URL

Leave a comment

Powered by WordPress