March 28, 2012

NBA Ratings last 2 weeks as of March31

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:12 am

Under Wodson, Knicks have been best team!!


Team off def total
New York Knicks -1.58 -15.52 13.94
San Antonio Spurs 8.31 -2.53 10.83
Oklahoma City Thunder 11.66 1.85 9.80
Indiana Pacers 12.49 3.12 9.37
Phoenix Suns 6.72 -0.16 6.89
Utah Jazz 7.43 2.46 4.97
Miami Heat -4.10 -8.76 4.66
Milwaukee Bucks 6.57 2.53 4.05
Houston Rockets -0.41 -2.53 2.13
Philadelphia 76ers -6.67 -8.46 1.79
Dallas Mavericks -1.00 -2.76 1.76
Sacramento Kings 12.18 10.55 1.63
Los Angeles Lakers 2.49 1.03 1.47
Los Angeles Clippers -7.58 -8.38 0.80
Chicago Bulls -5.73 -6.37 0.64
Orlando Magic -5.12 -5.13 0.00
Detroit Pistons -1.11 -0.19 -0.92
Atlanta Hawks 1.93 3.11 -1.18
Minnesota
Timberwolves		 3.80 5.39 -1.58
Boston Celtics -6.73 -3.80 -2.93
Washington Wizards -10.08 -7.10 -2.98
Portland Trail
Blazers		 -0.01 3.05 -3.06
Memphis Grizzlies -1.43 1.93 -3.37
Denver Nuggets 3.30 7.95 -4.65
Toronto Raptors 2.63 7.88 -5.25
New Orleans Hornets -2.41 3.31 -5.71
Golden State
Warriors		 -4.32 2.06 -6.38
Cleveland Cavaliers -4.85 5.84 -10.68
New Jersey Nets -11.11 0.68 -11.79
Charlotte Bobcats -5.27 8.96 -14.23

NBA Ratings March 31

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:11 am

Here are season ratings.


Team off def total
Chicago Bulls 1.63 -5.89 7.52
Miami Heat 5.56 -1.93 7.49
Oklahoma City Thunder 7.90 1.26 6.64
Philadelphia 76ers -2.46 -8.12 5.66
San Antonio Spurs 5.09 0.02 5.08
Los Angeles Lakers -0.21 -3.22 3.02
Indiana Pacers 1.10 -1.77 2.87
Dallas Mavericks -2.00 -4.12 2.13
Orlando Magic -1.95 -3.98 2.02
Memphis Grizzlies -1.30 -3.25 1.96
Denver Nuggets 7.95 6.09 1.87
Atlanta Hawks -1.23 -3.05 1.82
Los Angeles Clippers 0.35 -1.33 1.68
New York Knicks 1.17 -0.16 1.33
Portland Trail
Blazers		 0.26 -0.83 1.09
Minnesota
Timberwolves		 3.17 2.45 0.72
Utah Jazz 2.69 2.10 0.59
Houston Rockets 1.35 0.87 0.49
Boston Celtics -4.69 -4.70 0.00
Milwaukee Bucks 2.74 3.13 -0.39
Phoenix Suns 1.08 1.55 -0.47
Golden State
Warriors		 1.79 3.41 -1.62
New Orleans Hornets -7.55 -3.31 -4.24
Toronto Raptors -4.66 -0.15 -4.51
Sacramento Kings 2.27 7.01 -4.74
Cleveland Cavaliers -1.33 3.77 -5.11
Detroit Pistons -5.88 0.11 -6.00
New Jersey Nets -3.21 3.71 -6.92
Washington Wizards -2.02 5.28 -7.30
Charlotte Bobcats -7.60 5.08 -12.68

NCAA Final 4 odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:58 am

UK 41%, Ohio state 33%, U of L 12%, Kansas 14% chance of winning title.

March 19, 2012

Sweet 16 Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:45 pm
Here are sweet 16 odds

Thus Uk has 21.8% chance of winning, 35.5% chance to make final game etc

Elite 8 Final 4 Championship Game NCAA winner
Team >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Kentucky 0.687 0.541 0.355 0.218
Ohio St. 0.812 0.482 0.294 0.16
UNC 0.858 0.484 0.249 0.131
Mich St 0.716 0.469 0.264 0.118
Kansas 0.789 0.43 0.197 0.101
Syracuse 0.547 0.275 0.141 0.075
Wisconsin 0.453 0.2 0.093 0.048
IU 0.313 0.179 0.094 0.041
Baylor 0.729 0.245 0.089 0.038
Florida 0.495 0.202 0.083 0.032
Marquette 0.505 0.207 0.073 0.024
Louisville 0.284 0.122 0.035 0.009
Cinn 0.188 0.043 0.013 0.003
NC St. 0.211 0.054 0.008 0.002
Xavier 0.271 0.035 0.007 0
Ohio 0.142 0.032 0.005 0

March 11, 2012

e NCAA Tourney Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:13 pm

The table below gives the chance of each team winning 0-6 games (not counting playin as a game!)  For example, Kentucky has a 22.58 chance of winning tourney, a 12.94% chance of winning 5 games (losing in championship), a 15.4% chance of  winning 4 gamesand losing in national semifinal, etc. Picks are based on great Sagarin ratings an 5000 simulations of tournament with Palisade’s great @RISK package.

    Games won
Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Kentucky 0.0062 0.1356 0.2174 0.1316 0.154 0.1294 0.2258
Ohio St. 0.0322 0.1564 0.1462 0.2278 0.1632 0.1116 0.1626
UNC 0.0524 0.2276 0.1592 0.2202 0.1574 0.089 0.0942
Kansas 0.053 0.2086 0.1812 0.2122 0.1594 0.0922 0.0934
Mich St 0.0298 0.2842 0.1768 0.1826 0.1558 0.0814 0.0894
Missouri 0.0252 0.3038 0.1854 0.2126 0.1376 0.0678 0.0676
Syracuse 0.056 0.2236 0.2498 0.2344 0.1032 0.067 0.066
Wisconsin 0.116 0.2552 0.3184 0.1622 0.0704 0.0432 0.0346
Duke 0.1586 0.2218 0.2548 0.2378 0.0672 0.0374 0.0224
IU 0.1882 0.34 0.3126 0.0664 0.049 0.026 0.0178
Wichita St 0.2364 0.352 0.2774 0.0538 0.0398 0.024 0.0166
Baylor 0.265 0.2436 0.1996 0.195 0.057 0.0232 0.0166
Georgetown 0.365 0.1876 0.2614 0.0996 0.053 0.0194 0.014
Marquette 0.3008 0.1974 0.287 0.1204 0.0618 0.0188 0.0138
New Mex 0.342 0.273 0.2446 0.0784 0.0398 0.0144 0.0078
Louisville 0.2608 0.3388 0.263 0.0794 0.0392 0.012 0.0068
Florida 0.4218 0.3744 0.087 0.0724 0.0304 0.0084 0.0056
Memphis 0.452 0.3684 0.077 0.052 0.0326 0.013 0.005
Michigan 0.2924 0.3052 0.272 0.0822 0.0334 0.0104 0.0044
FSU 0.2896 0.318 0.284 0.0716 0.0234 0.0098 0.0036
UNLV 0.277 0.4012 0.168 0.1134 0.027 0.01 0.0034
Vandy 0.3794 0.39 0.1468 0.0534 0.0192 0.0078 0.0034
Kans St. 0.3138 0.476 0.1232 0.056 0.0214 0.0066 0.003
St. Louis 0.548 0.3204 0.0652 0.0382 0.021 0.0052 0.002
Cal 0.5512 0.2184 0.1614 0.0438 0.0194 0.0038 0.002
Creighton 0.4816 0.3772 0.0648 0.0492 0.0204 0.005 0.0018
Temple 0.476 0.2658 0.1844 0.0528 0.0162 0.0032 0.0016
Iowa St 0.4634 0.4486 0.0562 0.0192 0.007 0.0042 0.0014
Murray St 0.3718 0.3868 0.1798 0.0456 0.011 0.0036 0.0014
Texas 0.4558 0.2562 0.2184 0.0434 0.0186 0.0062 0.0014
Belmont 0.635 0.1538 0.151 0.0424 0.0126 0.0038 0.0014
Alabama 0.5184 0.3528 0.061 0.0454 0.0174 0.0038 0.0012
Purdue 0.453 0.399 0.0772 0.0448 0.021 0.004 0.001
Cinn 0.5442 0.2328 0.173 0.0354 0.0108 0.003 0.0008
Gonzaga 0.4508 0.4488 0.0474 0.0366 0.0118 0.0038 0.0008
West Vir 0.5492 0.3688 0.0446 0.0288 0.006 0.0018 0.0008
SD St. 0.5072 0.3274 0.1256 0.0288 0.0074 0.0028 0.0008
St. Mary’s 0.547 0.3494 0.06 0.0312 0.009 0.0026 0.0008
ND 0.4526 0.3648 0.1108 0.06 0.0082 0.003 0.0006
UVA 0.5782 0.2984 0.0594 0.0422 0.018 0.0032 0.0006
NC St. 0.4928 0.3312 0.1354 0.0286 0.0104 0.0012 0.0004
BYU 0.8184 0.0846 0.0724 0.0168 0.0058 0.0016 0.0004
Uconn 0.5366 0.41 0.036 0.0112 0.0052 0.0008 0.0002
Xavier 0.5474 0.3132 0.0904 0.0414 0.0056 0.0018 0.0002
Harvard 0.6206 0.2706 0.0802 0.0214 0.0056 0.0014 0.0002
St. Bon. 0.7104 0.193 0.0812 0.0124 0.0022 0.0006 0.0002
Ohio 0.7076 0.1882 0.0846 0.015 0.0038 0.0006 0.0002
VCU 0.7636 0.1692 0.0568 0.0074 0.002 0.001 0
New Mex St 0.8118 0.1388 0.0432 0.0052 0.0008 0.0002 0
Colorado 0.723 0.2092 0.0522 0.014 0.0016 0 0
SD State 0.735 0.146 0.0778 0.0334 0.0068 0.001 0
Lehigh 0.8414 0.1002 0.0464 0.0102 0.0018 0 0
LIU 0.9702 0.027 0.0028 0 0 0 0
Long Beach 0.658 0.1984 0.111 0.0238 0.0068 0.002 0
Davidson 0.7392 0.1898 0.0596 0.0096 0.0014 0.0004 0
Col St 0.6282 0.2694 0.0826 0.0164 0.0028 0.0006 0
Norfolk 0.9748 0.0234 0.0018 0 0 0 0
UNC Asheville 0.944 0.0438 0.0108 0.0012 0.0002 0 0
So. Miss. 0.6862 0.2566 0.0446 0.0096 0.0026 0.0004 0
Montana 0.884 0.0842 0.0262 0.0048 0.0006 0.0002 0
Loyola Md 0.9678 0.026 0.0052 0.001 0 0 0
Detroit 0.947 0.043 0.0082 0.0018 0 0 0
Wst Ky 0.995 0.0046 0.0004 0 0 0 0
Miss St. 0.9988 0.0012 0 0 0 0 0
Iona 0.8808 0.0618 0.0446 0.0096 0.003 0.0002 0
Lamar 0.9656 0.0264 0.0066 0.0012 0 0.0002 0
Vermont 0.982 0.016 0.0014 0.0006 0 0 0
USF 0.9728 0.0224 0.0046 0.0002 0 0 0

 

See below for the chance wins >= a given number of games.  So UK has 50.9% chance of making Final Four, etc.

Team >=0 >=1 >=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Kentucky 1 0.9938 0.8582 0.6408 0.5092 0.3552 0.2258
Ohio St. 1 0.9678 0.8114 0.6652 0.4374 0.2742 0.1626
UNC 1 0.9476 0.72 0.5608 0.3406 0.1832 0.0942
Kansas 1 0.947 0.7384 0.5572 0.345 0.1856 0.0934
Mich St 1 0.9702 0.686 0.5092 0.3266 0.1708 0.0894
Missouri 1 0.9748 0.671 0.4856 0.273 0.1354 0.0676
Syracuse 1 0.944 0.7204 0.4706 0.2362 0.133 0.066
Wisconsin 1 0.884 0.6288 0.3104 0.1482 0.0778 0.0346
Duke 1 0.8414 0.6196 0.3648 0.127 0.0598 0.0224
IU 1 0.8118 0.4718 0.1592 0.0928 0.0438 0.0178
Wichita St 1 0.7636 0.4116 0.1342 0.0804 0.0406 0.0166
Baylor 1 0.735 0.4914 0.2918 0.0968 0.0398 0.0166
Georgetown 1 0.635 0.4474 0.186 0.0864 0.0334 0.014
Marquette 1 0.6992 0.5018 0.2148 0.0944 0.0326 0.0138
New Mex 1 0.658 0.385 0.1404 0.062 0.0222 0.0078
Louisville 1 0.7392 0.4004 0.1374 0.058 0.0188 0.0068
Florida 1 0.5782 0.2038 0.1168 0.0444 0.014 0.0056
Memphis 1 0.548 0.1796 0.1026 0.0506 0.018 0.005
Michigan 1 0.7076 0.4024 0.1304 0.0482 0.0148 0.0044
FSU 1 0.7104 0.3924 0.1084 0.0368 0.0134 0.0036
UNLV 1 0.723 0.3218 0.1538 0.0404 0.0134 0.0034
Vandy 1 0.6206 0.2306 0.0838 0.0304 0.0112 0.0034
Kans St. 1 0.6862 0.2102 0.087 0.031 0.0096 0.003
St. Louis 1 0.452 0.1316 0.0664 0.0282 0.0072 0.002
Cal 1 0.4488 0.2304 0.069 0.0252 0.0058 0.002
Creighton 1 0.5184 0.1412 0.0764 0.0272 0.0068 0.0018
Temple 1 0.524 0.2582 0.0738 0.021 0.0048 0.0016
Iowa St 1 0.5366 0.088 0.0318 0.0126 0.0056 0.0014
Murray St 1 0.6282 0.2414 0.0616 0.016 0.005 0.0014
Texas 1 0.5442 0.288 0.0696 0.0262 0.0076 0.0014
Belmont 1 0.365 0.2112 0.0602 0.0178 0.0052 0.0014
Alabama 1 0.4816 0.1288 0.0678 0.0224 0.005 0.0012
Purdue 1 0.547 0.148 0.0708 0.026 0.005 0.001
Cinn 1 0.4558 0.223 0.05 0.0146 0.0038 0.0008
Gonzaga 1 0.5492 0.1004 0.053 0.0164 0.0046 0.0008
West Vir 1 0.4508 0.082 0.0374 0.0086 0.0026 0.0008
SD St. 1 0.4928 0.1654 0.0398 0.011 0.0036 0.0008
St. Mary’s 1 0.453 0.1036 0.0436 0.0124 0.0034 0.0008
ND 1 0.5474 0.1826 0.0718 0.0118 0.0036 0.0006
UVA 1 0.4218 0.1234 0.064 0.0218 0.0038 0.0006
NC St. 1 0.5072 0.176 0.0406 0.012 0.0016 0.0004
BYU 1 0.1816 0.097 0.0246 0.0078 0.002 0.0004
Uconn 1 0.4634 0.0534 0.0174 0.0062 0.001 0.0002
Xavier 1 0.4526 0.1394 0.049 0.0076 0.002 0.0002
Harvard 1 0.3794 0.1088 0.0286 0.0072 0.0016 0.0002
St. Bon. 1 0.2896 0.0966 0.0154 0.003 0.0008 0.0002
Ohio 1 0.2924 0.1042 0.0196 0.0046 0.0008 0.0002
VCU 1 0.2364 0.0672 0.0104 0.003 0.001 0
New Mex St 1 0.1882 0.0494 0.0062 0.001 0.0002 0
Colorado 1 0.277 0.0678 0.0156 0.0016 0 0
SD State 1 0.265 0.119 0.0412 0.0078 0.001 0
Lehigh 1 0.1586 0.0584 0.012 0.0018 0 0
LIU 1 0.0298 0.0028 0 0 0 0
Long Beach 1 0.342 0.1436 0.0326 0.0088 0.002 0
Davidson 1 0.2608 0.071 0.0114 0.0018 0.0004 0
Col St 1 0.3718 0.1024 0.0198 0.0034 0.0006 0
Norfolk 1 0.0252 0.0018 0 0 0 0
UNC Asheville 1 0.056 0.0122 0.0014 0.0002 0 0
So. Miss. 1 0.3138 0.0572 0.0126 0.003 0.0004 0
Montana 1 0.116 0.0318 0.0056 0.0008 0.0002 0
Loyola Md 1 0.0322 0.0062 0.001 0 0 0
Detroit 1 0.053 0.01 0.0018 0 0 0
Wst Ky 1 0.005 0.0004 0 0 0 0
Miss St. 1 0.0012 0 0 0 0 0
Iona 1 0.1192 0.0574 0.0128 0.0032 0.0002 0
Lamar 1 0.0344 0.008 0.0014 0.0002 0.0002 0
Vermont 1 0.018 0.002 0.0006 0 0 0
USF 1 0.0272 0.0048 0.0002 0 0 0

NBA Ratings: Last 3 weeks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:57 am

Here are NBA ratings last 3 weeks. This is important for teams considering making trades. Look out for Pacers and Mavs are slipping.


Miami Heat 2.84 -6.29 9.13
Indiana Pacers 3.10 -3.77 6.87
Chicago Bulls 1.42 -4.45 5.87
Oklahoma City Thunder 9.67 3.86 5.81
Memphis Grizzlies 2.03 -3.24 5.27
Philadelphia 76ers -6.41 -11.52 5.11
Los Angeles Lakers 0.60 -3.76 4.36
Orlando Magic -3.06 -5.90 2.84
Minnesota
Timberwolves		 5.24 2.67 2.57
Los Angeles Clippers -1.44 -3.80 2.37
Phoenix Suns -0.53 -2.64 2.11
Denver Nuggets 6.69 5.69 1.00
Portland Trail
Blazers		 -0.01 -0.67 0.66
Golden State
Warriors		 1.12 1.14 -0.02
Atlanta Hawks -9.62 -9.38 -0.24
San Antonio Spurs 4.86 5.29 -0.43
Sacramento Kings 7.71 8.53 -0.82
Utah Jazz 1.36 2.22 -0.86
Dallas Mavericks -5.27 -4.17 -1.10
New Orleans Hornets -5.21 -3.79 -1.42
Toronto Raptors -3.98 -1.90 -2.08
Detroit Pistons -1.80 0.86 -2.66
New York Knicks 4.53 7.49 -2.96
Milwaukee Bucks 4.24 7.23 -2.99
New Jersey Nets -2.74 0.35 -3.09
Boston Celtics -4.75 -1.00 -3.75
Houston Rockets 0.50 4.55 -4.06
Cleveland Cavaliers -5.81 1.88 -7.69
Washington Wizards 2.84 12.08 -9.24
Charlotte Bobcats -8.13 2.44 -10.57

NBA Ratings March 11

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:56 am

Here are whole season NBA ratings. 76ers have league’s best defense,


Team off def total
Miami Heat 7.39 -0.88 8.27
Chicago Bulls 2.63 -5.52 8.15
Oklahoma City Thunder 7.49 1.41 6.08
Philadelphia 76ers -1.71 -7.77 6.06
San Antonio Spurs 4.23 -0.37 4.60
Denver Nuggets 8.84 5.59 3.25
Portland Trail
Blazers		 2.05 -1.20 3.24
Los Angeles Clippers 2.24 -0.83 3.07
Los Angeles Lakers -1.73 -4.62 2.89
Memphis Grizzlies -1.49 -4.34 2.85
Indiana Pacers 0.50 -2.08 2.58
Atlanta Hawks -1.86 -4.20 2.34
Dallas Mavericks -1.94 -4.20 2.27
Orlando Magic -1.82 -3.38 1.56
Minnesota
Timberwolves		 2.21 1.26 0.95
Houston Rockets 1.57 1.23 0.35
Boston Celtics -4.91 -4.49 -0.42
Utah Jazz 1.36 1.93 -0.57
New York Knicks 0.82 1.64 -0.82
Golden State
Warriors		 2.47 3.82 -1.35
Phoenix Suns -0.15 1.43 -1.58
Milwaukee Bucks 1.42 3.04 -1.62
New Orleans Hornets -6.71 -3.06 -3.66
Cleveland Cavaliers -1.24 3.29 -4.53
Toronto Raptors -5.67 -0.93 -4.74
Sacramento Kings 0.98 5.99 -5.01
New Jersey Nets -1.97 4.06 -6.03
Detroit Pistons -5.65 0.80 -6.45
Washington Wizards -1.44 7.23 -8.67
Charlotte Bobcats -7.91 5.15 -13.06

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