July 20, 2015

Thoughts on Ty Lawson

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:55 am

Hopefully Ty Lawson’s rehab will be successful. The last 2 seasons Ty has been amazing. His Adjusted + – Offense rating is +12 ppg, meaning that when he is  in Lawson causes Denver to score 12 ppg more than an average NBA team. This number marks Lawson as a Top 10 NBA offensive player. Paired with James Harden (another Top 10 offensive player) this trade should enable the Rockets to compete with the Spurs and  Warriors for the NBA West title. Ty is a weak defender (+5 defense rating.) This means that when Ty is in the game Denver (all other things being equal) gives up 5 more ppg than they would if an average defender replaced Ty. Of course, during the last 2 years Ty did not have a good rim protector. Now he has DH12, so his defensive liabilities might be mitigated. You can see below how Lawson impacted the Nuggets during the 2014-2015 season. For example, when Lawson was in with Chandler, Nuggets were an average NBA team while when Chandler was in and Lawson was out Nuggets played 13 ppg worse than average. The Mavs should have gone for Lawson instead of D Williams.

 

1 2 4 5 7 11 12 13
Chandler Gallinari Lawson Nurkic Hickson Foye Faried Afflalo
Lawson and  other in 0 1940m 2 928m 0 2665m 7 689m -7 776m 4 585m 3 1657m 2 1516m
Lawson out and other in -13 532m -10 497m dnp -14 414m -15 635m -20 501m -11 429m -18 234m
Lawson in and other out 0 726m 0 1737m dnp -2 1976m 3 1889m -1 2080m -3 1008m -1 1150m
Lawson out and other out -15 779m -17 813m -14 1311m -15 897m -14 676m -11 810m -16 882m -14 1076m

July 10, 2015

Pachulia is pretty good.

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:13 am

The Mavs recovered quickly from DeAndre Jordan’s immature behavior by signing Pachulia. If he is healthy, Pachulia can impact the game. You can see below how much better the Bucks were with Pachulia on the court. For example, with Pachulia on court with Middle ton Bucks played 14 ppg better than average but with Middleton (an excellent player) in and Pachulia out the Bucks were a mediocre 3 ppg worse than average. I think Mavs overpaid for Mathews, because post Achilles surgery most players do not return to their pre surgery levels, but if D Williams is the Mavs point guard and remains healthy the Mavs can still have a solid season next year.

 

Bayless Middleton Carter-Will Pachulia Dudley Antetokounm Ilyasova Mayo
Pachulia and  other in 8 624m 14 1352m 12 635m 7 1858m 8 557m 5 1317m 8 869m 1 587m
Pachulia out and other in -7 1214m -3 1258m -3 314m dnp -2 1270m -4 1425m -9 592m -5 1266m
Pachulia in and other out 6 1235m -13 507m 4 1223m dnp 6 1301m 13 541m 6 989m 10 1271m
Pachulia out and other out -6 1425m -10 1001m -5 2342m -6 1843m -6 2426m -6 2426m -6 1076m -6 2426m

July 3, 2015

Aldridge is worth the fuss but so was Millsap.

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:01 am

Everyone wants Lamarcus Aldridge. Below you can see why. In most situations Aldridge makes his team at least 10 points better (although Lopez was a capable sub for him.) But if you look below you can see Paul Millsap is fantastic and nobody talks about him. For example, Horford in and Paul out Hawks are 2 ppg worse than average. Millsap has been this good for years, and nobody mentions him. Glad to see him finally get the big payday he deserves.

 

Antic Carroll Korver Teague Millsap Horford Scott Mack Schroder Horford
Millsap and  other in 9 570m 13 1992m 17 1719m 14 1930m 12 2500m 16 1454m 8 189m 1 176m 7 662m 16 1454m
Millsap out and other in -1 467m -12 447m 7 781m 1 401m dnp -2 1003m -5 928m -5 596m -9 948m -2 1003m
Millsap in and other out 13 1930m 11 508m 3 781m 8 570m dnp 7 1046m 13 2311m 13 2324m 14 1838m 7 1046m
Millsap out and other out -6 1122m -2 1143m -16 809m -7 1189m -5 1590m -9 587m -4 662m -5 994m 1 642m -9 587m
Aldridge Batum Leonard Lillard McCollum Afflalo Lopez Matthews
Aldridge and  other in 9 2649m 9 2016m 21 279m 9 2264m 12 511m 4 547m 5 1290m 13 1377m
Aldridge out and other in dnp -2 506m -7 660m 2 781m -3 601m 3 257m 4 424m -3 581m
Aldridge in and other out dnp 8 633m 7 2370m 8 384m 8 2138m 10 2102m 12 1359m 4 1272m
Aldridge out and other out -3 1450m -4 943m -1 789m -10 668m

 

 

-4 849m -5 1193m -7 1026m -3 869m

July 1, 2015

Why Middleton is worth Mucho $$s

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:19 pm

Look how Bucks played last year with Middleton in and out. For example Middleton and Bayless in Bucks play 5 ppg better than average. Bayless in and Middleton out 9 ppg worse than average. I do not know what he does but he impacts the game! These numbers are adjusted for strength of opponents faced.

 

Bayless Plumlee Middleton Carter-Will Pachulia Dudley Antetokounm Ilyasova Mayo Knight
Middleton and  other in 5 950m -2 105m 6 2610m 9 817m 14 1352m 7 1014m 5 1597m 8 1003m 9 690m 6 903m
Middleton out and other in -9 888m -17 101m dnp -3 132m -13 507m -6 813m -7 1144m -15 459m -10 1163m -10 785m
Middleton in and other out 6 1660m 6 2505m dnp 5 1793m -3 1258m 5 1596m 7 1013m 5 1608m 5 1920m 6 1707m
Middleton out and other out -11 889m -11 1674m -19 529m -10 1566m -12 1309m -11 1674m -11 1674m -10 1079m -11 1674m -12 511m

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