I have had a great time teaching a sports and math class to Kelley School of Business students at Indiana University. One of my ace students Paul Aynilian did a study trying to estimate John Hollinger’s famous ESPN PER Ratings based on box score statistics. We found that
45.75*(Points/Minute)+22.55*(Rebounds/Minute)+32.8*(Assists/Minute)+58.2*(Steals/Minute)-48.65*(Turnovers/Minute)
-39.73*(Missed FG’s per minute) -20.6*(Missed FT per minute)+38.37*(Blocked Shots Per Miute)-18.68*(Personal Fouls Per Minute)
explains over 99% of the variation in this season’s PER rankings and is off by an average of .37 in estimating the PER of the top 200 NBA players whose stats are on Yahoo.com. So basically our simple formula virtually duplicates the PER rating without a lot of mumbo jumbo.
The disturbing thing about these weights is that if an NBA player shot 33 .33% (1-3) then the more shots they take the higher their PER because shooting 1 for 3 gives you a net contribution of 2(45.75)-2(39.73)>0!! Clearly this is bad because a 33% shooter is not a good shooter and with these weights the more shots a bad shooter takes, the higher his PER rating.
I just do not see how analytics tell us Afflalo is an eilite NBA player. In almost every situation he made Nuggets worse so for. For example when he is out Nuggets play amazing 11 points better than average.
|
Afflalo |
Brewer |
Faried |
Miller |
Mozgov |
Harrington |
Stone |
Koufos |
Lawson |
Andersen |
Hilario |
Fernandez |
| Afflalo and other in |
-1.16 |
-4.82 |
-6.52 |
2.11 |
-1.06 |
1.86 |
-5.92 |
-5.43 |
-12.30 |
-2.07 |
1.55 |
3.58 |
| Afflalo out and other in |
dnp |
1.76 |
-7.47 |
13.90 |
16.91 |
12.74 |
24.46 |
2.45 |
9.28 |
23.16 |
7.56 |
15.02 |
| Afflalo in and other out |
dnp |
0.22 |
-0.26 |
-3.97 |
-1.21 |
-3.58 |
-0.91 |
0.18 |
0.63 |
-0.34 |
-1.86 |
-5.52 |
| Afflalo out and other out |
11.23 |
18.98 |
14.70 |
1.07 |
10.51 |
7.40 |
12.62 |
14.50 |
12.21 |
5.42 |
17.25 |
7.66 |
I used a distributed lag model to adjust for fatigue and got the following NBA Ratings.
| Team |
off |
def |
total |
| Miami Heat |
8.97 |
0.36 |
8.61 |
| Chicago Bulls |
2.17 |
-5.48 |
7.64 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder |
8.38 |
1.30 |
7.08 |
| Philadelphia 76ers |
-1.80 |
-6.97 |
5.16 |
| San Antonio Spurs |
4.67 |
-0.43 |
5.10 |
Portland Trail
Blazers |
2.80 |
-2.29 |
5.09 |
| Dallas Mavericks |
-1.04 |
-5.31 |
4.27 |
| Denver Nuggets |
9.13 |
5.95 |
3.18 |
| Los Angeles Clippers |
2.39 |
-1.06 |
3.45 |
| Los Angeles Lakers |
-1.85 |
-5.00 |
3.15 |
| Atlanta Hawks |
-1.23 |
-3.04 |
1.81 |
| Orlando Magic |
-2.01 |
-3.74 |
1.73 |
| Memphis Grizzlies |
-1.95 |
-4.28 |
2.33 |
| Indiana Pacers |
0.83 |
-0.91 |
1.74 |
| Houston Rockets |
2.07 |
0.05 |
2.02 |
Minnesota
Timberwolves |
1.79 |
0.72 |
1.07 |
| Boston Celtics |
-5.70 |
-5.12 |
-0.59 |
| New York Knicks |
-0.68 |
0.43 |
-1.11 |
| Milwaukee Bucks |
-0.24 |
1.34 |
-1.58 |
| Phoenix Suns |
0.48 |
2.44 |
-1.96 |
Golden State
Warriors |
3.30 |
4.90 |
-1.60 |
| Utah Jazz |
1.18 |
2.05 |
-0.86 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers |
-1.07 |
3.22 |
-4.29 |
| New Orleans Hornets |
-6.85 |
-3.30 |
-3.55 |
| New Jersey Nets |
-1.90 |
4.27 |
-6.17 |
| Toronto Raptors |
-6.07 |
-0.04 |
-6.03 |
| Detroit Pistons |
-5.32 |
1.51 |
-6.83 |
| Sacramento Kings |
-0.01 |
5.87 |
-5.88 |
| Washington Wizards |
-2.57 |
6.75 |
-9.32 |
| Charlotte Bobcats |
-7.84 |
5.81 |
-13.64 |
Using games in last 20 days we find the following ratings.
| Team |
off |
def |
total |
| Miami Heat |
7.32 |
-4.79 |
12.11 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder |
11.83 |
2.37 |
9.46 |
| Chicago Bulls |
1.16 |
-5.09 |
6.25 |
| Dallas Mavericks |
0.38 |
-5.50 |
5.88 |
| Orlando Magic |
0.07 |
-4.95 |
5.02 |
Portland Trail
Blazers |
3.75 |
-0.66 |
4.41 |
| Los Angeles Clippers |
-1.55 |
-5.36 |
3.81 |
| New York Knicks |
0.26 |
-3.48 |
3.74 |
Golden State
Warriors |
6.23 |
3.10 |
3.14 |
| San Antonio Spurs |
7.65 |
4.85 |
2.80 |
| Houston Rockets |
-0.13 |
-2.43 |
2.30 |
| Los Angeles Lakers |
-1.15 |
-3.11 |
1.96 |
| Phoenix Suns |
2.00 |
1.34 |
0.66 |
| Sacramento Kings |
4.49 |
5.04 |
-0.55 |
Minnesota
Timberwolves |
0.00 |
1.27 |
-1.28 |
| Detroit Pistons |
-0.38 |
0.90 |
-1.28 |
| Memphis Grizzlies |
-4.48 |
-2.98 |
-1.50 |
| Denver Nuggets |
5.17 |
7.46 |
-2.29 |
| Philadelphia 76ers |
-7.33 |
-4.97 |
-2.36 |
| Atlanta Hawks |
-7.51 |
-4.98 |
-2.54 |
| Indiana Pacers |
2.01 |
4.65 |
-2.64 |
| Milwaukee Bucks |
2.20 |
4.93 |
-2.73 |
| New Orleans Hornets |
-8.03 |
-5.11 |
-2.91 |
| Toronto Raptors |
-1.76 |
1.38 |
-3.14 |
| Washington Wizards |
4.01 |
7.37 |
-3.36 |
| Utah Jazz |
-2.90 |
0.81 |
-3.71 |
| Boston Celtics |
-7.51 |
-3.48 |
-4.03 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers |
-1.23 |
2.93 |
-4.16 |
| New Jersey Nets |
-3.49 |
2.69 |
-6.18 |
| Charlotte Bobcats |
-11.08 |
5.79 |
-16.88 |
Sorry for not posting much, but I have been swamped with work. Here are ratings thru all star weekend.
| Team |
off |
def |
total |
| Miami Heat |
8.80 |
0.53 |
8.27 |
| Chicago Bulls |
2.14 |
-5.45 |
7.59 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder |
8.32 |
1.35 |
6.96 |
| San Antonio Spurs |
4.87 |
-0.63 |
5.51 |
Portland Trail
Blazers |
2.82 |
-2.31 |
5.13 |
| Philadelphia 76ers |
-1.87 |
-6.90 |
5.02 |
| Dallas Mavericks |
-1.07 |
-5.27 |
4.20 |
| Los Angeles Clippers |
2.44 |
-1.10 |
3.54 |
| Denver Nuggets |
9.14 |
5.94 |
3.20 |
| Los Angeles Lakers |
-2.02 |
-4.84 |
2.83 |
| Memphis Grizzlies |
-1.86 |
-4.36 |
2.50 |
| Houston Rockets |
2.17 |
-0.04 |
2.21 |
| Atlanta Hawks |
-1.11 |
-3.16 |
2.05 |
| Indiana Pacers |
0.82 |
-0.89 |
1.71 |
| Orlando Magic |
-2.12 |
-3.64 |
1.51 |
Minnesota
Timberwolves |
1.78 |
0.73 |
1.05 |
| Boston Celtics |
-5.82 |
-5.01 |
-0.81 |
| Utah Jazz |
1.19 |
2.05 |
-0.86 |
| New York Knicks |
-0.61 |
0.36 |
-0.97 |
Golden State
Warriors |
3.52 |
4.67 |
-1.15 |
| Milwaukee Bucks |
-0.29 |
1.39 |
-1.68 |
| Phoenix Suns |
0.41 |
2.51 |
-2.10 |
| New Orleans Hornets |
-6.79 |
-3.36 |
-3.44 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers |
-1.22 |
3.37 |
-4.59 |
| Toronto Raptors |
-5.98 |
-0.13 |
-5.85 |
| Sacramento Kings |
0.00 |
5.85 |
-5.85 |
| New Jersey Nets |
-2.05 |
4.42 |
-6.47 |
| Detroit Pistons |
-5.38 |
1.56 |
-6.94 |
| Washington Wizards |
-2.45 |
6.63 |
-9.07 |
| Charlotte Bobcats |
-7.77 |
5.74 |
-13.50 |
Here are ratings based on last 20 days. Spurs were great without Manu, so lookout. Linsanity has really boosted the Knicks.
The Bobcats are on their way to being one of the worst teams ever.
| Team |
off |
def |
total |
| San Antonio Spurs |
3.26 |
-5.21 |
8.47 |
| Portland Trail Blazers |
3.83 |
-4.05 |
7.89 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder |
9.19 |
2.57 |
6.62 |
| Houston Rockets |
1.94 |
-4.39 |
6.33 |
| Chicago Bulls |
1.06 |
-5.04 |
6.10 |
| Boston Celtics |
-3.61 |
-9.43 |
5.82 |
| Miami Heat |
4.01 |
-0.51 |
4.52 |
Golden State
Warriors |
10.09 |
5.81 |
4.28 |
| Dallas Mavericks |
1.97 |
-1.89 |
3.86 |
| Denver Nuggets |
7.63 |
4.10 |
3.53 |
| New York Knicks |
1.34 |
-1.87 |
3.21 |
Minnesota
Timberwolves |
4.79 |
1.75 |
3.04 |
| Los Angeles Clippers |
4.53 |
1.61 |
2.93 |
| Philadelphia 76ers |
-5.58 |
-8.28 |
2.70 |
| Los Angeles Lakers |
-2.06 |
-4.01 |
1.95 |
| Memphis Grizzlies |
-6.54 |
-8.24 |
1.70 |
| Indiana Pacers |
2.82 |
1.59 |
1.22 |
| Sacramento Kings |
-1.06 |
-1.56 |
0.50 |
| Milwaukee Bucks |
5.49 |
5.80 |
-0.30 |
| Atlanta Hawks |
-1.79 |
-1.40 |
-0.40 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers |
-0.65 |
0.55 |
-1.20 |
| Utah Jazz |
2.19 |
5.02 |
-2.84 |
| Orlando Magic |
-6.51 |
-3.43 |
-3.08 |
| Toronto Raptors |
-5.43 |
-0.74 |
-4.68 |
| Phoenix Suns |
-0.13 |
5.43 |
-5.56 |
| New Orleans Hornets |
-5.62 |
0.65 |
-6.27 |
| Detroit Pistons |
-6.47 |
0.81 |
-7.29 |
| New Jersey Nets |
-0.26 |
7.74 |
-7.99 |
| Washington Wizards |
-2.63 |
10.59 |
-13.22 |
| Charlotte Bobcats |
-15.81 |
6.02 |
-21.83 |
The Bulls are a clear #1 and the Heat are overrated.
| Team |
off |
def |
total |
| Chicago Bulls |
2.37 |
-6.64 |
9.02 |
| Philadelphia 76ers |
-0.52 |
-7.30 |
6.79 |
| Miami Heat |
8.29 |
1.68 |
6.60 |
| San Antonio Spurs |
3.45 |
-2.74 |
6.19 |
Oklahoma City
Thunder |
7.30 |
1.69 |
5.61 |
Portland Trail
Blazers |
2.78 |
-2.29 |
5.08 |
| Denver Nuggets |
9.71 |
5.64 |
4.07 |
| Atlanta Hawks |
1.15 |
-2.80 |
3.94 |
| Dallas Mavericks |
-0.74 |
-4.31 |
3.57 |
| Los Angeles Clippers |
3.72 |
0.23 |
3.49 |
| Los Angeles Lakers |
-2.71 |
-5.60 |
2.89 |
| Memphis Grizzlies |
-1.65 |
-4.42 |
2.77 |
| Houston Rockets |
3.12 |
0.54 |
2.58 |
| Indiana Pacers |
0.99 |
-1.29 |
2.28 |
Minnesota
Timberwolves |
1.63 |
0.74 |
0.88 |
| Boston Celtics |
-5.66 |
-5.97 |
0.31 |
| Orlando Magic |
-2.07 |
-2.22 |
0.14 |
| Utah Jazz |
1.65 |
2.17 |
-0.52 |
| Milwaukee Bucks |
0.57 |
1.26 |
-0.69 |
| New York Knicks |
0.00 |
1.28 |
-1.28 |
Golden State
Warriors |
3.41 |
5.49 |
-2.08 |
| Phoenix Suns |
-0.03 |
2.49 |
-2.53 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers |
-0.40 |
3.63 |
-4.04 |
| New Orleans Hornets |
-7.38 |
-2.70 |
-4.68 |
| Toronto Raptors |
-6.65 |
-1.26 |
-5.39 |
| Sacramento Kings |
-1.34 |
4.59 |
-5.93 |
| New Jersey Nets |
-2.23 |
5.22 |
-7.45 |
| Detroit Pistons |
-6.74 |
0.76 |
-7.50 |
| Washington Wizards |
-3.81 |
6.41 |
-10.22 |
| Charlotte Bobcats |
-8.20 |
5.70 |
-13.91 |
Here are ratings based on last 20 days.
Bobcats are really bad.
| Team |
off |
def |
total |
| Dallas Mavericks |
-0.55 |
-8.25 |
7.71 |
| Denver Nuggets |
12.74 |
5.78 |
6.97 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder |
5.35 |
-0.79 |
6.14 |
| Portland Trail Blazers |
0.07 |
-5.83 |
5.90 |
| Atlanta Hawks |
3.03 |
-2.84 |
5.88 |
| Miami Heat |
6.50 |
1.53 |
4.97 |
| Philadelphia 76ers |
-2.73 |
-7.66 |
4.94 |
| San Antonio Spurs |
1.56 |
-3.36 |
4.92 |
| Utah Jazz |
7.79 |
2.90 |
4.89 |
| Memphis Grizzlies |
0.10 |
-4.45 |
4.54 |
| Chicago Bulls |
1.16 |
-3.26 |
4.41 |
| Milwaukee Bucks |
1.75 |
-2.25 |
4.00 |
| Los Angeles Clippers |
4.88 |
1.06 |
3.82 |
| Houston Rockets |
5.58 |
1.89 |
3.70 |
Minnesota
Timberwolves |
3.46 |
-0.04 |
3.51 |
| Indiana Pacers |
4.10 |
1.25 |
2.85 |
| Boston Celtics |
-7.24 |
-9.52 |
2.27 |
| Los Angeles Lakers |
-2.71 |
-3.36 |
0.66 |
| New Orleans Hornets |
-4.31 |
-0.92 |
-3.39 |
| New York Knicks |
-2.09 |
1.34 |
-3.43 |
Golden State
Warriors |
2.68 |
6.65 |
-3.98 |
| Phoenix Suns |
2.24 |
6.80 |
-4.56 |
| New Jersey Nets |
-1.44 |
3.16 |
-4.60 |
| Orlando Magic |
-7.75 |
-2.71 |
-5.03 |
| Toronto Raptors |
-8.65 |
-3.25 |
-5.40 |
| Sacramento Kings |
-6.07 |
2.19 |
-8.26 |
| Detroit Pistons |
-6.15 |
2.25 |
-8.39 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers |
-3.03 |
5.41 |
-8.44 |
| Washington Wizards |
0.74 |
9.56 |
-8.82 |
| Charlotte Bobcats |
-11.01 |
6.75 |
-17.77 |
The East has the league’s 4 best teams. Bobcats are by far the worst team in a while, and things are getting worse (see bottom of post).
| Team |
off |
def |
total |
Philadelphia
76ers |
1.02 |
-7.06 |
8.08 |
| Chicago Bulls |
1.69 |
-5.75 |
7.44 |
| Miami Heat |
9.43 |
2.66 |
6.77 |
| Atlanta Hawks |
2.97 |
-3.39 |
6.36 |
| Denver Nuggets |
11.59 |
5.30 |
6.30 |
Oklahoma City
Thunder |
6.33 |
0.69 |
5.64 |
Portland Trail
Blazers |
2.19 |
-3.33 |
5.52 |
| San Antonio Spurs |
2.85 |
-2.04 |
4.90 |
| Dallas Mavericks |
-0.81 |
-4.51 |
3.70 |
| Los Angeles Clippers |
4.18 |
1.00 |
3.18 |
| Los Angeles Lakers |
-2.49 |
-5.47 |
2.99 |
| Memphis Grizzlies |
-1.18 |
-3.39 |
2.21 |
| Indiana Pacers |
0.13 |
-1.68 |
1.81 |
Minnesota
Timberwolves |
2.34 |
1.05 |
1.30 |
| Milwaukee Bucks |
-0.47 |
-1.68 |
1.21 |
| Utah Jazz |
2.15 |
1.17 |
0.98 |
| Houston Rockets |
3.57 |
2.66 |
0.91 |
| Boston Celtics |
-5.23 |
-5.72 |
0.49 |
| Orlando Magic |
-2.53 |
-1.24 |
-1.29 |
| Phoenix Suns |
0.76 |
3.26 |
-2.51 |
| New York Knicks |
-1.28 |
1.85 |
-3.13 |
| New Orleans Hornets |
-6.63 |
-3.21 |
-3.42 |
Golden State
Warriors |
0.99 |
4.90 |
-3.90 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers |
-0.69 |
3.53 |
-4.22 |
| New Jersey Nets |
-2.08 |
3.64 |
-5.72 |
| Toronto Raptors |
-7.81 |
-1.93 |
-5.89 |
| Sacramento Kings |
-2.34 |
5.95 |
-8.29 |
| Washington Wizards |
-3.99 |
4.75 |
-8.73 |
| Detroit Pistons |
-7.32 |
1.73 |
-9.04 |
| Charlotte Bobcats |
-7.35 |
6.28 |
-13.63 |
