I think the Melo trade may  turn out well for both teams. Although I do not think Melo is a Top 10 player (more on this later), many other people in the league do. The trade gives the Knicks a great chance (if they can afford him) to get Chris Paul who is a Top 10 player.  Also the Knicks kept Landry Fields who is better than any of the guys they gave up. (+6 Points and +29 Impact!)

  Here are our Adjusted +/- and Impact ratings for the principals in the trade (for this season)

Of course, Melo was distracted and can probably play better. But for last 3 years here are his numbers.

Note he has never been a better than average defender. George Karl said as much this week. Felton has not played well this year but averaged a +2 Adjusted +/- the last 3 years. So the Nuggets got 3 solid players and a high potential guy (Mozgov) when they might have ended up with nothing. If Chris Paul does not come, I suspect the Knicks will be very disapointed. This is a true test for Adjusted +/- which deems Wade and James as superstars, but indicates that Amare and Melo are overrated by the public.

On the Celtics-OKC trade, I think OKC realized that Bynum-Gasol duo killed them last year and Perkins (if healthy0 can change that equation. Also Nate Robinson is an above average NBA guard (not just backup guard) and that is one oftheir weaknesses. Green killed OKC in playoffs last year and with Green and Kristic out and Westbrook and KD in OKC is 10 points better than average this year. When Kristic and or Green is in with their two stars OKC is only 3 points better than average.

The Celtics did not really need Perkins if Shaq or O’Neal are healthy. but I think they will find Green is not as good as the box score stats indicate. Also without Daniels and Robinson who backs up Rondo and Allen in the playoffs?

 For Houston, Thabeet and Dragic have both played poorly this year with Adjusted +/- worse than -10, which is really bad. It looks like Houston is clearing cap room for the future, but you have to wonder for how long the Rockets get a free pass for going under .500.

Portland got a steal in Gerald Wallace. He was playing at near All-Star level till recently. Charlotte got nothing to help them. If Roy stays healthy, watch out for Blazers in the playoffs.

Crow asked for some analysis of the Miami Heat. Here are adjusted +/- numbers per 48 minutes for each combo of Big 3 in (Through 2-24).

Thus with only James in Heat are 10 points better than average

Here are how each pair of Heat players in does together (first table), one in one out ( row player in column player out, 2nd table) and both out (third table).

• Here are updated NBA ratings. More weight is given to more recent games.
• I would bet 76ers get <1% of the press coverage of the Knicks but they are a better team due mostly to Elton Brand’s Amazing Play!
• Jazz are quickly falling off the playoff map while Grizzlies and Blazers should make the playoffs.
• I believe with a healthy Camby and Roy  and the newly acquired Wallace Portland will he a tough out in Round 1.

Note that the 76ers and  Grizzlies are underrated by most fans. Mavs would be much higher if you ignore time Dirk was out.

My friends know I do not get upset often. But I become livid when people make judgements that are totally “illogical.’ There is no doubt in my mind that this year Steve Nash has been a better player than Kobe. Every midseason MVP article I have seen has Kobe in the top 10 and omits Nash. Kobe is an all-star and Nash is not. I do not care about PER, Win Score, or Win shares.  I can show below that this year Nash has been more valuable thab Kobe. If my logic is wrong let me know.

The Suns play 8 points better than average  per 48 min (adjusted for strength of opponent ) with Nash in. The Lakers play 7 points better than average with Kobe in.  So the  Suns are better with Nash in than Lakers are with Kobe in. Kobe has better (Bynum, Gasol, Odom, Fisher) teammates than Nash. So how can  Kobe be better than Nash? Here are more  points in favor of Nash

• Gasol and Odom in with Kobe out Lakers are 12 points better than average.
• Odom in and Kobe out Lakers are 8 points better than average.
• With Nash out Suns are a horrid -21 and Lakers are still 1 points better than average.
• With Nash in and Carter out Suns are 9 points better than average.

Let me know where I am wrong or admit Nash has been a better player this year than Kobe.

Again, I give around twice as much weight to most recent game as first game of season. Hawks are not nearly as good as their record indicates and Grizzlies are much better than their record indicates. If the WOlves could play defense they would be pretty good! The Mavs continute to win but drop in the rankings because they barely beat Cavs and Kings. These ratings are based on points not W-L.

Spurs have retaken top spot over Celtics. Jazz plummet to #17. Again we give more weight to more recent games. The ratings of the top teams keep dropping, indicating slightly more parity in recent weeks.

Props to the Packers for winning the Super Bowl We had them as the NFC’s best team from mid November onward. On the fourth and 5, however, near the  end of  the game the Packer’s should have eschewed the FG and went for the TD, See Brian Burke’s great analysis at http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/02/super-bowl-45-analysis.html#more.

• Top 6 teams are really close.
•  Again I give more weight to more recent games.
•  Bulls great defense gets no credit from the media.
•  The 76ers appear to be a better team than the overhyped Knicks.
• Memphis gets no credit for being one of the league’s 10 best teams!
•  Unfortunately Cavs are in a class by themselves.

Based on our Adjusted +/- ratings and Impact ratings here are our all-star teams. A points rating of say +21 means that after adjusting for the players a player has played with and against the player in our estimation has added 21 points more per 48 minutes than an average NBA player to his team’s performance level. A +10 offense rating  means that the player has added 10 points more per 48 minutes to his team’s scoring than an average NBA offensive player . A -10 defense rating means a player has decreased the opponent’scoring by 10 points per 48 minutes more than an average NBA defensive player.

Impact weights time segments more when the game is on the line.  Anything over +30 is pretty good and over +50 is amazing. Note that Derrick Rose is not that great on many advanced stats but he shines on Impact!!

So where is Dwight Howard. Dwight hasa mediocre Impact rating of +5 so I left him off.

   More importantly, where is Kobe? Kobe has a negative adjusted +/- this year, so he cannot make this all star team. Kobe’s defensive rating is +6. With Kobe on the court Laker opponents shoot 49% and with Kobe off the court Laker opponents only shoot 44%.  This is consistent with Kobe’s poor defensive rating.

Note: I originally listed only 11 West all stars and 13 East all stars. Next on my list would be David West (F, +8 points, +2 offense, -6 defense 29 Impact0 and Steph Curry (G, +8 points, +12 offense, +4 defense,17 Impact)