March 30, 2011

Random Thoughts March 30,2011

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:26 pm
  • Keith Goldner, a Northwestern math student, has started a new blog on football analytics (http://drivebyfootball.blogspot.com/). His first post is a great tutorial on how to evaluate football decision making based on expected points.
  • Sad that Mad Men will not return until 2012.
  • Please watch the  last season of Friday Night Lights on NBC! FNL is best show at capturing the life struggles of typical Americans.
  • Best show on TV to watch with your kids: Modern Family. Great acting, great writing, and every episode has a worthy moral lesson.
  • Best TV dramedy: Nurse Jackie on Showtime. Edie Falco plays an adulterous drug addict who is a Saint! You have to watch to understand what I mean.

March 29, 2011

Score tied: should you foul?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:27 pm

Henry Abbott of the great Truehoop.com site has created quite a stir by suggesting that if  the score is tied and your NBA opponent has the ball with <24 seconds to go in an NBA game you should foul them. I did a simple analysis of this situation and the decision is not clear cut.

    usfg 0.4          
    themfg 0.4          
    usotwin 0.5          
    themft 0.7          
                 
    do not foul foulwin        
    0.3   0.329        
          foul chance I win  
          0made 0.09 0.7  
          1 made 0.42 0.4  
          2made 0.49 0.2  
                 
      FT chance
0.029 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85
0.3 -0.048 -0.0705 -0.092 -0.1125 -0.132 -0.1505
FG chance 0.35 0.014 -0.00912 -0.0315 -0.05313 -0.074 -0.09413
0.4 0.076 0.05225 0.029 0.00625 -0.016 -0.03775
0.45 0.138 0.113625 0.0895 0.065625 0.042 0.018625

In the example shown I assumed each team hits 40% of their endgame field goals and the team with the ball makes 70% of FT’s and is in the bonus. I also assumed that each team has a 50% chance of winning in overtime. I assumed nobody takes any 3 point shots.  For this situation if we do not foul we win only if opponent misses and we win in OT. This happens with probability .5 (1-.4)=.3. If we foul opponent makes – FT’s 9% of time, 1 FT  42% of time and 2 FT’s  49% of time. As Byron pointed out, I am assuming fouling team rebounds all missed FT’s.

  • If opponent makes 0 FT’s we win if we make our last shot or win in OT. This occurs with probability .4 +.6*.5=.7.
  • If opponent makes 1 FT we win if we make our shot. This occurs with probability .4
  • If opponent makes 2 FT’s we win if we make our shot and win in overtime. This happens with probability .4(.5)=.2

Therefore if we foul we win with chance .09(.7)+.42(.4)+(.49).2 = .329.

Thus in this situation you should foul!!

The table above gives our chance of winning-opponent chance for various scenarios. The red numbers correspond to situations where fouling is beneficial.

Of course in a college game where other team is in 1-1 fouling is even better!

I also assumed that the opponent is equally likely to shoot any value between 65% and 85% from the foul line and each team is equally likely to  shoot any value between 30% and 45% chance of making a FG. Then fouling gives you a 2% smaller chance of winning than not fouling.

March 28, 2011

Final 4 Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:27 pm

Best tournament ever! I hope so much Butler-VCU winner triumphs. Here are odds Thus UK has 45% chance of winning tourney, 14% chance of winning 5 games, and 41% chance of winning only 4 games.

Team 4 5 6
Kentucky 0.4052 0.142 0.4528
Conn 0.5948 0.1262 0.279
Butler 0.4494 0.3916 0.159
VCU 0.5506 0.3402 0.1092

March 26, 2011

Elite 8 Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:43 am

For example, Kansas has a 12% chance of winning 3 games in tourney, 21% chance of winning 4 games, 21% chance of winning 5 games and a 46% chance of winning tournament,

Team 3 4 5 6
Kansas 0.1206 0.2056 0.21 0.4638
Kentucky 0.4624 0.231 0.1824 0.1242
Conn 0.4404 0.2918 0.1554 0.1124
Florida 0.3476 0.4354 0.1114 0.1056
UNC 0.5376 0.223 0.1456 0.0938
Ariz 0.5596 0.2542 0.1194 0.0668
Butler 0.6524 0.277 0.0456 0.025
VCU 0.8794 0.082 0.0302 0.0084

March 24, 2011

Updated NBA RAtings March 24

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:57 am

In what follows we give NBA team ratings based on last 15 days, last 30 days  and whole season. You can see that teams should be terrified of facing the new look Nuggets. Despite their great record, these numbers give little indication that the Spurs are the league’s best. Also the “new look” Celtics do not look like they should be co-favorites with Heat and Bulls.

Whole Season

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Chicago Bulls -0.75 -8.30 7.56
2 Miami Heat 2.13 -4.32 6.45
3 Los Angeles Lakers 1.46 -4.83 6.29
4 San Antonio Spurs 3.37 -2.48 5.84
5 Orlando Magic 0.52 -4.85 5.37
6 Denver Nuggets 8.55 3.23 5.32
7 Boston Celtics -3.78 -8.77 4.99
8 Dallas Mavericks 1.30 -2.93 4.23
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.73 0.50 4.23
10 Memphis Grizzlies 0.11 -2.73 2.84
11 Houston Rockets 6.34 3.60 2.74
12 Portland Trail Blazers -3.22 -5.57 2.35
13 Philadelphia 76ers 0.36 -1.49 1.85
14 New Orleans Hornets -5.30 -6.92 1.61
15 New York Knickerbockers 6.96 6.62 0.34
16 Phoenix Suns 5.57 5.30 0.27
17 Atlanta Hawks -4.93 -3.57 -1.36
18 Indiana Pacers 0.69 2.12 -1.43
19 Milwaukee Bucks -8.42 -6.67 -1.75
20 Utah Jazz 0.27 2.36 -2.09
21 Los Angeles Clippers -0.52 2.19 -2.72
22 Golden State Warriors 3.31 6.58 -3.28
23 Detroit Pistons -2.67 1.30 -3.97
24 Charlotte Bobcats -6.48 -2.33 -4.15
25 Sacramento Kings 0.52 5.65 -5.13
26 Minnesota Timberwolves 1.30 6.88 -5.58
27 New Jersey Nets -5.01 0.69 -5.70
28 Toronto Raptors 0.28 6.71 -6.44
29 Washington Wizards -2.55 6.08 -8.63
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -4.14 5.92 -10.06

Last 30 days

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 9.32 -2.86 12.19
2 Chicago Bulls -0.30 -10.76 10.46
3 Los Angeles Lakers 2.01 -7.31 9.32
4 Miami Heat 1.10 -5.06 6.16
5 Oklahoma City Thunder 2.47 -3.69 6.16
6 Houston Rockets 6.73 0.63 6.10
7 Orlando Magic 0.00 -5.87 5.87
8 Portland Trail Blazers -1.30 -7.07 5.78
9 Dallas Mavericks 3.40 -1.95 5.35
10 Boston Celtics -7.25 -11.20 3.95
11 Memphis Grizzlies 0.45 -3.41 3.86
12 San Antonio Spurs 4.48 0.62 3.85
13 Phoenix Suns 8.18 6.09 2.09
14 New Orleans Hornets -6.40 -8.04 1.64
15 Philadelphia 76ers 2.15 1.42 0.73
16 New York Knickerbockers 8.01 8.01 0.00
17 Atlanta Hawks -6.35 -4.69 -1.67
18 Los Angeles Clippers 0.16 3.39 -3.23
19 Utah Jazz 3.13 6.63 -3.50
20 Milwaukee Bucks -9.79 -6.28 -3.51
21 Indiana Pacers -1.69 1.82 -3.51
22 Detroit Pistons 0.01 5.01 -4.99
23 New Jersey Nets -2.25 2.97 -5.23
24 Sacramento Kings 4.06 9.90 -5.84
25 Golden State Warriors 2.23 8.53 -6.30
26 Charlotte Bobcats -9.50 -2.53 -6.96
27 Minnesota Timberwolves -2.77 4.29 -7.06
28 Toronto Raptors 1.48 8.55 -7.07
29 Cleveland Cavaliers -7.83 2.53 -10.36
30 Washington Wizards -3.94 10.31 -14.26

 Last 15 days

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 12.65 -3.78 16.43
2 Miami Heat 4.39 -11.86 16.25
3 Chicago Bulls 3.86 -9.97 13.83
4 Oklahoma City Thunder 0.94 -7.93 8.87
5 Orlando Magic -0.49 -7.65 7.16
6 Los Angeles Lakers 6.20 -0.85 7.05
7 Portland Trail Blazers -1.76 -7.91 6.15
8 San Antonio Spurs 6.56 1.13 5.44
9 Dallas Mavericks -0.38 -5.57 5.19
10 Houston Rockets 1.98 0.04 1.94
11 Memphis Grizzlies -3.52 -4.03 0.51
12 Boston Celtics -12.18 -12.50 0.32
13 Detroit Pistons 1.98 2.18 -0.20
14 Philadelphia 76ers 0.50 0.85 -0.35
15 New Orleans Hornets -0.76 -0.29 -0.47
16 Atlanta Hawks -3.07 -2.10 -0.97
17 Phoenix Suns 4.99 5.98 -0.99
18 Indiana Pacers 0.94 2.58 -1.63
19 Utah Jazz 5.68 9.04 -3.36
20 New York Knickerbockers 6.81 10.38 -3.57
21 Sacramento Kings 4.53 8.98 -4.45
22 Milwaukee Bucks -7.50 -2.50 -5.01
23 Toronto Raptors -2.43 2.89 -5.33
24 Golden State Warriors 3.50 9.17 -5.67
25 Charlotte Bobcats -7.35 -1.35 -6.00
26 Los Angeles Clippers 2.32 9.55 -7.22
27 New Jersey Nets -8.58 -1.24 -7.34
28 Minnesota Timberwolves -6.06 1.48 -7.54
29 Cleveland Cavaliers -11.31 2.56 -13.86
30 Washington Wizards -2.44 12.75 -15.19

 

March 21, 2011

Sweet 16 Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:12 pm

Here are sweet 16 odds.

For example, Ohio State has a 29.56% chance of winning six games, 12.26%chance of winning exactly 5 games, etc.

Team 2 3 4 5 6
Ohio State 0.2326 0.151 0.1982 0.1226 0.2956
Kansas 0.1766 0.1348 0.2152 0.228 0.2454
Duke 0.2514 0.2896 0.2298 0.0972 0.132
SDSU 0.4032 0.2982 0.1696 0.0638 0.0652
BYU 0.3846 0.2592 0.1934 0.098 0.0648
Wisconsin 0.267 0.3566 0.2064 0.1074 0.0626
UNC 0.3556 0.454 0.1118 0.0464 0.0322
Kentucky 0.7674 0.1034 0.0736 0.0326 0.023
Florida 0.6154 0.196 0.1198 0.0468 0.022
Conn 0.5968 0.2502 0.1052 0.0294 0.0184
Ariz 0.7486 0.162 0.0638 0.015 0.0106
Flo. St. 0.394 0.4618 0.091 0.0444 0.0088
Richmond 0.8234 0.0798 0.0628 0.0256 0.0084
Marquette 0.6444 0.2916 0.048 0.0112 0.0048
Butler 0.733 0.1882 0.0588 0.016 0.004
VCU 0.606 0.3236 0.0526 0.0156 0.0022

March 19, 2011

Odds for Round of 32

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:14 am

 

 Here are odds for Round of 32. For example, Kansas has 17.24% chance of winning championship, 13.96% chance of winning  exactly 5 games, 13.88% chance of winning 4 games, 22.38% chance of winning 3 games, 10.94% chance of winning 2 games, and 21.6% chance of winning only one game.

Team Team 1 2 3 4 5 6
Ohio State 1 0.144 0.1812 0.1472 0.1478 0.1152 0.2646
Kansas 33 0.216 0.1094 0.2238 0.1388 0.1396 0.1724
Duke 17 0.207 0.2674 0.1882 0.1524 0.0762 0.1088
Pitt 49 0.2024 0.3088 0.1736 0.1554 0.0862 0.0736
Purdue 43 0.1786 0.3416 0.2518 0.1068 0.0722 0.049
SDSU 31 0.2628 0.285 0.2264 0.1266 0.051 0.0482
BYU 59 0.287 0.2442 0.2362 0.1246 0.064 0.044
Wisconsin 55 0.331 0.3312 0.1398 0.1102 0.0494 0.0384
Notre Dame 47 0.2786 0.3374 0.2072 0.0854 0.0532 0.0382
Tex 23 0.3392 0.3636 0.137 0.094 0.0388 0.0274
Syracuse 11 0.3322 0.2908 0.2466 0.0716 0.0346 0.0242
UNC 15 0.3662 0.293 0.2232 0.0694 0.0278 0.0204
Kentucky 7 0.4302 0.3976 0.081 0.0548 0.02 0.0164
Conn 27 0.4462 0.2898 0.1534 0.0718 0.0226 0.0162
Florida 63 0.3184 0.3664 0.1838 0.0854 0.0328 0.0132
Cinn 25 0.5538 0.2598 0.114 0.051 0.0134 0.008
West Va 5 0.5698 0.3328 0.0514 0.0284 0.0124 0.0052
ILL 36 0.784 0.082 0.0798 0.0354 0.014 0.0048
Richmond 38 0.2522 0.577 0.1138 0.0408 0.0118 0.0044
Wash 13 0.6338 0.2206 0.1112 0.025 0.0062 0.0032
Marquette 10 0.6678 0.1956 0.1058 0.0222 0.0058 0.0028
Kans. St. 53 0.669 0.2128 0.0718 0.034 0.0096 0.0028
Ariz 21 0.6608 0.2402 0.0604 0.0294 0.0066 0.0026
George Mason 3 0.856 0.0884 0.0336 0.0158 0.0042 0.002
Mich 19 0.793 0.1288 0.0518 0.0178 0.0066 0.002
Temple 29 0.7372 0.1654 0.0688 0.022 0.0046 0.002
Gonzaga 58 0.713 0.1638 0.0854 0.0282 0.0076 0.002
Flo. St. 46 0.7214 0.1874 0.0682 0.0158 0.0062 0.001
Butler 51 0.7976 0.1472 0.0378 0.0136 0.003 0.0008
UCLA 61 0.6816 0.2256 0.0716 0.017 0.0034 0.0008
VCU 71 0.8214 0.1336 0.0372 0.0064 0.0008 0.0006
Morehead 40 0.7478 0.2316 0.0182 0.0022 0.0002 0

March 17, 2011

Updated NBA Ratings March 17

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:11 pm

Here are entire season NBA ratings . Each game given equal weight. Again I would not want to see Denver or Portland in the playoffs.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Chicago Bulls -1.64 -8.30 6.66
2 Los Angeles Lakers 1.02 -5.51 6.53
3 San Antonio Spurs 3.34 -2.89 6.23
4 Miami Heat 2.21 -3.65 5.85
5 Boston Celtics -2.39 -8.03 5.64
6 Orlando Magic 1.18 -4.19 5.38
7 Denver Nuggets 8.37 4.07 4.30
8 Dallas Mavericks 1.30 -2.64 3.94
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.24 1.67 3.57
10 Houston Rockets 6.65 4.50 2.15
11 Memphis Grizzlies 0.21 -1.94 2.15
12 New Orleans Hornets -5.39 -7.32 1.93
13 Philadelphia 76ers -0.29 -1.90 1.61
14 Portland Trail Blazers -3.93 -4.89 0.96
15 New York Knickerbockers 7.12 6.55 0.57
16 Phoenix Suns 4.88 5.20 -0.33
17 Atlanta Hawks -5.24 -4.63 -0.61
18 Milwaukee Bucks -8.72 -7.56 -1.17
19 Los Angeles Clippers -0.35 1.51 -1.86
20 Indiana Pacers 0.10 2.09 -1.99
21 Golden State Warriors 3.63 5.78 -2.14
22 Utah Jazz -0.15 2.15 -2.30
23 Charlotte Bobcats -5.87 -2.47 -3.39
24 Detroit Pistons -2.75 1.52 -4.27
25 Minnesota Timberwolves 1.42 6.15 -4.73
26 Sacramento Kings 0.00 5.24 -5.24
27 New Jersey Nets -4.70 0.99 -5.68
28 Toronto Raptors 0.50 6.78 -6.28
29 Washington Wizards -2.43 5.30 -7.73
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.34 6.45 -9.78

Here are last 30 day ratings. You can see Nuggets are on fire and the Wizards have played very poorly.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 8.27 -1.19 9.46
2 Chicago Bulls 0.19 -8.89 9.08
3 Los Angeles Lakers -1.21 -8.06 6.85
4 Boston Celtics -3.55 -10.04 6.49
5 Orlando Magic 0.01 -6.23 6.24
6 Dallas Mavericks 5.53 -0.24 5.77
7 Houston Rockets 8.56 3.15 5.42
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 3.29 -2.08 5.37
9 San Antonio Spurs 3.79 -1.22 5.01
10 Memphis Grizzlies 2.91 -0.51 3.42
11 Portland Trail Blazers -1.68 -4.51 2.83
12 Miami Heat -0.13 -2.88 2.75
13 New York Knickerbockers 8.59 6.62 1.98
14 Philadelphia 76ers 1.68 0.13 1.55
15 New Orleans Hornets -7.75 -8.96 1.21
16 Atlanta Hawks -10.02 -9.47 -0.55
17 Los Angeles Clippers -0.69 0.16 -0.85
18 Milwaukee Bucks -10.60 -9.70 -0.90
19 Golden State Warriors 4.06 5.23 -1.18
20 Phoenix Suns 5.23 6.68 -1.45
21 Charlotte Bobcats -5.77 -3.33 -2.44
22 New Jersey Nets -1.58 3.47 -5.05
23 Utah Jazz 0.50 6.29 -5.79
24 Sacramento Kings 3.44 9.44 -6.00
25 Minnesota Timberwolves -4.74 1.41 -6.15
26 Indiana Pacers -3.20 3.06 -6.25
27 Toronto Raptors 1.56 8.55 -6.98
28 Detroit Pistons 1.18 8.63 -7.45
29 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.69 5.05 -8.74
30 Washington Wizards -4.19 9.47 -13.66

Here are ratings just based on last 10 days. You can see the Nets have really improved lately but the Nuggets have been by far the league’s best team. Bulls and Lakers have been amazing defensively. Clippers are also vastly improved.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 11.34 -6.87 18.20
2 Los Angeles Clippers 6.68 -5.56 12.23
3 Chicago Bulls -3.40 -13.61 10.21
4 Los Angeles Lakers -3.99 -13.47 9.48
5 Boston Celtics -1.59 -10.80 9.21
6 Portland Trail Blazers -3.59 -10.17 6.58
7 Orlando Magic 1.90 -3.85 5.75
8 San Antonio Spurs 5.38 0.05 5.33
9 Golden State Warriors 5.24 0.76 4.48
10 Houston Rockets 7.83 4.37 3.46
11 New Jersey Nets 6.97 3.80 3.16
12 Miami Heat 2.97 0.33 2.63
13 Oklahoma City Thunder 3.02 0.64 2.38
14 New Orleans Hornets -6.36 -8.49 2.13
15 Milwaukee Bucks -12.88 -13.13 0.26
16 Dallas Mavericks 6.13 6.79 -0.67
17 Phoenix Suns 6.26 7.04 -0.78
18 Charlotte Bobcats -7.02 -6.21 -0.82
19 Philadelphia 76ers 4.82 6.03 -1.22
20 Detroit Pistons 2.54 6.27 -3.73
21 Minnesota Timberwolves -6.68 -2.05 -4.63
22 Toronto Raptors 1.88 8.15 -6.26
23 Atlanta Hawks -9.07 -2.66 -6.41
24 New York Knickerbockers 3.32 11.46 -8.14
25 Sacramento Kings 1.24 9.42 -8.18
26 Memphis Grizzlies -4.11 4.11 -8.22
27 Indiana Pacers -8.19 1.99 -10.18
28 Utah Jazz 0.94 12.62 -11.68
29 Washington Wizards -2.24 9.54 -11.78
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -9.32 3.48 -12.80

March 13, 2011

NCAA Odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:19 pm

Using the well-respected Sagarin ratings, here are the odds for the tournament. The given numbers are the chances that each team wins each possible number of games (I do not count a play-in win as a win here). So for Ohio State, for example, they have a 24.3 chance of winning the championship, a 12.2% chance of losing in the finals, a 15.96% chance of losing in the national semis, a 15.2% chance of losing in the regional final, a 16.9%  chance of losing in the regional semifinal, a 15.12% chance of losing in the second round, and a .28% chance of losing in the first round.

Team 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Ohio State 0.0028 0.1512 0.169 0.152 0.1596 0.1224 0.243
Kansas 0.013 0.1954 0.19 0.1864 0.1264 0.1184 0.1704
Duke 0.0188 0.1722 0.2762 0.2054 0.1596 0.0746 0.0932
Pitt 0.0244 0.1906 0.2558 0.195 0.1616 0.085 0.0876
SDSU 0.0476 0.2082 0.2444 0.2314 0.1424 0.0622 0.0638
BYU 0.0852 0.2594 0.2164 0.1898 0.1284 0.0676 0.0532
Notre Dame 0.0608 0.2432 0.2986 0.2202 0.0834 0.0562 0.0376
Syracuse 0.0826 0.2766 0.2524 0.2374 0.0804 0.036 0.0346
Purdue 0.0654 0.3198 0.2644 0.1922 0.0752 0.0484 0.0346
Tex 0.1834 0.232 0.2948 0.1376 0.0874 0.0366 0.0282
UNC 0.1186 0.2724 0.278 0.2096 0.0698 0.0286 0.023
Conn 0.1396 0.354 0.2762 0.134 0.0568 0.0212 0.0182
Louisville 0.1018 0.2936 0.386 0.1102 0.0572 0.0332 0.018
Wisconsin 0.312 0.2544 0.2238 0.1004 0.062 0.0298 0.0176
Kentucky 0.1868 0.311 0.3466 0.0792 0.0456 0.0168 0.014
Florida 0.0774 0.299 0.334 0.171 0.0764 0.0298 0.0124
Cinn 0.4014 0.3058 0.1716 0.067 0.0352 0.0132 0.0058
Georgetown 0.236 0.4376 0.1786 0.095 0.0294 0.0176 0.0058
West Va 0.3406 0.3382 0.24 0.043 0.0234 0.0098 0.005
Ut. St. 0.4534 0.3022 0.1586 0.0474 0.0262 0.0084 0.0038
Ariz 0.2772 0.4322 0.1966 0.06 0.0242 0.0064 0.0034
St. John’s 0.4144 0.3714 0.104 0.0678 0.0322 0.007 0.0032
UNLV 0.4356 0.437 0.065 0.0388 0.0158 0.0054 0.0024
Wash 0.3718 0.3742 0.1558 0.0764 0.0154 0.0042 0.0022
Mich. St. 0.438 0.3446 0.1436 0.054 0.014 0.0038 0.002
Kans. St. 0.5466 0.2672 0.1228 0.0392 0.0176 0.0048 0.0018
Marquette 0.4748 0.3404 0.1048 0.0622 0.0116 0.0046 0.0016
Missouri 0.5986 0.229 0.1116 0.0404 0.0156 0.0032 0.0016
Richmond 0.5438 0.2968 0.128 0.0238 0.005 0.0012 0.0014
Temple 0.4376 0.4122 0.0954 0.0378 0.0124 0.0034 0.0012
Vandy 0.4562 0.327 0.1656 0.0338 0.0124 0.0038 0.0012
Mich 0.4274 0.4574 0.0756 0.027 0.0098 0.0018 0.001
Villanova 0.4682 0.447 0.0494 0.0232 0.0088 0.0026 0.0008
Tex. A and M 0.4424 0.3812 0.1154 0.0424 0.0134 0.0044 0.0008
ILL 0.5644 0.3554 0.0476 0.0206 0.0078 0.0036 0.0006
Flo. St. 0.5576 0.3262 0.085 0.0242 0.0054 0.001 0.0006
Old Dominion 0.4506 0.423 0.0802 0.029 0.013 0.0036 0.0006
Clemson 0.7956 0.1276 0.0654 0.0072 0.0032 0.0004 0.0006
George Mason 0.5318 0.399 0.0396 0.0206 0.0066 0.002 0.0004
Xavier 0.5252 0.3146 0.0964 0.0488 0.012 0.0026 0.0004
Tenn 0.5726 0.3536 0.0524 0.016 0.004 0.001 0.0004
Butler 0.5494 0.3644 0.0586 0.0212 0.004 0.002 0.0004
Bellarmine 0.688 0.1762 0.098 0.0242 0.0104 0.0028 0.0004
UCLA 0.562 0.293 0.1064 0.0278 0.0092 0.0012 0.0004
Oak 0.8166 0.114 0.058 0.0082 0.0024 0.0006 0.0002
Penn State 0.5624 0.3424 0.066 0.0222 0.0054 0.0014 0.0002
Gonzaga 0.5856 0.3034 0.066 0.0296 0.0124 0.0028 0.0002
VCU 0.9086 0.0762 0.012 0.0022 0.0002 0.0006 0.0002
Princeton 0.8132 0.1312 0.05 0.0046 0.001 0 0
IND St 0.9174 0.0684 0.0124 0.0016 0.0002 0 0
Ga 0.6282 0.2604 0.0786 0.0276 0.0046 0.0006 0
Long Island 0.8814 0.093 0.0216 0.004 0 0 0
Hampton 0.9812 0.0168 0.002 0 0 0 0
Memp 0.7228 0.2218 0.0444 0.0092 0.0016 0.0002 0
Bucknell 0.8604 0.1112 0.0258 0.0024 0.0002 0 0
No. Col. 0.9524 0.0372 0.009 0.0014 0 0 0
BU 0.987 0.0122 0.0008 0 0 0 0
Morehead 0.8982 0.0826 0.017 0.0022 0 0 0
St. Peter’s 0.9346 0.0558 0.009 0.0006 0 0 0
Akron 0.9392 0.0494 0.011 0.0004 0 0 0
Wofford 0.9148 0.0658 0.0166 0.0026 0 0.0002 0
UCSB 0.9226 0.0634 0.013 0.0008 0.0002 0 0
Tex San An 0.9976 0.0024 0 0 0 0 0
Ala. St. 0.9996 0.0004 0 0 0 0 0
UAB 0.8638 0.092 0.04 0.0026 0.0008 0.0008 0
USC 0.8554 0.1106 0.026 0.007 0.0008 0.0002 0
Asheville 0.9804 0.0174 0.002 0.0002 0 0 0
Ark Little Rock 0.9952 0.0046 0.0002 0 0 0 0

 

If you want the chance of each team winning at least a given number of games, look below; Thus Ohio State has has a 52.5% chance of making the Final 4. I used the raw Sagarin ratings. So for example, the rating for BYU is based on the whole season, not just on their recent games.

Team >=1 >=2 >=3 >=4 >=5 >=6
Ohio State 0.9972 0.846 0.677 0.525 0.3654 0.243
Kansas 0.987 0.7916 0.6016 0.4152 0.2888 0.1704
Duke 0.9812 0.809 0.5328 0.3274 0.1678 0.0932
Pitt 0.9756 0.785 0.5292 0.3342 0.1726 0.0876
SDSU 0.9524 0.7442 0.4998 0.2684 0.126 0.0638
BYU 0.9148 0.6554 0.439 0.2492 0.1208 0.0532
Notre Dame 0.9392 0.696 0.3974 0.1772 0.0938 0.0376
Syracuse 0.9174 0.6408 0.3884 0.151 0.0706 0.0346
Purdue 0.9346 0.6148 0.3504 0.1582 0.083 0.0346
Tex 0.8166 0.5846 0.2898 0.1522 0.0648 0.0282
UNC 0.8814 0.609 0.331 0.1214 0.0516 0.023
Conn 0.8604 0.5064 0.2302 0.0962 0.0394 0.0182
Louisville 0.8982 0.6046 0.2186 0.1084 0.0512 0.018
Wisconsin 0.688 0.4336 0.2098 0.1094 0.0474 0.0176
Kentucky 0.8132 0.5022 0.1556 0.0764 0.0308 0.014
Florida 0.9226 0.6236 0.2896 0.1186 0.0422 0.0124
Cinn 0.5986 0.2928 0.1212 0.0542 0.019 0.0058
Georgetown 0.764 0.3264 0.1478 0.0528 0.0234 0.0058
West Va 0.6594 0.3212 0.0812 0.0382 0.0148 0.005
Ut. St. 0.5466 0.2444 0.0858 0.0384 0.0122 0.0038
Ariz 0.7228 0.2906 0.094 0.034 0.0098 0.0034
St. John’s 0.5856 0.2142 0.1102 0.0424 0.0102 0.0032
UNLV 0.5644 0.1274 0.0624 0.0236 0.0078 0.0024
Wash 0.6282 0.254 0.0982 0.0218 0.0064 0.0022
Mich. St. 0.562 0.2174 0.0738 0.0198 0.0058 0.002
Kans. St. 0.4534 0.1862 0.0634 0.0242 0.0066 0.0018
Marquette 0.5252 0.1848 0.08 0.0178 0.0062 0.0016
Missouri 0.4014 0.1724 0.0608 0.0204 0.0048 0.0016
Richmond 0.4562 0.1594 0.0314 0.0076 0.0026 0.0014
Temple 0.5624 0.1502 0.0548 0.017 0.0046 0.0012
Vandy 0.5438 0.2168 0.0512 0.0174 0.005 0.0012
Mich 0.5726 0.1152 0.0396 0.0126 0.0028 0.001
Villanova 0.5318 0.0848 0.0354 0.0122 0.0034 0.0008
Tex. A and M 0.5576 0.1764 0.061 0.0186 0.0052 0.0008
ILL 0.4356 0.0802 0.0326 0.012 0.0042 0.0006
Flo. St. 0.4424 0.1162 0.0312 0.007 0.0016 0.0006
Old Dominion 0.5494 0.1264 0.0462 0.0172 0.0042 0.0006
Clemson 0.2044 0.0768 0.0114 0.0042 0.001 0.0006
George Mason 0.4682 0.0692 0.0296 0.009 0.0024 0.0004
Xavier 0.4748 0.1602 0.0638 0.015 0.003 0.0004
Tenn 0.4274 0.0738 0.0214 0.0054 0.0014 0.0004
Butler 0.4506 0.0862 0.0276 0.0064 0.0024 0.0004
Bellarmine 0.312 0.1358 0.0378 0.0136 0.0032 0.0004
UCLA 0.438 0.145 0.0386 0.0108 0.0016 0.0004
Oak 0.1834 0.0694 0.0114 0.0032 0.0008 0.0002
Penn State 0.4376 0.0952 0.0292 0.007 0.0016 0.0002
Gonzaga 0.4144 0.111 0.045 0.0154 0.003 0.0002
VCU 0.0914 0.0152 0.0032 0.001 0.0008 0.0002
Princeton 0.1868 0.0556 0.0056 0.001 0 0
IND St 0.0826 0.0142 0.0018 0.0002 0 0
Ga 0.3718 0.1114 0.0328 0.0052 0.0006 0
Long Island 0.1186 0.0256 0.004 0 0 0
Hampton 0.0188 0.002 0 0 0 0
Memp 0.2772 0.0554 0.011 0.0018 0.0002 0
Bucknell 0.1396 0.0284 0.0026 0.0002 0 0
No. Col. 0.0476 0.0104 0.0014 0 0 0
BU 0.013 0.0008 0 0 0 0
Morehead 0.1018 0.0192 0.0022 0 0 0
St. Peter’s 0.0654 0.0096 0.0006 0 0 0
Akron 0.0608 0.0114 0.0004 0 0 0
Wofford 0.0852 0.0194 0.0028 0.0002 0.0002 0
UCSB 0.0774 0.014 0.001 0.0002 0 0
Tex San An 0.0024 0 0 0 0 0
Ala. St. 0.0004 0 0 0 0 0
UAB 0.1362 0.0442 0.0042 0.0016 0.0008 0
USC 0.1446 0.034 0.008 0.001 0.0002 0
Asheville 0.0196 0.0022 0.0002 0 0 0
Ark Little Rock 0.0048 0.0002 0 0 0 0

March 12, 2011

The NBA’s Post All Star Break World

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:59 am
  • Here are NBA team ratings based solely on games since all star break. Everyone says Lakers are hot but Nuggets have been amazing. Lakers  or Mavs may get Nuggets in 1st round and that should be quite a series!
  •  The Wizards have been playing even worse than Cavs did during  their record setting losing streak.
  •  Despite their gaudy record, I just do not think the Spurs are a great team. Their point differential is not that great and point differential is best predictor of future performance.
  • My guess is somebody will catch Charlotte and Indiana for last playoff spot in East.
Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Denver Nuggets 7.13 -4.64 11.76
2 Los Angeles Lakers -0.40 -10.74 10.33
3 Houston Rockets 9.86 1.36 8.50
4 Dallas Mavericks 6.89 0.05 6.83
5 Chicago Bulls -4.82 -11.58 6.76
6 Memphis Grizzlies 3.41 -2.48 5.89
7 Boston Celtics -1.78 -6.66 4.88
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.82 1.12 4.71
9 New Orleans Hornets -9.77 -14.29 4.53
10 Phoenix Suns 7.86 4.37 3.49
11 New York Knickerbockers 10.48 6.99 3.49
12 San Antonio Spurs 1.37 -1.08 2.44
13 Philadelphia 76ers 1.46 -0.46 1.91
14 Portland Trail Blazers -3.17 -4.37 1.20
15 Los Angeles Clippers -0.49 -0.86 0.37
16 Orlando Magic -0.82 -0.98 0.16
17 Atlanta Hawks -9.01 -8.15 -0.86
18 Milwaukee Bucks -10.39 -9.01 -1.38
19 Minnesota Timberwolves 0.30 2.08 -1.79
20 New Jersey Nets 1.54 4.24 -2.71
21 Miami Heat -2.32 0.84 -3.16
22 Utah Jazz 0.05 5.19 -5.14
23 Golden State Warriors 3.20 8.63 -5.43
24 Detroit Pistons 0.78 6.27 -5.49
25 Toronto Raptors 4.38 10.96 -6.58
26 Cleveland Cavaliers -1.86 4.81 -6.67
27 Charlotte Bobcats -8.95 -1.70 -7.25
28 Sacramento Kings 1.49 9.47 -7.98
29 Indiana Pacers -6.75 1.65 -8.40
30 Washington Wizards -5.46 8.97 -14.42
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