April 30, 2011

First Round Heroes

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:18 am

The first round of the playoffs is complete. Which players on the winners helped their teams the most? We give our Adjusted +/- and Impact ratings for the key guys in the first round. The most unsung heroes are probably Korver, Mayo, Harden and Blake.

ATL Points Impact
Crawford 7 42
JJ 8 22
Collins 13 16
Rose 8 37
Deng 10 25
Korver 4 52
KG 15 27
Pierce 10 28
Allen 10 45
Dirk 17 35
Terry 11 45
Kidd 9 31
Blake 11 37
Zach 11 41
Conley 7 22
Mayo 13 54
Gasol 6 36
LeBron 15 24
Wade 7 22
KD 16 56
Westbrook 8 41
Harden 5 37

April 26, 2011

Is it too Late for the Spurs?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:05 am

The Spurs are probably going to lose the series to the Grizzlies. It did not have to be this way. Our Adjusted +/- ratings for the series have shown that Bonner (-9 points and -53 Impact) and Neal (-22 points and -52 Impact) have killed the Spurs. This has been clear after two games. Blair (+6 points, +5 Impact) has played ok. Yet Bonner averages 20 minutes, Neal 19 and Blair 12 minutes? Virtually every bad lineup for Spurs has Neal or Bonner in. See below. Maybe its not too late, but better playing time decisions sure would have helped. With Neal and Bonner out Spurs play 20 points better than average per 48 minutes. With either in they play 8 points worse than average.


1  Duncan      Ginobili    Jefferson   McDyess     Parker        29.75    33.53  MEM  SAS*     22.91    16        1448_SAS_2011

    2  Bonner      Duncan      Hill        Jefferson   Parker        -4.39    14.51  MEM  SAS*    -13.25    -4        1228_SAS_2011

    3  Duncan      Hill        Jefferson   McDyess     Parker        -7.19    12.74  MEM  SAS*    -15.08    -4        1480_SAS_2011

    4  Blair       Bonner      Ginobili    Hill        Neal         -12.00    10.82  MEM  SAS*    -13.31    -3         614_SAS_2011

    5  Bonner      Duncan      Hill        Jefferson   Neal         -67.67     9.25  MEM  SAS*    -77.83   -15         716_SAS_2011

    6  Blair       Duncan      Hill        Jefferson   Parker        77.36     8.56  MEM  SAS*     72.93    13        1226_SAS_2011

    7  Duncan      Hill        McDyess     Neal        Parker       -44.12     8.14  MEM  SAS*    -53.16    -9        1864_SAS_2011

    8  Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        Jefferson   McDyess       30.90     7.72  MEM  SAS*     18.66     3         488_SAS_2011

    9  Bonner      Ginobili    Hill        Jefferson   Splitter     -49.34     6.82  MEM  SAS*    -63.37    -9        4324_SAS_2011

   10  Blair       Bonner      Jefferson   Neal        Parker       -21.32     6.79  MEM  SAS*    -28.29    -4        1670_SAS_2011


                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#


   11  Duncan      Jefferson   McDyess     Neal        Parker       -65.53     6.48  MEM  SAS*    -74.03   -10        1928_SAS_2011

   12  Blair       Neal        Splitter    Green       Novak         11.34     5.72  MEM  SAS*     16.79     2      299522_SAS_2011

   13  Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        McDyess     Parker       -18.74     5.30  MEM  SAS*    -27.17    -3        1384_SAS_2011

   14  Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        Neal          19.40     4.89  MEM  SAS*      9.72     1         620_SAS_2011

   15  Bonner      Duncan      Ginobili    Jefferson   Parker        -5.28     4.61  MEM  SAS*    -20.85    -2        1196_SAS_2011

   16  Duncan      Ginobili    Hill        McDyess     Neal          19.51     4.18  MEM  SAS*     11.45     1         872_SAS_2011

   17  Blair       Bonner      Hill        Neal        Parker       108.96     3.74  MEM  SAS*    102.86     8        1606_SAS_201

Exclusive playoff ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:43 am

We want to know who has been the most impressive team in the playoffs so far. Our playoff (Jeff Sagarin and myself) have the answer. We adjust for ability of players faced and home court to tell you how many points better or worse than an average NBA team each team has played. Here are the results (listed by series). For example Boston has played 11.6 points per game better than an average NBA team. To win the title you usually need to play 13-15 points better than average.

  • Boston +11.6
  • Knicks -.2
  • Bulls +2.3
  • Pacers +4.6
  • Dallas +11.5
  • Port +5.8
  • LAL +5.8
  • NOH +7.4
  • MIA +11.8
  • PHI +4.6
  • OKC +13.7
  • DEN +4.5
  • ORL -.6
  • ATL 12.8
  • MEM +13.5
  • SAS +3.3

Looks like Thunder, Hawks and Grizzlies  have been best so far and Boston Miami is shaping up as a really close series.

April 24, 2011

Thoughts on Pacers and Grizzlies

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:56 am

The Pacers Bulls and Grizzlies Spurs series can be summed up in a couple of sentences. All numbers on lineups are per48 minutes, adjusted for strength of players faced.

  • When the Bulls have Korver, Boozer, Deng and Rose on court with Noah or Gibson they are great; play at 40 points better than average per 48 minutes in 39 minutes. Rest of time Bulls play 10 points worse than average.
  • Pacers would have won this series if they realized that when Foster and or Dunleavy are in they are great: 87 minutes  playing 19 points better than average. Rest of time Pacers play 5 points worse than average.
  • The Griz are awesome with Mayo, Gasol Randolph and Battier or Tony Allen on court. 33 minutes 42 points better than average. Rest of time Griz are average.
  • Spurs are horrible when at least one of two subs are on court. If they figure this out they will win the series. If they don’t they will not.

April 23, 2011

Playoff Thoughts on Hawks, Celtics, and Lakers

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:18 am

Looks like Celtics, Hawks, and Lakers will move on. How have they dominated their series? All numbers below are adjusted +/- per 48 minutes for the series. Remember a  negative defensive rating is good. For example, -20 means your team gives up 20 fewer points per 48 minutes (relativeto average defender) when you are in after adjusting for who you played with and against.

Hawks Magic

The Hawks have been great. Crawford +11, JJ +18, Smith +17, Horford +11 and Collins+24 (-32 defense rating)  have been great.

     Superman’s teammates have really let him down.  No way he stays in Orlando unless they shape up. Turk -7, Anderson -7 and Nelson -8 have been below average while Bass -23, JR -17 and Q Richardson -28 have played poorly.

Celtics Knicks

For the Celtics the Big 3 have been terrific. KG +17 (-16 defense rating) dominated the injury plagued Amare (-17) Pierce +10 and Allen +12 haqve also been superb.

   For the Knicks DOuglas -13 (-13 offense rating) has struggled while Walker +14 and Williams +12 deserve more PT.

Lakers Hornets

After the amazing Game 1 upset things have settled back to normal. Blake +6 (+40 Impact) has been a key the last two games. For the Hornets CP3 (+16,, +29 Impact) has been great. Gray +25 and Smith +8 deserve more PT. Ariza -8  has been disapointing.

Key lineups

When Redick replaces JR with Orlando’s starters Magic play 92 points better than average. Play this quintet more! The Hawks have been great (+19 points) in the 42 minutes Hinrich, JJ, Horford and Smith are on court with Collins or Crawford.

The Celtics starting lineup (Big 3 +Rondo+Davis) is +31 points in 65 minutes. For the Knicks Amare, Melo Douglas, Turiaf and Fields is -20 points in 18 minutes. Walker, Williams, Melo Jeffriesand Carter is +15 points in 7 minutes.

The Lakers starting lineup is +10 points in 50 minutes. Blake, Barnes Brown, Odom and Bynum is +9 points in 12 minutes and has played a key role in games 2 and 3.

  The Hornets starting lineup is -16 points in 35 minutes. When Gray replaces Okafor,  Hornets are +11 points in 11 minutes.

April 22, 2011

Thoughts on Pacers, Heat and Mavs

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:08 am

We told the Pacers to play Mike Dunleavy more and they did not listen. The result was another heartbreaking loss. Here are some Adjusted +/- and Impact numbers for the series. Again Impact measures how you change the chance of the team winning the game

  • McRoberts +8 points +35 impact 15 minutes per game
  • Dunleavy +25 points +114 Impact 14 minutes per game
  • Foster +14 points +42 Impact 190 minutes per game
  • Hansbrough -3 points, -45 Impact 35 minutes per game.

For the Heat the Big 3 have been great but give James Jones some love, +12 points and +63 Impact.

For the Mavs Dirk and Terry have been the whole show. Dirk with +20 points rating, +55 Impact and JET with +15 points and +72 Impact.

Barea has a -10 Offense rating, Marion a -13 and Stevenson a -26. This means Mavs score poorly when any of these guys are in. Time maybe for a Corey Brewer siting?

April 21, 2011

How the Lakers Won Game 2

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:42 pm

Have 230 students till May 6 so it is hard to keep up with blogging on the playoffs.  But Steve Blake was the key to the Laker’s Game 2 win. In Game 1 Brown, Odom and Bynum on the court was destroyed (8 minutes -10 points). In Game 2 Odom, Brown and Bynum was +10 points in the 7 minutes they played with Blake! .

April 19, 2011

Pacers Bulls Analysis

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:29 am

Who would have thought this series would be must see TV? I think the Pacers were robbed last night. Hibbert did not deserve offensive foul and Foster was pushed out of bounds.  But what are the keys to the series? Kyle Korver, Jeff Foster, and Mike Dunleavy.

The Bulls starting lineup of Bogans, Rose, Noah, Deng and Boozer is -3 points in 29 minutes and after adjusting for strength of opponent is playing 11 points worse per 48 minutes than an average lineup. Insert Korver for Bogans and Bulls are +15 points in 16 minutes and play 39 points better than average.  Korver has a +131 Impact rating which is off the charts while Brewer (-131) and Bogans (-46) have poor Impact ratings.

The Pacers need to play Foster and Dunleavy much more. They average arounf 15 minutes per game and Dunleavy has a +128 Impact rating and Foster a +71 Impact rating.

Note: Impact rating is like Adjusted +/- but based on how your team’s chance of winning changes while you  are in game.  Even for two games anything over +50 or below -50 indicates a significant effect on the the game.

April 18, 2011

Deconstructing the Spurs and Hornets Upsets

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 4:13 pm

Wow! Spurs and Lakers lose on same day. Who would have thought it? Let’s analyze each of these games, looking at key lineups and Adjusted +/- ratingsof key players for the game.

Lakers Hornets

Rose was great on Saturday but CP3 was “otherwordly.”  The lineup with Gray and Jack replacing Okafor and Bellenelli was +14 points in 7 minutes while Hornets starting lineup was -10 points in 16 minutes. Hopefully Gray is healthy because he was awesome. CP3 had Adjusted +/- of +31, Green +15, Gray +74!!! and Jack +38.

     For the Lakers the bench and Bynum were disasters.  Adjusted +/-  for Brown -46, Johnson -51, Odom -16 and Bynum -31, show that the Lakers have major isuues.

Spurs Grizzlies

We predicted on this website that with Manu out the Grizzlies would give the Spurs fits. When Mayo replaced Young the Grizzlies were +10 points in 9 minutes. Randolph  +15, Allen +16 and Mayo +11 keyed the Grizzlies win. For the Spurs Bonner -16 and Neal -28 really hurt them. Without a full strength Manu the Spurs will have their hands full.

April 15, 2011

PLayoff Keys

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:02 pm

All Numbers below are in points per 48 minutes Adjusted for strength of opponent.-

Hawks Magic

Jamaal Crawford totally keys the offense, while Curt Hinrichs has killed their offense. Al Horford has played poorly lately. If healthy watch for Jason Collins’ great defense off bench.  Dwight Howard deserves defensive player of year (adjusted +/- defense rating of-14) but little known Ryan Anderson has played fantastic (+14 Adjusted +/-) during the last 2 weeks.

Celtics Knicks

Lately Douglas, Jeffries and Walker have been great for Knicks. MOst of Celtics problems has been due to poor bench play by Murphy, Kristic, Pavlovic, Murphy and West. Cut out their minutes and go with Wafer, Arroy, Green, and an O’Neal off bench and Celtics will be a force to be reckoned with.

Bulls Pacers

Rose is great but the unsung key to this team is Deng’s great defense and the great bench defense from Asik (and to a lesser degree) Brewer, Watson, and Korver. Noah and Boozer are overrated as keys to Bulls success. Bulls should close every game with Brewer Deng Korver Noah and Rose. This lineup plays 35 points better than average per 48 minutes. For the Pacers Dunleavy’s return will help a lot but Rush’s defense lately (+18 ) has killed Pacers.

76ers Heat

Brand has fantastic Impact on the game (3rd in league). To have any shot Nocioni’s (adjusted +/- -12) and Turner’s (-10) minutes need to disappear. Hawes offense (-22) has disappeared during the last two weeks. For the Heat in addition to the Big 3 James Jones has an incedible impact on winning games. He needs to be on court when game is on line. Eddie House always has a favorable impact in the clutch.

Lakers Hornets

How could Kobe not be suspended for his remarks Tuesday night? Because the league wants the Lakers in the finals, that’s why.  Lakers get a walk in the park here over the crippled Hornets. Lately Kobe’s defense (+14) and Barnes’ offense (-13) have killed Lakers. Lately Bellinelli, Green and Ariza have played poorly. I see Laker 4-0 sweep.

Spurs Grizzlies

Manu (+13 Adjusted +/- and league’s 6th best Impact) totally keys this team. If he misses games or is subpar I see a Grizzlies victory. Lately Conley and Randolph have been great and Tony Allen (-10 defensive rating) has been a defensive stalwart. This could turn out to be a great series.

Thunder Nuggets

I am confident this will be the best series to watch, but will probably have the lowest ratings. Denver has been the league’s best team since Melo trade. Nene (+7 Adjusted +/-) and Felton (+8 Adjusted +/-) have been great. Birdman has been great (+22 Points rating last 2 weeks) lately and he needs to be healthy. Felton and Lawson on court Nuggets are 23 points better than average. For the Thunder the best thing about trade was not getting Perkins, but getting rid of Green so COllison could play more (+6 Points rating). Lately Maynor (+34 Impact) has really provided a spark off bench. KD is probably the league’s most consistent super star and this series should go 7.

Mavs Blazers

To win this series Mavs need to play Brewer more minutes than Roddy B. Roddy has a -7 Points rating and -9 points rating last 2 weeks. Brewer has a +13 points rating the last 2 weeks. Rudy and Andre Miller are underrated (+7 Points ratings) and Dallas must stop them to win. We predict Brewer’s defense will be a key to this series.

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