April 15, 2011

NBA Ratings: Only against Playoff teams

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:01 am

ELGEE asked to rate teams based only on games involving playoff teams. Here it is. So if you predict Lakers-Bulls here is some  evidence in favor of your view.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Los Angeles Lakers 0.990418 -6.53599 4.266411
2 Chicago Bulls -0.17279 -7.30618 3.873393
3 Boston Celtics -2.09886 -8.10156 2.742693
4 Miami Heat 0.888504 -4.83234 2.460845
5 San Antonio Spurs 3.511507 -1.62152 1.873023
6 Dallas Mavericks 1.905904 -2.43494 1.080847
7 Orlando Magic -0.76383 -5.03447 1.01064
8 Denver Nuggets 7.148813 3.019462 0.869351
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.590779 0.882638 0.448141
10 Memphis Grizzlies 2.472132 -0.59126 -0.19661
11 New York Knickerbockers 6.9389 5.155352 -1.47645
12 New Orleans Hornets -4.63027 -6.17987 -1.7104
13 Philadelphia 76ers -2.00971 -3.0307 -2.23901
14 Portland Trail Blazers -3.39776 -4.26591 -2.39184
15 Indiana Pacers 0.672689 2.30482 -4.89213
16 Atlanta Hawks -6.09306 -3.61199 -5.74107

April 14, 2011

Final NBA regular season ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:42 am

Here are final regular season ratings. Basically we find the set of ratings that best fit the scores for the relevant time frame. Strength of schedule is included in these ratings. Note Celticsc have been mediocre last 45 days. My pick in the East (I hate to say it) is the Heat. Even with all their struggles they have been the league’s best team (based on scores, not wins and losses. I do not have a Western Conference pick yet. At end of post I summarize the overal ratings trends  by team.

Last 15 days

Team Off Def Overall
Miami Heat 2.75 -6.98 9.73
Oklahoma City Thunder 9.81 1.30 8.51
Denver Nuggets 4.07 -3.67 7.74
Chicago Bulls -1.56 -8.43 6.87
Milwaukee Bucks -3.88 -8.59 4.71
Los Angeles Lakers -2.08 -6.36 4.28
Golden State Warriors 5.18 1.09 4.10
Orlando Magic -5.95 -9.94 3.99
Dallas Mavericks 2.37 -1.32 3.69
Boston Celtics -5.76 -9.37 3.62
New York Knickerbockers 11.22 8.23 2.99
San Antonio Spurs 6.39 3.68 2.71
Memphis Grizzlies -3.17 -5.02 1.85
Portland Trail Blazers -4.29 -4.99 0.69
Cleveland Cavaliers -0.57 -0.64 0.07
Indiana Pacers 2.78 3.16 -0.38
Detroit Pistons 5.46 5.95 -0.49
Utah Jazz -4.56 -3.24 -1.32
Los Angeles Clippers -3.22 -1.79 -1.44
Washington Wizards 4.77 6.40 -1.63
Houston Rockets 1.51 3.64 -2.13
Philadelphia 76ers -5.39 -2.93 -2.46
Sacramento Kings 1.80 4.58 -2.78
Toronto Raptors 0.68 4.70 -4.03
Charlotte Bobcats -3.38 1.97 -5.35
Phoenix Suns 1.00 6.46 -5.46
Atlanta Hawks -7.60 -0.55 -7.05
New Orleans Hornets -6.62 1.03 -7.65
New Jersey Nets -3.13 6.23 -9.36
Minnesota Timberwolves 1.38 15.41 -14.03

Last 30 days

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 5.18 -3.49 8.67
2 Chicago Bulls 0.05 -7.18 7.23
3 Dallas Mavericks -0.36 -7.50 7.14
4 Portland Trail Blazers -1.72 -8.61 6.89
5 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.05 -1.59 6.64
6 Miami Heat 2.96 -3.19 6.15
7 San Antonio Spurs 6.94 1.63 5.31
8 Memphis Grizzlies -1.40 -6.23 4.84
9 Los Angeles Lakers 1.08 -3.33 4.41
10 Houston Rockets 6.17 1.79 4.38
11 Orlando Magic -5.44 -9.26 3.82
12 Golden State Warriors 6.49 3.80 2.68
13 Philadelphia 76ers -0.20 -1.37 1.17
14 Boston Celtics -10.10 -10.85 0.74
15 New York Knickerbockers 9.20 9.78 -0.58
16 Milwaukee Bucks -6.12 -4.98 -1.14
17 Sacramento Kings 2.46 4.04 -1.58
18 Phoenix Suns 4.82 6.71 -1.88
19 Indiana Pacers 1.78 3.77 -1.99
20 Los Angeles Clippers -0.54 1.64 -2.18
21 Detroit Pistons 0.87 3.28 -2.41
22 Utah Jazz -2.99 -0.29 -2.70
23 New Orleans Hornets -2.96 -0.03 -2.94
24 Atlanta Hawks -5.50 -0.23 -5.27
25 Cleveland Cavaliers -4.91 0.91 -5.83
26 Washington Wizards 2.17 8.41 -6.24
27 Charlotte Bobcats -6.26 0.47 -6.72
28 Toronto Raptors -1.64 5.97 -7.61
29 New Jersey Nets -6.10 4.07 -10.17
30 Minnesota Timberwolves 1.01 11.85 -10.84

Last 45 days

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 6.61 -3.23 9.84
2 Chicago Bulls -1.19 -9.51 8.32
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.42 -1.80 7.21
4 Los Angeles Lakers -0.89 -7.50 6.61
5 Dallas Mavericks 1.73 -4.70 6.43
6 Miami Heat 2.19 -3.64 5.84
7 Houston Rockets 5.40 0.24 5.16
8 Portland Trail Blazers -3.24 -7.52 4.28
9 Orlando Magic -2.55 -6.77 4.22
10 San Antonio Spurs 5.34 1.35 3.99
11 Memphis Grizzlies -0.72 -4.64 3.92
12 Boston Celtics -7.56 -8.96 1.39
13 Golden State Warriors 6.21 5.57 0.64
14 New York Knickerbockers 8.77 8.30 0.47
15 Philadelphia 76ers 0.27 0.26 0.00
16 Los Angeles Clippers 0.04 0.99 -0.95
17 Phoenix Suns 5.94 7.06 -1.13
18 Milwaukee Bucks -7.83 -6.60 -1.23
19 New Orleans Hornets -4.43 -2.93 -1.50
20 Sacramento Kings 3.94 6.30 -2.36
21 Indiana Pacers -0.19 3.44 -3.63
22 Atlanta Hawks -6.26 -2.50 -3.76
23 Utah Jazz -0.12 3.69 -3.81
24 Detroit Pistons 1.20 5.01 -3.82
25 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.61 7.06 -6.45
26 Charlotte Bobcats -7.44 -0.20 -7.24
27 Cleveland Cavaliers -6.22 1.30 -7.53
28 New Jersey Nets -3.36 4.32 -7.68
29 Toronto Raptors -0.55 7.29 -7.84
30 Washington Wizards -1.09 8.30 -9.39

Whole season

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Miami Heat 2.48 -4.28 6.76
2 Chicago Bulls -1.08 -7.61 6.53
3 Los Angeles Lakers 1.51 -4.50 6.01
4 San Antonio Spurs 3.89 -1.97 5.86
5 Orlando Magic -0.33 -5.26 4.92
6 Boston Celtics -3.33 -8.15 4.83
7 Denver Nuggets 7.70 2.90 4.81
8 Dallas Mavericks 0.36 -4.05 4.41
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.03 1.22 3.81
10 Memphis Grizzlies 0.14 -2.41 2.55
11 Houston Rockets 6.27 3.90 2.37
12 Portland Trail Blazers -3.68 -5.53 1.85
13 New Orleans Hornets -4.96 -6.24 1.28
14 Philadelphia 76ers -0.51 -1.52 1.01
15 New York Knickerbockers 7.52 7.04 0.48
16 Phoenix Suns 5.64 6.10 -0.46
17 Milwaukee Bucks -7.80 -6.78 -1.01
18 Atlanta Hawks -4.52 -3.42 -1.10
19 Indiana Pacers 0.56 1.93 -1.37
20 Utah Jazz -0.19 1.25 -1.44
21 Golden State Warriors 3.81 5.81 -2.00
22 Los Angeles Clippers -1.23 1.48 -2.71
23 Detroit Pistons -2.19 1.59 -3.78
24 Charlotte Bobcats -6.06 -1.98 -4.08
25 Sacramento Kings -0.22 4.58 -4.80
26 Minnesota Timberwolves 1.65 7.62 -5.97
27 Toronto Raptors 0.06 6.34 -6.28
28 New Jersey Nets -5.12 1.16 -6.28
29 Washington Wizards -1.71 5.58 -7.30
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.69 5.19 -8.88

Team 15 30 45 whole season
Atlanta Hawks -7.05384 -5.27097 -3.76411 -1.096562531
Boston Celtics 3.615803 0.742613 1.392797 4.825169656
Charlotte Bobcats -5.35401 -6.72392 -7.23904 -4.077861962
Chicago Bulls 6.867127 7.233879 8.318272 6.532005287
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.066262 -5.82712 -7.52503 -8.877621216
Dallas Mavericks 3.689128 7.139653 6.429809 4.407579902
Denver Nuggets 7.742269 8.673687 9.843389 4.805480395
Detroit Pistons -0.49115 -2.41299 -3.81827 -3.781584926
Golden State Warriors 4.09511 2.683985 0.641084 -2.003972344
Houston Rockets -2.12677 4.380636 5.160378 2.373791679
Indiana Pacers -0.37607 -1.99409 -3.63363 -1.374699687
Los Angeles Clippers -1.43606 -2.17702 -0.94891 -2.714489024
Los Angeles Lakers 4.280377 4.407166 6.605525 6.008155149
Memphis Grizzlies 1.85022 4.835622 3.919905 2.54548234
Miami Heat 9.734905 6.148593 5.83661 6.756025086
Milwaukee Bucks 4.714192 -1.14085 -1.23335 -1.014764878
Minnesota Timberwolves -14.0272 -10.8415 -6.45288 -5.968896372
New Jersey Nets -9.36306 -10.1691 -7.6822 -6.281048644
New Orleans Hornets -7.65119 -2.93672 -1.50377 1.278859412
New York Knickerbockers 2.994693 -0.58358 0.466013 0.48283656
Oklahoma City Thunder 8.507566 6.643336 7.214468 3.811915499
Orlando Magic 3.994252 3.824944 4.217785 4.924495264
Philadelphia 76ers -2.46251 1.172033 0.004973 1.005481412
Phoenix Suns -5.46118 -1.88475 -1.12661 -0.458243273
Portland Trail Blazers 0.692959 6.888179 4.280275 1.845327344
Sacramento Kings -2.779 -1.57931 -2.35674 -4.802874153
San Antonio Spurs 2.712156 5.314046 3.987955 5.863334834
Toronto Raptors -4.02695 -7.60758 -7.83668 -6.275295633
Utah Jazz -1.31704 -2.70291 -3.80821 -1.441445493
Washington Wizards -1.63101 -6.23596 -9.38981 -7.296573364

 

April 4, 2011

NBA Ratings April 4 2011

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:39 pm

Here are NBA whole season ratings.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Chicago Bulls -0.81 -7.96 7.15
2 Los Angeles Lakers 1.12 -5.47 6.59
3 Miami Heat 2.95 -3.07 6.02
4 Denver Nuggets 7.93 2.33 5.59
5 San Antonio Spurs 3.68 -1.62 5.29
6 Orlando Magic -0.35 -4.91 4.55
7 Boston Celtics -4.25 -8.76 4.50
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.48 0.12 4.36
9 Memphis Grizzlies 0.31 -3.58 3.89
10 Dallas Mavericks 0.39 -3.26 3.65
11 Houston Rockets 7.25 4.00 3.25
12 Portland Trail Blazers -3.01 -5.65 2.64
13 Philadelphia 76ers 1.02 -1.41 2.43
14 New Orleans Hornets -4.74 -6.01 1.28
15 New York Knickerbockers 7.52 7.62 -0.10
16 Phoenix Suns 4.94 5.45 -0.51
17 Atlanta Hawks -5.11 -4.12 -0.99
18 Milwaukee Bucks -8.36 -7.14 -1.22
19 Indiana Pacers 0.55 2.52 -1.97
20 Los Angeles Clippers -0.35 2.14 -2.49
21 Golden State Warriors 3.77 6.33 -2.56
22 Utah Jazz -0.41 2.67 -3.08
23 Detroit Pistons -2.74 1.14 -3.88
24 Charlotte Bobcats -6.77 -2.68 -4.09
25 Sacramento Kings 0.57 4.68 -4.11
26 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.78 6.17 -5.39
27 New Jersey Nets -4.97 1.37 -6.35
28 Toronto Raptors 0.55 7.25 -6.70
29 Washington Wizards -2.15 6.04 -8.19
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.75 5.80 -9.55

Here areratings based on  last 45 days of games.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 6.00 -5.32 11.32
2 Los Angeles Lakers 1.37 -7.73 9.10
3 Chicago Bulls -0.13 -9.15 9.02
4 Miami Heat 4.73 -2.42 7.14
5 Portland Trail Blazers -1.18 -8.25 7.07
6 Oklahoma City Thunder 3.45 -2.85 6.30
7 Houston Rockets 7.95 1.96 5.99
8 Memphis Grizzlies -0.02 -5.04 5.03
9 Dallas Mavericks -0.37 -4.38 4.01
10 San Antonio Spurs 6.09 2.71 3.38
11 Orlando Magic -3.13 -6.48 3.35
12 Philadelphia 76ers 3.64 0.88 2.76
13 Boston Celtics -7.77 -9.45 1.67
14 New Orleans Hornets -2.98 -3.38 0.40
15 Atlanta Hawks -4.91 -3.90 -1.01
16 Phoenix Suns 5.45 6.81 -1.36
17 New York Knickerbockers 9.56 11.22 -1.66
18 Golden State Warriors 4.79 6.61 -1.82
19 Los Angeles Clippers 0.42 2.32 -1.90
20 Sacramento Kings 3.52 5.54 -2.02
21 Milwaukee Bucks -9.14 -6.95 -2.18
22 Indiana Pacers -1.14 3.28 -4.42
23 Detroit Pistons -1.19 3.48 -4.67
24 Utah Jazz 0.10 6.16 -6.06
25 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.10 3.99 -6.09
26 Toronto Raptors 1.56 8.91 -7.35
27 New Jersey Nets -4.25 3.13 -7.37
28 Charlotte Bobcats -10.44 -2.89 -7.55
29 Cleveland Cavaliers -7.65 2.42 -10.07
30 Washington Wizards -2.24 8.77 -11.01

Here are last 30 day ratings

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 5.59 -5.85 11.45
2 Los Angeles Lakers 2.99 -6.93 9.92
3 Miami Heat 5.44 -4.01 9.45
4 Chicago Bulls 0.95 -7.84 8.79
5 Portland Trail Blazers -0.43 -8.68 8.26
6 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.65 -3.10 5.76
7 Memphis Grizzlies 0.20 -4.94 5.14
8 Houston Rockets 8.34 3.29 5.05
9 Dallas Mavericks -1.35 -5.00 3.66
10 Philadelphia 76ers 4.03 0.63 3.40
11 Orlando Magic -3.36 -6.56 3.20
12 San Antonio Spurs 5.37 2.93 2.44
13 Boston Celtics -9.60 -11.05 1.46
14 New Orleans Hornets -1.05 -2.24 1.19
15 Milwaukee Bucks -8.11 -6.97 -1.15
16 Atlanta Hawks -5.28 -3.79 -1.49
17 Golden State Warriors 4.94 6.70 -1.76
18 New York Knickerbockers 9.38 11.28 -1.90
19 Phoenix Suns 4.50 6.53 -2.03
20 Los Angeles Clippers 0.80 3.02 -2.22
21 Sacramento Kings 3.36 5.74 -2.38
22 Detroit Pistons -0.94 2.97 -3.91
23 Indiana Pacers -1.75 2.73 -4.48
24 Utah Jazz -1.14 5.75 -6.89
25 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.26 4.92 -7.18
26 Charlotte Bobcats -10.50 -3.26 -7.23
27 Toronto Raptors 1.84 9.26 -7.42
28 New Jersey Nets -4.69 3.26 -7.95
29 Washington Wizards -1.23 9.22 -10.44
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -8.71 2.01 -10.71
Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 5.59 -5.85 11.45
2 Los Angeles Lakers 2.99 -6.93 9.92
3 Miami Heat 5.44 -4.01 9.45
4 Chicago Bulls 0.95 -7.84 8.79
5 Portland Trail Blazers -0.43 -8.68 8.26
6 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.65 -3.10 5.76
7 Memphis Grizzlies 0.20 -4.94 5.14
8 Houston Rockets 8.34 3.29 5.05
9 Dallas Mavericks -1.35 -5.00 3.66
10 Philadelphia 76ers 4.03 0.63 3.40
11 Orlando Magic -3.36 -6.56 3.20
12 San Antonio Spurs 5.37 2.93 2.44
13 Boston Celtics -9.60 -11.05 1.46
14 New Orleans Hornets -1.05 -2.24 1.19
15 Milwaukee Bucks -8.11 -6.97 -1.15
16 Atlanta Hawks -5.28 -3.79 -1.49
17 Golden State Warriors 4.94 6.70 -1.76
18 New York Knickerbockers 9.38 11.28 -1.90
19 Phoenix Suns 4.50 6.53 -2.03
20 Los Angeles Clippers 0.80 3.02 -2.22
21 Sacramento Kings 3.36 5.74 -2.38
22 Detroit Pistons -0.94 2.97 -3.91
23 Indiana Pacers -1.75 2.73 -4.48
24 Utah Jazz -1.14 5.75 -6.89
25 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.26 4.92 -7.18
26 Charlotte Bobcats -10.50 -3.26 -7.23
27 Toronto Raptors 1.84 9.26 -7.42
28 New Jersey Nets -4.69 3.26 -7.95
29 Washington Wizards -1.23 9.22 -10.44
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -8.71 2.01 -10.71

Here are ratings based on last 15 days of games.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 3.38 -11.37 14.75
2 Chicago Bulls 6.31 -5.59 11.91
3 Memphis Grizzlies 0.98 -9.57 10.55
4 Los Angeles Lakers 6.79 -3.45 10.24
5 Portland Trail Blazers -4.02 -12.02 8.00
6 Philadelphia 76ers 3.41 -2.67 6.07
7 San Antonio Spurs 9.01 4.04 4.97
8 Miami Heat 5.91 0.94 4.97
9 Houston Rockets 13.02 8.32 4.70
10 Sacramento Kings 7.42 2.81 4.62
11 Dallas Mavericks -5.33 -8.60 3.27
12 New Orleans Hornets 1.11 -1.34 2.45
13 Oklahoma City Thunder 1.56 -0.28 1.85
14 Boston Celtics -9.51 -9.84 0.34
15 Milwaukee Bucks -11.27 -10.59 -0.68
16 Golden State Warriors 4.38 5.34 -0.95
17 Atlanta Hawks -3.76 -2.53 -1.23
18 Phoenix Suns 5.31 7.09 -1.79
19 Indiana Pacers 1.49 3.95 -2.46
20 Orlando Magic -9.31 -6.68 -2.63
21 Los Angeles Clippers -0.84 3.21 -4.06
22 Detroit Pistons -3.75 0.64 -4.39
23 Utah Jazz -5.31 0.75 -6.07
24 New York Knickerbockers 9.08 16.63 -7.55
25 Toronto Raptors 1.35 8.97 -7.62
26 Washington Wizards 2.27 10.15 -7.88
27 Charlotte Bobcats -10.68 -1.04 -9.63
28 Minnesota Timberwolves -3.47 6.25 -9.72
29 Cleveland Cavaliers -6.34 4.01 -10.35
30 New Jersey Nets -9.18 2.48 -11.66

As you saw on Sunday our view that the Nuggets were #1` in recent weeks was not far off base! Again a – rating on defense is good because team gives up less points than average.

April 3, 2011

Thoughts on Derrick Rose and the Bulls

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:51 pm

It looks like Derrick Rose will win MVP. I love his game , his desire, and his team first ethic , he should not be MVP. Let’s look at how the Bulls play (per 48 minutes , adjusted for strength of opponent) with various players on the court.

  • Rose in 8 points better than average.
  • Rose out 1 point better than average.

 

So the Bulls are a decent team without Rose in so he must have good teammates. Our Adjusted +/- numbers show Rose’s best teammates are Deng, Asik and Korver. To see why look at the following numbers.

  • Rose in with Deng out the Bulls play 2 points worse than average.
  • Deng in without Rose Bulls are 3 points better than average.

If this does not convince you that Deng is a good player, I do not know what will.

Here are some more numbers

  • Rose and Deng in with Korver and Asik both out Bulls are 4 points better than average
  • Rose and Deng in with at least one of Korver and  Asik in Bulls are 17 points better than average.

This ought to convince you that Asik and Korver are also pretty good.

So Rose has some pretty good teammates and I am afraid he is not the MVP.

I will try and analyze other candidates later this week but I have 4 sections of spreadsheet modeling to teach!

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