Earlier today we posted about the great lineup decisions made by Rick Carlisle and his staff. Could Coach Spo done anything different? I believe the Heat made many questionable lineup decisions.
Lebron at #4 was great all season. Why forsake it in the finals?
For the entire season Bosh, Wade, James with Jones or House and no other big guy was fantastic:
- 105 min Big 3 +Jones plays 40 ppg better than average +76 points
- 41 min Big 3 +House plays +43 ppg and is +34 points.
Yet we only saw these combos for 3 minutes in the series!!
Chalmers owned Barea; Chalmers should have started Game 5
The Heat realized in Game 6 Chalmers needed to start. But in Games 1-3 Chalmers and Barea in resulted in Heat being +18 points in 42 minutes, so it was clear Chalmers had an edge on on Barea. In Games 4-6 Chalmers continued to own Barea: Heat was +20 points in 50 minutess with Chalmers and Barea in but with Bibby in vs. Barea Mavs were +12 points in 25 minutes.
Heat needed to counter Mavs best lineup and failed.
Kidd Terry Dirk and Chandler in killed Bosh Wade and James : Mavs were +49 points in 63 minutes. Spo needed to find an answer here. Careful examination shows that with Haslem in for 44 minutes Mavs were +47 points but with Anthony in Heat stayed even in 15 minutes. Anthony should have played more against the Mavs best. His defense (like Collison’s) really bothered Dirk.
The Heat had a good combination but they hardly used it!
The Heat had a lineup that really hurt the Mavs but they hardly used it: Wade Bosh Haslem Chalmers and Miller or House was +19 points in 24 minutes. I realize this lineup has James sitting, but this lineup let Wade do his thing and gave the Mavs fits. This lineup is also consistent with our prior view that in most situations going small was the way to go.
The Heat rarely put lineups on the floor involving their best players
In this series the 7 Heat players with the Best Adjusted +/- were James, Bosh, Wade, Chalmers, Miller, House and Howard. Yet the Heat played lineups involving these 7 players for only 7 minutes?
Look at how top Heat lineups performed: The two lineups that played by far the most were both outscored big time!
For example Heat lineup 1 played 5.24 points better than average in 66 minutes and was outscored by 5 points.
1 Anthony Bosh James Wade Bibby 5.24 65.95 DAL MIA* -3.64 -5 82181_MIA_2011
2 Bosh Chalmers Haslem James Wade 1.44 59.12 DAL MIA* -13.81 -17 16668_MIA_2011
3 Anthony Bosh Chalmers James Wade 11.57 26.16 DAL MIA* -1.84 -1 16653_MIA_2011
4 Bosh Chalmers Haslem James Miller 25.19 20.75 DAL MIA* 13.89 6 2332_MIA_2011
5 Bosh Chalmers Haslem Miller Wade 20.91 15.62 DAL MIA* 9.22 3 18460_MIA_2011
6 Bosh Haslem James Miller Wade 14.41 13.82 DAL MIA* -3.47 -1 18708_MIA_2011
7 Chalmers Haslem Howard James Miller 39.23 13.05 DAL MIA* 29.45 8
Now look at the lineups the Mavs played the most: Three of the 5 lineups that played the most were great. Inserting Barea in the starting lineups killed off lineups 3 and 4! Putting Cardinal in killed off lineup 9. Lineups 7 and 8 rested Kidd and Chandler so Mavs took a hit here. I leave it for you to judge which coach did a better job managing their rotations.
1 Chandler Kidd Marion Nowitzki Terry 46.56 66.43 MIA DAL* 31.79 44 21792_DAL_2011
2 Barea Chandler Kidd Marion Nowitzki 19.44 47.51 MIA DAL* 11.12 11 5410_DAL_2011
3 Chandler Kidd Marion Nowitzki Stevenson -2.09 28.00 MIA DAL* -12.00 -7 13600_DAL_2011
4 Barea Chandler Nowitzki Stevenson Terry -11.56 17.15 MIA DAL* -22.36 -8 28706_DAL_2011
5 Chandler Kidd Nowitzki Stevenson Terry 57.74 15.78 MIA DAL* 42.61 14 28960_DAL_2011
6 Cardinal Chandler Kidd Marion Terry 27.51 14.86 MIA DAL* 16.15 5 17712_DAL_2011
7 Barea Mahinmi Nowitzki Stevenson Terry -6.55 14.82 MIA DAL* -16.20 -5 29186_DAL_2011
8 Barea Haywood Nowitzki Stevenson Terry -29.10 10.94 MIA DAL* -39.47 -9 28738_DAL_2011
9 Chandler Kidd Marion Terry Stojakovic -56.89 9.66 MIA DAL* -59.70 -12