December 27, 2010

NBA Insights December 27

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:17 pm

Adjusted +/- ratings measure how many points better or worse than average per 48 minutes an NBA player performs after adjusting for the other 9 players on the court.  For example, a +10 rating means a player adds 10 points more than an an average player to his team’s performance Mining our Adjusted +/- data yields many interesting insights which are not obvious from PER of boxscore stats.

  1. Bibby +10 and Jamaal Crawford +9 have keyed the Hawks moderate success. Despite a great PER rating Horford has not had a great impact on their usccess.
  2. The Celtics great success has been a team effort. KG (+9) seems to be over his knee problems. Pierce +6, Rondo +4 ,Davis +2,  Ray Allen +2, and Robinson +1 have all chipped in.
  3. Don’t blame Larry Brown’s stepping down on Wallace +10 and Augustin +10. Both are having great seasons. Blame things on Stephen Jackson’s +14 defensive rating. This means that when Jackson is in (after adjusting for other 9 guys on court) Bobcats give up 14 more points per game.
  4. Derrick Rose is now a full fledged super star. He leads the league in our Impact rating (sort of adjusted +/- adjusted for importance of game situations) and has a +15 Adjusted +/-.  Korver +13 has also been great.
  5. Hickson -7 and Moon -7 have hurt the Cavs.
  6. Nene +7  of Denver is always an Adjusted +/- stud.
  7. For the woeful Pistons Stuckey +10 has been a bright spot. But Wallace  -8 and Daye -7 have hurt them.
  8. For G0lden State Wright -10 and Carney -15 have caused most of the recent slump.
  9. For Houston Luis Scola has carried over his great play from the Worlds with a +12 rating. Hayes -10, Hill -7, and Brooks -7 have hurt them.
  10. Blake Griffin seems (undeservedly, see below) a sure thing for ROY and is clearly the most exicting player to watch. His Adjusted +/- is only 0, however, and IU’s one and doner Eric Gordon (+6) has been the Clips best player this year.
  11. Why are the Lakers having trouble? Odom +10 and Gasol +12 are playing some of their best ball ever. The problem is Kobe’s defense: his +11 defensive rating is by far his worst ever. Amazingly the Lakers best lineup is Odom Gasol with the three subs: Brown, Blake and Barnes : +76 points in around 100 minutes.
  12. For Memphis Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo with +4 have been bright spots.
  13. For the Heat Chris Bosh has recieved little credit but his Adjusted +/- of +12 is great. Wade (-4) needs to step it up.
  14. For the Bucks Bogut +15 and Ilyasova +14 get no credit, but they are great players. Maggette -18 and Douglas-Roberts -21 really hurt them
  15. For the Wolves Brewer +8 and Johnson +5 get no “Love.” But Kevin Love, despite a mediocre Adjusted +/- has an excellent impact rating  of +23 (Impact ranges from +100 to -100).
  16. For the Nets Brook Lopez +13 has been great.
  17. For the Hornets CP3 (+13) is back in the conversation for best point guard. Jack (-11) has yet to fit in.
  18. This Amare for MVP conversation needs to stop. The Knicks MVP and ROY is Landry Fields. His Adjusted +/- of +16 and Impact of +48 are terrific. Amare has a +2 Adjusted +/-.
  19. For OKC KD +16 is still great. Westbrook, however is overrated. His +5 defensive rating indicates he is not a great defender.
  20. For the Magic Turkogolu has +29 Adjusted +/- so far. Certainly not reliable, but enough to indicate he has really fit in well so far.
  21. For the underrated 76ers Holiday +9 and Young +8 have played great. Doug Collins deserves a  lot of credit for reducing PT for Turner -12 and Nocioni -12.
  22. For the Suns Steve Nash +7 is still great.
  23. For the Blazers Andre Miller +7 is still vastly underrated.
  24. The”haplessness” of the hapless Kings is keyed by Cousins -11 and Landry -5.
  25. The Spurs great start has been keyed by Manu +12, Hill +11, Parker +6, and Duncan +6.
  26. For the Mavs Dirk +19 should be in the MVP conversation. Terry’s Impact rating of +42 is 9th in the league. But the key to the Mavs has been Tyson Chandler with a +8 Points rating, a vast upgrade over last year’s starter, Eric Dampier.
  27. For the Pacers Mike Dunleavy +6 has been a bright spot but hightly touted Darren Collison -10 has been a bust
  28. Amir Johnson +16 has been amazing for the Raptors.  Calderon -9, Weems -7and DeRozan -10 have really hurt the Raptors.
  29. For the Jazz DWilliams +15 is running neck  and neck with CP3 for 2nd best point guard (behind Rose). Miles +5, Watson +7 and Price +8  have been great. Rookie Gordon Hayward has done poorly -23.
  30. For the Wizards the injury hampered John Wall -10 has not lived up to expectations.

Hope these comments have made you see the insights that can be gleaned from an Adjusted +/- analysis.


  1. wow lmao this is useful!!! JK!!! its terrible and very misguided but agreed fields will most likely won mvp!!! don trip

    Comment by u r an idiot — December 27, 2010 @ 8:38 pm

  2. Great stuff. Also do love how you had to give some love to every team. Just one quick note, I think there was a typo since you have Rondo on twice (I’m sure one should be Ray), and was wondering out of curiosity what the rating for Big Baby Davis was

    Comment by garron — December 27, 2010 @ 9:42 pm

  3. Is Thad Young the most underrated player in the league over the last 4 years (since drafted)? I never hear his name, but year after year he is well into the Plus side. Also, who do you think would be on the “No D” all-star team? It seems like the undersized, bulky bruising pf’s who don’t block shots (jefferson, boozer) as a genre are overrated and do not play defense.

    Comment by Brian — December 27, 2010 @ 9:52 pm

  4. Thanks. I will fix typo

    Comment by wwinston — December 27, 2010 @ 10:41 pm

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  6. How do you account for the fact that starters play against the starters of the other team while the bench players play against the other teams bench players? For example, Amare is consistently going up against the opposing teams best big men, while Landry often plays against the bench squad.

    Comment by Curious — December 28, 2010 @ 10:58 pm

  7. Wayne, are you going to continue to post your power rankings?
    Thank you

    Comment by avatars — December 29, 2010 @ 3:02 am

  8. yes

    Comment by wwinston — December 29, 2010 @ 8:29 am

  9. That is what adjusted +/- is about. If you play against a lineup 10 points worse than average per 48 you must beat them by 10 points pewr 48 to come out average

    Comment by wwinston — December 29, 2010 @ 8:30 am

  10. not sure one game is proof enough, but last night’s dallas lose to raptors confirmed Dirk’s value..:)

    Comment by avatars — December 29, 2010 @ 10:46 am

  11. Dirk’s rating stayed same after combo of OKC win and Toronto loss. His +19 leads the NBA>

    Comment by wwinston — December 29, 2010 @ 3:51 pm

  12. How is Raymond Felton doing on your ratings?

    Comment by Italian Stallion — December 29, 2010 @ 6:35 pm

  13. Not well. Around -10. Landry is really the key.

    Comment by wwinston — December 30, 2010 @ 10:58 am

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