February 1, 2011

Adjusted +/- All Stars

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 1:00 pm

Based on our Adjusted +/- ratings and Impact ratings here are our all-star teams. A points rating of say +21 means that after adjusting for the players a player has played with and against the player in our estimation has added 21 points more per 48 minutes than an average NBA player to his team’s performance level. A +10 offense rating  means that the player has added 10 points more per 48 minutes to his team’s scoring than an average NBA offensive player . A -10 defense rating means a player has decreased the opponent’scoring by 10 points per 48 minutes more than an average NBA defensive player.

Impact weights time segments more when the game is on the line.  Anything over +30 is pretty good and over +50 is amazing. Note that Derrick Rose is not that great on many advanced stats but he shines on Impact!!

So where is Dwight Howard. Dwight hasa mediocre Impact rating of +5 so I left him off.

   More importantly, where is Kobe? Kobe has a negative adjusted +/- this year, so he cannot make this all star team. Kobe’s defensive rating is +6. With Kobe on the court Laker opponents shoot 49% and with Kobe off the court Laker opponents only shoot 44%.  This is consistent with Kobe’s poor defensive rating.

Note: I originally listed only 11 West all stars and 13 East all stars. Next on my list would be David West (F, +8 points, +2 offense, -6 defense 29 Impact0 and Steph Curry (G, +8 points, +12 offense, +4 defense,17 Impact)

West
Player Position Points Offense Defense Impact
Nash G 21 16 -5 62
Millsap F 18 10 -8 37
Dirk F 17 10 -7 37
Chris Paul G 15 12 -3 50
KD F 14 18 4 36
Duncan F-C 13 -2 -15 47
Terry G 9 6 -3 41
Lowry G 9 5 -4 58
Deron Williams G 9 13 4 24
Pau Gasol C 7 5 -2 21
Griffin F 6 4 -2 20
           
East Position Points Offense Defense Impact
Lebron F 19 14 -5 49
KG F-C 14 0 -14 14
Rose G 13 11 -2 61
Amir Johnson F-C 12 2 -10 18
Jamaal Crawford G 12 11 -1 39
Landry Fields F 9 6 -3 33
Augustin G 8 11 3 35
Devin Harris G 8 9 1 48
Brook Lopez C 8 -2 -10 28
Bargnani C 8 6 -2 22
Bogut C 7 -6 -13 36
Wade G 5 14 9 45
Rondo G 5 6 1 35

33 Comments »

  1. Just wondering why there are 13 All Stars in the East and only 11 in the West.

    Comment by Bryce — February 1, 2011 @ 2:51 pm

  2. Great work Wayne! Another solid analysis. That’s why we love you!

    Comment by multipaul — February 1, 2011 @ 3:25 pm

  3. Thanks

    Comment by wwinston — February 1, 2011 @ 3:47 pm

  4. I added two to the West. Thanks. I guess the ice storm fried my brain.

    Comment by wwinston — February 1, 2011 @ 3:48 pm

  5. Does this mean Dwight Howard doesn’t get his DPOY award again?

    And are there any logical reasons why 2 Nets would make the team (besides +/-, of course)?

    Comment by Robert M — February 1, 2011 @ 4:24 pm

  6. Should have tiitled this “Stupid stat geek tricks”?

    Perhaps one day you’ll realize the folly of relying solely on statistics to make definitive judgments like this?

    Comment by JOHN HATHWELL — February 1, 2011 @ 4:30 pm

  7. So, what you’re saying is that Steve Nash is the MVP, i.e the player that has the most impact.

    Comment by iggy — February 1, 2011 @ 4:48 pm

  8. Based on this analysis, is Steve Nash the best player in the league so far this year?

    Also, how do you calculate the defensive rating? Do you look at the performance of players in the same position, or performance of the opposing team overall when the player that you are rating is on/off the court?

    Comment by Daniel — February 1, 2011 @ 4:49 pm

  9. hey wayne…take multipaul’s gratitude with a grain of salt. he scours the ‘net for articles that show his man (Bargnani) in any sort of positive light.

    Comment by yertu damkule — February 1, 2011 @ 4:59 pm

  10. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Eddy Chaltiel, N/A and LoveThoseKnicks, Haralabos Voulgaris. Haralabos Voulgaris said: Flaws in Adjusted +/- http://bit.ly/hj3dzf The Raptors have two "+/-" allstars, and yet have still managed to lose 12 straight. #doesntaddup [...]

    Pingback by Tweets that mention Adjusted +/- All Stars « mathletics -- Topsy.com — February 1, 2011 @ 5:13 pm

  11. I fail to see what the point of the article is, unless it’s to point out how flawed the system is. Just a quick look at “All-Star” list can tell you that.

    Comment by Tim W. — February 1, 2011 @ 5:45 pm

  12. +/- is an essentially flawed stat in a 5 0n 5 sport like Basketball. Not sure why people continue to bother with a method that produces Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson and Kyle Lowry as all-stars.

    Comment by JOHN HATHWELL — February 1, 2011 @ 6:12 pm

  13. Just using +/- may be very flawed, but adjusted +/- does not suffer from the same problems, because by using regression analysis you can control for the impact of teammates on the +/-. However, I would imagine that for a sample size as small as the first half of the regular season, there is a pretty high standard error, to the point where there may be some players on this list who have artificially high ratings, and should not be all-stars.

    Comment by Nate — February 1, 2011 @ 7:54 pm

  14. Griffin makes the West team with +6. On another site (basketballvalue), LaMarcus Aldridge has an adjusted +/- of +15. Are the differences between +/- systems really that big? Or do you have Griffin over Aldridge for another reason?

    Comment by teamdonkey — February 1, 2011 @ 8:15 pm

  15. John Hathwell… why do you think +/- is flawed? Seems to me, that of all the ways to measure a player’s contribution, +/- is the least biased, providing that garbage time stats are properly accounted for. If the method suggests that players like Lowry and Johnson should be all-stars, then the question to ask is why. And if the answer is that they genuinely help their teams win in a profound way, however aesthetically pleasing their individual game might be, then the method is surely sound.

    Comment by iggy — February 1, 2011 @ 9:08 pm

  16. We do adjusted +/- a slightly different way. We have Aldridge as average. You just cannot do a straight regression (like some other people do) and get things to work out well.

    Comment by wwinston — February 1, 2011 @ 11:45 pm

  17. The whole point of Adjusted +/- is to see how you help your teammates

    Comment by wwinston — February 1, 2011 @ 11:45 pm

  18. When Amir Johnson is in Raptors are 1 point worse than average. When he is out 11 points worse than average. When Amir and Bargnani are in and DeRozan is out Raptors are 13 points better than average. Do not blame Bargnani and Johnson for the Raptors poor record! Other guys are their problem.

    Comment by wwinston — February 1, 2011 @ 11:47 pm

  19. Defense is based on trying to predict points given up based on the ten players in the game.

    Comment by wwinston — February 1, 2011 @ 11:47 pm

  20. Lopez and Harris have played real well. When Lopez and Harris are in and Graham and Outlaw are both out Nets play 18 points better than average.

    Comment by wwinston — February 1, 2011 @ 11:49 pm

  21. With Lopez and Harris in and Outlaw and graham both out Nets play 18 points better than average.

    Comment by wwinston — February 1, 2011 @ 11:54 pm

  22. I would say Nash has been amazing. When Nash is in and Gortat is out Suns play 10 points better than average. When Nash is out Suns play a terrible 19 points worse than average. Overall when Nash is in Suns are an excellent 8 points better than average. Dragic cannot be so horrible to drag a bunch of good players down that far, so should you not conclude that the other players are that good (by NBA standards) and Nash is the one “bringing the team up?”

    Comment by wwinston — February 2, 2011 @ 12:12 am

  23. Howard has a -7 defensive rating which is good, but his Impact rating is only +5. Turkoglu with an Impact of +49 has driven most of the Magic’s recent success.

    Comment by wwinston — February 2, 2011 @ 12:14 am

  24. Wayne,

    Why you have two of the worst defensive players in the game, Bargnani and Crawford, on this list is beyond me. The fact that your analysis says they both have positive impacts on defense tells me that this system is incredibly flawed.

    Comment by Tim W. — February 2, 2011 @ 2:53 am

  25. Prof Winston, doesn’t your work here suggest that we need a new perspective to properly evaluate the relative “greatness” of players in the NBA? That a player’s contribution isn’t measured simply by raw stats, or flashy highlight plays. Instead, by showing how much better a team performs when that player is on the floor, how it can allow someone stuck on a bad team to be judged correctly. I’m curious how Nash’s season, for example, compares historically to others, such as KG’s stint in Minnesota, or even going all the way back to Bird & Magic.

    Comment by iggy — February 2, 2011 @ 5:06 am

  26. [...] also has a blog. Yesterday, he announced his 2010-11 NBA All-Star selections. These selections were based on Winston’s Adjusted +/- ratings and impact [...]

    Pingback by Wayne Winston: Derrick Rose has impact » By The Horns — February 2, 2011 @ 9:26 am

  27. This all misses the point: it’s called the “All-STAR Game” – it’s meant to show off the stars of the league. It’s not called the “Guys with Great +/- Game”.

    Comment by Arnold — February 2, 2011 @ 3:03 pm

  28. According to the numbers, Nash is not only an acceptable defensive player, but a *good* defensive player (-5 defensive rating), who’s significantly better than Rondo. That *can’t* be right.

    Comment by spanky — February 2, 2011 @ 4:37 pm

  29. Wayne, I’m puzzled why you seem to be deleting comments that are polite, but critical of your work. It’s obviously your right, but if you don’t want dissenting opinion, it’s probably best not to publish something for the world to see.

    Comment by Tim W. — February 2, 2011 @ 10:30 pm

  30. Actually, my apologies. Apparently your comment system is screwed up. There are posts showing now that weren’t before. Please delete this comment and my last one.

    Again, my apologies.

    Comment by Tim W. — February 2, 2011 @ 10:32 pm

  31. We only go back to 1999, but Nash is similar to KG at his peak.

    Comment by wwinston — February 3, 2011 @ 12:37 am

  32. these look similar to fantasy ratings. maybe we’re on to something after all. the media constantly takes jabs at Pau Gasol such as “Lakers are ok, despite weak/soft/wimpy Pau”. The reality is the Lakers would be average to below average without him. Kobe alone does not make it, especially in this arc of his career

    Comment by vanjulio — February 3, 2011 @ 2:11 pm

  33. [...] in a Feb. 1 post on who he would have selected for the All-Star Game, Indiana prof and former Mavericks stats guru Wayne Winston calculated Nash’s impact rating [...]

    Pingback by Steve Nash's impact on the Phoenix Suns, offensive lopsidedness and outlier MVP status — February 21, 2011 @ 2:28 pm

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