March 20, 2017

Sweet 16 Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:14 pm
Team 3 4 5 6 Team >=3 >=4 >=5 Champion
Gonzaga 14.62% 14.20% 11.08% 16.30% Gonzaga 56.20% 41.58% 27.38% 16.30%
UNC 31.56% 16.62% 10.48% 13.56% UNC 72.22% 40.66% 24.04% 13.56%
UK 27.54% 13.80% 9.04% 10.58% UK 60.96% 33.42% 19.62% 10.58%
WVU 12.92% 12.08% 8.28% 10.52% WVU 43.80% 30.88% 18.80% 10.52%
Kansas 22.08% 17.68% 9.00% 10.04% Kansas 58.80% 36.72% 19.04% 10.04%
Florida 21.66% 19.52% 9.06% 9.90% Florida 60.14% 38.48% 18.96% 9.90%
Baylor 35.26% 18.22% 7.30% 5.38% Baylor 66.16% 30.90% 12.68% 5.38%
Oregon 32.76% 14.20% 5.82% 4.74% Oregon 57.52% 24.76% 10.56% 4.74%
Purdue 18.40% 12.92% 5.80% 4.08% Purdue 41.20% 22.80% 9.88% 4.08%
Arizona 44.74% 11.00% 5.62% 3.78% Arizona 65.14% 20.40% 9.40% 3.78%
UCLA 22.50% 8.48% 4.46% 3.60% UCLA 39.04% 16.54% 8.06% 3.60%
Wisconsin 19.02% 12.82% 4.62% 3.40% Wisconsin 39.86% 20.84% 8.02% 3.40%
Michigan 26.76% 10.16% 3.72% 1.84% Michigan 42.48% 15.72% 5.56% 1.84%
Butler 18.40% 6.14% 2.04% 1.20% Butler 27.78% 9.38% 3.24% 1.20%
South Car 24.06% 7.38% 1.72% 0.68% South Car 33.84% 9.78% 2.40% 0.68%
Xavier 27.72% 4.78% 1.96% 0.40% Xavier 34.86% 7.14% 2.36% 0.40%

March 17, 2017

March 17 NBA Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 2:28 pm

These ratings are just based on the  last month. You can see things are a lot different than whole season. Lakers tanking shows up well! Cavs and Warriors have played poorly.

Rank Team Off Def Rating Off Rank Def Rank
1 Houston Rockets 17.11 5.45 11.66 1 26
2 Minnesota Timberwolves 2.62 -6.16 8.78 7 5
3 San Antonio Spurs 0.20 -7.76 7.96 11 3
4 Miami Heat 2.74 -4.33 7.08 6 8
5 Utah Jazz -5.21 -10.11 4.90 25 1
6 New Orleans Pelicans 0.00 -3.61 3.61 12 9
7 Milwaukee Bucks -1.20 -4.37 3.17 19 7
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 6.79 3.63 3.16 3 24
9 Golden State Warriors 2.40 -0.34 2.74 8 13
10 Dallas Mavericks -6.75 -9.37 2.62 28 2
11 Washington Wizards 10.61 8.57 2.04 2 28
12 Los Angeles Clippers 0.48 -1.38 1.87 10 11
13 Portland Trail Blazers 5.06 3.37 1.69 5 21
14 Phoenix Suns 5.61 4.24 1.37 4 25
15 Indiana Pacers -5.45 -5.96 0.51 27 6
16 Charlotte Hornets -0.18 -0.35 0.17 16 12
17 Atlanta Hawks -0.13 0.20 -0.33 15 18
18 Toronto Raptors -7.39 -6.79 -0.60 29 4
19 Detroit Pistons -0.92 0.18 -1.10 18 17
20 Cleveland Cavaliers 0.00 1.16 -1.16 14 20
21 Boston Celtics -1.76 -0.01 -1.74 21 14
22 Memphis Grizzlies -3.21 0.12 -3.34 23 16
23 Denver Nuggets 0.00 3.61 -3.61 13 23
24 Sacramento Kings -3.01 0.84 -3.85 22 19
25 Orlando Magic -5.26 0.00 -5.26 26 15
26 Chicago Bulls -8.48 -1.58 -6.90 30 10
27 Philadelphia 76ers -0.21 6.88 -7.09 17 27
28 New York Knicks -4.39 3.44 -7.83 24 22
29 Brooklyn Nets 1.35 9.45 -8.10 9 29
30 Los Angeles Lakers -1.43 11.00 -12.42 20 30

March 13, 2017

NCAA Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 4:21 pm

Based on the trusted Sagarin ratings here are the chances of each team winning n games. I don’t count the stupid play in round!! SO Gionaga has a 15.86% chance of winning tourney. At 10-1 a good bet!

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Gonzaga 1.16% 12.76% 31.76% 13.36% 15.78% 9.32% 15.86%
UNC 0.62% 18.20% 22.40% 23.38% 13.74% 9.84% 11.82%
Villanova 0.46% 26.50% 27.32% 16.50% 12.28% 6.98% 9.96%
UK 1.84% 34.90% 21.52% 17.90% 9.68% 6.76% 7.40%
WVU 5.26% 25.48% 35.62% 10.68% 10.24% 5.58% 7.14%
Kansas 7.76% 20.80% 26.74% 20.02% 11.78% 6.46% 6.44%
Louisville 1.34% 33.00% 26.58% 16.56% 10.92% 5.54% 6.06%
Duke 2.14% 23.52% 29.98% 23.26% 10.62% 4.92% 5.56%
Oregon 4.10% 31.78% 31.12% 14.52% 9.42% 5.00% 4.06%
Baylor 8.12% 34.96% 27.88% 15.92% 7.30% 3.06% 2.76%
Florida 10.24% 41.32% 26.70% 10.08% 6.26% 2.94% 2.46%
UVA 12.88% 39.40% 26.24% 9.88% 6.14% 3.02% 2.44%
Purdue 12.58% 32.74% 27.48% 13.70% 7.50% 3.64% 2.36%
UCLA 4.80% 37.22% 34.30% 13.36% 5.30% 2.88% 2.14%
Wichita St. 24.16% 43.92% 13.96% 9.02% 4.48% 2.40% 2.06%
Butler 6.56% 25.52% 40.78% 15.68% 6.42% 3.28% 1.76%
FSU 7.32% 29.20% 29.54% 22.06% 7.24% 2.90% 1.74%
Arizona 4.22% 38.10% 24.58% 21.94% 6.82% 2.62% 1.72%
SMU 31.88% 36.12% 17.22% 9.38% 3.32% 1.18% 0.90%
Wisconsin 27.16% 49.84% 13.26% 4.80% 3.10% 1.04% 0.80%
St. Mary’s 33.00% 35.26% 14.98% 11.92% 3.04% 1.08% 0.72%
Iowa St. 26.86% 38.54% 18.58% 9.48% 4.16% 1.68% 0.70%
Cinn 26.08% 39.10% 21.04% 7.92% 3.62% 1.56% 0.68%
ND 19.84% 53.08% 18.64% 4.22% 2.48% 1.18% 0.56%
Creighton 30.64% 41.52% 16.54% 6.42% 3.30% 1.14% 0.44%
Michigan 49.16% 32.86% 10.02% 4.90% 1.96% 0.78% 0.32%
Okla. St. 50.84% 32.82% 9.58% 4.08% 1.74% 0.62% 0.32%
Xavier 45.54% 34.16% 13.02% 5.70% 1.18% 0.26% 0.14%
Miami 44.24% 39.44% 9.98% 4.22% 1.64% 0.34% 0.14%
Minn 37.38% 40.72% 16.88% 3.78% 0.82% 0.30% 0.12%
South Car 50.40% 36.96% 8.16% 3.56% 0.62% 0.22% 0.08%
Arkansas 45.10% 43.78% 6.50% 3.26% 1.00% 0.30% 0.06%
Mich St. 55.76% 34.20% 6.74% 2.58% 0.56% 0.12% 0.04%
MTSU 62.62% 28.30% 7.48% 1.34% 0.16% 0.06% 0.04%
Marquette 49.60% 37.50% 8.52% 3.38% 0.86% 0.12% 0.02%
Northwestern 48.80% 44.14% 5.26% 1.16% 0.44% 0.18% 0.02%
Vandy 51.20% 42.10% 5.30% 1.06% 0.30% 0.02% 0.02%
Maryland 54.46% 30.74% 10.06% 4.04% 0.54% 0.14% 0.02%
VCU 67.00% 22.64% 6.44% 3.22% 0.56% 0.12% 0.02%
Nevada 73.14% 19.30% 5.96% 1.22% 0.36% 0.00% 0.02%
Seton Hall 54.90% 37.46% 4.84% 2.08% 0.56% 0.14% 0.02%
DAYTON 75.84% 19.46% 3.18% 1.16% 0.28% 0.06% 0.02%
K. State 84.00% 10.88% 3.64% 1.10% 0.30% 0.06% 0.02%
Wake Forest 84.12% 11.14% 3.42% 1.04% 0.24% 0.02% 0.02%
Va Tech 72.84% 23.22% 3.00% 0.64% 0.24% 0.06% 0.00%
Wilmington 87.12% 10.56% 2.04% 0.20% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
ETSU 89.76% 8.72% 1.42% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New Mex. St. 91.88% 6.90% 1.06% 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Troy 97.86% 2.02% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
S. Dak. St. 98.84% 1.00% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Princeton 80.16% 17.16% 2.38% 0.28% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Bucknell 94.74% 4.28% 0.90% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FGCU 92.68% 5.90% 1.20% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
N. Dakota 95.78% 4.00% 0.18% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Vermont 87.42% 9.42% 2.66% 0.48% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
URI 69.36% 23.08% 5.68% 1.48% 0.34% 0.06% 0.00%
Iona 95.90% 3.62% 0.46% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Jacksonville 98.66% 1.32% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Texas Southern 99.38% 0.56% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Winthrop 93.44% 5.46% 1.08% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kent St. 95.20% 4.40% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
N. Kent. 98.16% 1.72% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Mt. St. Mary’s 99.78% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NO 99.76% 0.22% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NC Central 92.46% 5.36% 1.84% 0.32% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
UC Davis 99.78% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Providence 89.18% 8.14% 2.14% 0.46% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
USC 84.74% 11.14% 3.34% 0.62% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%

 

Chnace of winning >=n games is given below. SO the Zags have 41% chance of making final 4.

Team >=1 >=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Gonzaga 98.84% 86.08% 54.32% 40.96% 25.18% 15.86%
UNC 99.38% 81.18% 58.78% 35.40% 21.66% 11.82%
Villanova 99.54% 73.04% 45.72% 29.22% 16.94% 9.96%
UK 98.16% 63.26% 41.74% 23.84% 14.16% 7.40%
WVU 94.74% 69.26% 33.64% 22.96% 12.72% 7.14%
Kansas 92.24% 71.44% 44.70% 24.68% 12.90% 6.44%
Louisville 98.66% 65.66% 39.08% 22.52% 11.60% 6.06%
Duke 97.86% 74.34% 44.36% 21.10% 10.48% 5.56%
Oregon 95.90% 64.12% 33.00% 18.48% 9.06% 4.06%
Baylor 91.88% 56.92% 29.04% 13.12% 5.82% 2.76%
Florida 89.76% 48.44% 21.74% 11.66% 5.40% 2.46%
UVA 87.12% 47.72% 21.48% 11.60% 5.46% 2.44%
Purdue 87.42% 54.68% 27.20% 13.50% 6.00% 2.36%
UCLA 95.20% 57.98% 23.68% 10.32% 5.02% 2.14%
Wichita St. 75.84% 31.92% 17.96% 8.94% 4.46% 2.06%
Butler 93.44% 67.92% 27.14% 11.46% 5.04% 1.76%
FSU 92.68% 63.48% 33.94% 11.88% 4.64% 1.74%
Arizona 95.78% 57.68% 33.10% 11.16% 4.34% 1.72%
SMU 68.12% 32.00% 14.78% 5.40% 2.08% 0.90%
Wisconsin 72.84% 23.00% 9.74% 4.94% 1.84% 0.80%
St. Mary’s 67.00% 31.74% 16.76% 4.84% 1.80% 0.72%
Iowa St. 73.14% 34.60% 16.02% 6.54% 2.38% 0.70%
Cinn 73.92% 34.82% 13.78% 5.86% 2.24% 0.68%
ND 80.16% 27.08% 8.44% 4.22% 1.74% 0.56%
Creighton 69.36% 27.84% 11.30% 4.88% 1.58% 0.44%
Michigan 50.84% 17.98% 7.96% 3.06% 1.10% 0.32%
Okla. St. 49.16% 16.34% 6.76% 2.68% 0.94% 0.32%
Xavier 54.46% 20.30% 7.28% 1.58% 0.40% 0.14%
Miami 55.76% 16.32% 6.34% 2.12% 0.48% 0.14%
Minn 62.62% 21.90% 5.02% 1.24% 0.42% 0.12%
South Car 49.60% 12.64% 4.48% 0.92% 0.30% 0.08%
Arkansas 54.90% 11.12% 4.62% 1.36% 0.36% 0.06%
Mich St. 44.24% 10.04% 3.30% 0.72% 0.16% 0.04%
MTSU 37.38% 9.08% 1.60% 0.26% 0.10% 0.04%
Marquette 50.40% 12.90% 4.38% 1.00% 0.14% 0.02%
Northwestern 51.20% 7.06% 1.80% 0.64% 0.20% 0.02%
Vandy 48.80% 6.70% 1.40% 0.34% 0.04% 0.02%
Maryland 45.54% 14.80% 4.74% 0.70% 0.16% 0.02%
VCU 33.00% 10.36% 3.92% 0.70% 0.14% 0.02%
Nevada 26.86% 7.56% 1.60% 0.38% 0.02% 0.02%
Seton Hall 45.10% 7.64% 2.80% 0.72% 0.16% 0.02%
DAYTON 24.16% 4.70% 1.52% 0.36% 0.08% 0.02%
K. State 16.00% 5.12% 1.48% 0.38% 0.08% 0.02%
Wake Forest 15.88% 4.74% 1.32% 0.28% 0.04% 0.02%
Va Tech 27.16% 3.94% 0.94% 0.30% 0.06% 0.00%
Wilmington 12.88% 2.32% 0.28% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
ETSU 10.24% 1.52% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New Mex. St. 8.12% 1.22% 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Troy 2.14% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
S. Dak. St. 1.16% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Princeton 19.84% 2.68% 0.30% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Bucknell 5.26% 0.98% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FGCU 7.32% 1.42% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
N. Dakota 4.22% 0.22% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Vermont 12.58% 3.16% 0.50% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
URI 30.64% 7.56% 1.88% 0.40% 0.06% 0.00%
Iona 4.10% 0.48% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Jacksonville 1.34% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Texas Southern 0.62% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Winthrop 6.56% 1.10% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kent St. 4.80% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
N. Kent. 1.84% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Mt. St. Mary’s 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NO 0.24% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NC Central 7.54% 2.18% 0.34% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
UC Davis 0.22% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Providence 10.82% 2.68% 0.54% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00%
USC 15.26% 4.12% 0.78% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00%

March 5, 2017

New Ratings March 5, 2016

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:43 am
Rank Team Rating off def
1 Golden State Warriors 11.84 11.48 -0.36
2 San Antonio Spurs 8.06 0.40 -7.66
3 Houston Rockets 6.94 10.55 3.61
4 Utah Jazz 3.73 -5.66 -9.39
5 Cleveland Cavaliers 3.48 5.21 1.73
6 Toronto Raptors 2.85 0.92 -1.93
7 Boston Celtics 2.65 3.02 0.36
8 Los Angeles Clippers 2.64 1.99 -0.65
9 Memphis Grizzlies 2.13 -4.11 -6.25
10 Washington Wizards 2.10 2.34 0.24
11 Miami Heat 0.61 -2.78 -3.39
12 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.39 0.67 0.28
13 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.20 -0.45 -0.65
14 Charlotte Hornets 0.00 -1.07 -1.07
15 Detroit Pistons -0.39 -3.07 -2.67
16 Denver Nuggets -0.42 6.00 6.42
17 Milwaukee Bucks -0.54 -0.89 -0.35
18 Dallas Mavericks -0.99 -7.36 -6.37
19 Indiana Pacers -1.01 -0.79 0.23
20 Chicago Bulls -1.04 -3.46 -2.42
21 Atlanta Hawks -1.62 -1.80 -0.18
22 Portland Trail Blazers -1.64 2.54 4.18
23 Sacramento Kings -2.72 -3.44 -0.72
24 New Orleans Pelicans -3.04 -2.48 0.56
25 New York Knicks -3.41 -0.39 3.02
26 Phoenix Suns -4.09 2.47 6.56
27 Philadelphia 76ers -5.57 -2.95 2.62
28 Orlando Magic -6.05 -5.42 0.63
29 Los Angeles Lakers -6.71 -1.35 5.36
30 Brooklyn Nets -8.39 -0.13 8.26

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